Posted Tuesday, November 30, 2010 01:34 PM
2-1 last night. I shouldn't of messed with the total in the UVA game as the other two I picked spot on Looking at one big play tonight.
Gtown-1 -2.5u: This matches my biggest POY. I've watched Mizzou closely as they are one of my favorite teams to back. I love how they play 40 minutes of intense full court defense and they wear teams down often times getting their cover in the last 10 minutes.
However, offensively, they are short on weapons this year and I think that will hurt them vs. Gtown who is only giving up 39% shooting on the season. Mizzou has to score off turnovers created by their pressure but Gtown has experienced guards back with Wright and Freeman who will not only handle the pressure and minimize turnovers but they will score against the press on the back end.
Gtown is also shooting 44.4% from 3 this year. I like this spot as the line is extremely tight because both teams are undefeated. Mizzou hasn't played anyone though that can challenge them athletically with LaSalle being the only team that comes close and LaSalle lead up until the 10 minute mark. G'towns experience should win out. It's a neutral site game and Gtown is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. Mean while, Mizzou is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.... [More]
Posted Monday, November 29, 2010 11:15 AM
1-2 yesterday. Wiscy just imploded in the last 10 minutes which will happen when you have trouble scoring. FSU wasn't ready for a big game. Got a couple road teams today that I like.
UVA +13.5 -1u: I wish I would have grabbed this at 15. UVA has struggled this year and I've watched them closely in Maui and it appears coach Bennett is having issues with some of his guys buying into the system. The Washington game was culmination as they got blown out by 40. They bounced back nicely against Oklahoma, playing the way Bennett wants them to play which is to execute on both ends in terms of moving the ball, shot selection and then on defense, playing solid man to man and not giving up anything easy. I thought they regressed a little vs. Witch St. but that's game 3 of a 3 day stretch on a beautiful island so there is a lot of variability to those game. I like that UVA seems to be moving in the right direction and I look for that to carry over on the road. Aside from my feeling that UVA is playing better, the other important angle is that Minny will be playing without Al Nolan who is far and away the most important play on this team. He controls the ball 70% of the time at least, and everything runs through him. Defensively, he is there best on the ball defender and he is the key to Tubby's ball pressure oriented man to man. I think they will struggle wit... [More]
Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 03:08 PM
Record: 35-28-3 $$ +1.8u
4-2 yesterday but still bitter as i felt the two losses I had capped correctly I'm not satisfied with my small profit and need to lock in for a nice run.
Wisc -3 -1.5u: N.D has feasted off turnovers in this tournament and they've been timely enough with their shooting to get wins. Wisconsin had 3 turnovers the last game, which is just unreal. The fact that their execution is near flawless at this pt. in the season is a real testament to Bo Ryan. Championship game and I'll take the championship coach. I think their defense will frustrate ND. Wisc has not shot well so any improvement makes this an easy cover.
FSU -4 -1u: This rivalry is always tight. I was surprised to see the line open so high and its now settled in at 4. I like the home team in this one with their ability to rebound and play defense. I'm not sold on Florida and their ability to execute. They turn it over too much and take bad shots. In a game where each possession is valuable, I like Florida St.'s chances as they will get better shots, and control the glass. The home court advantage is big here too as Flor hasn't been great on the road in the past year or so.
UNLV -4 -1u: Last game of the tourney on the west coast & I'll take the deeper team. V'Tech has played a close game yesterday and their starts have played a lot of minutes, and they predominantly are a jump shooting te... [More]
Posted Saturday, November 27, 2010 02:38 PM
Record: 31-26-3$: +.2u
1-2 yesterday in a struggle.
Locked in:Duke -18.5 -1u:
Not much to say other then Oregon is not a strong team and Duke is the best team in the nation. This team is focused so I don't see the let down on the road angle playing as a factor. Cuse -6 -1u:
Cuse struggled against an ackward Michigan squad but I think they will return to form against a young and developing G'Tech squad on a neutral court.
Posted Friday, November 26, 2010 02:27 PM
1-1 yesterday winning the bigger 1.5u wager on Georgia and dropping the later game with Temple who was on the wrong side of the a 16-1 run inside of 10 minutes. 3 favorites on the card today.
Locked in:Rutgers -3 -1u: I've cashed with Rutgers this year and I want to stay on them. I think this is an improved team especially on the defensive end as they are holding teams to 38% shooting. St. Joe's is a young team who is going to be very inconsistent this year. 2nd game on neutral court in an away venue doesn't bode well for a young group and I expect them to be somewhat flat. I like Rutgers to cruise 69-60.
Notre Dame -3 -1u: Really impressed with the grit and determination this team showed against Georgia. They had several opportunities to close up shop and accept defeat but Hansborough, Nash, and Abromitis wouldn't let it happen. My angle though in this one is really to fade California. This team has kept winning this year despite ugly performances. Temple basically beat themselves yesterday with turnovers and terrible shooting. Cal has mediocre talent and it is young talent. I think ND will present issues for them with their ability to shoot. I like ND and will give up the pts.
UCLA -2.5 -1u: UCLA definitely is on the up swing, and they are finally buying into the Howland system in terms of their tenacity on defense and their willingness to... [More]
Posted Thursday, November 25, 2010 12:58 PM
3-3 on a big card yesterday, but hit my 2.5u play of the year on Nova. Like a couple games on turkey day today. Time to start building this roll.
Locked in:Georgia +6.5 -1.5u: ND has put up impressive #'s against some bad comp so far this year. They return some solid pieces, but lost PG and all time leading scorer to graduation. ND so far this year is holding teams under 33% shooting which prob makes betters feel like this team is finally arriving defensively. Don't expect that to continue against quality teams. Brey is just not a good coach anyway you cut it as his squads consistently under achieve and it's always due to them being soft on the interior and in general on defense. Georgia brings and edge with them into this one, as they've been playing without their SEC preseson POY in Thompkins. I think they have plenty in the chamber thought o compete for 40 minutes and keep this within the spread. They will have to win the rebounding battle which I think they can do with their athletes and they will have to make FT's. I don't see why this team can't win out right, so I'll take the points.
Temple -5- 1u: I like this spot for Temple as Cal shortened this line dramatically with their upset of New Mexico. That game was at home for Cal where their young guys were comfortable. I expect them to get uncomfortable in a hurry facing the Temple defense tha... [More]
Posted Wednesday, November 24, 2010 03:38 PM
Record: 26-20-3 (56.5%)
3-2 yesterday. Felt like I forced the KState play even though I though I felt my hand was hot. I'm grinding into the green and am looking for a run through the holidays.
Nova -4 - 2.5u: This is my biggest play to date. The line movement is a bit strange as it opened at 6.5 and has dropped to 4 despite heavy public action on the cats. I really like the Nova guards and they come at you in waves. Fisher is the lead guard and is one of the best in the country. But its the depth with Stokes, Wayns, and Cheek that is impressive. MSG neutral court game and I love to back the stronger back court and I love Nova's advantage vs. UCLA especially with Lee not being 100% for the Bruins. UCLA has some strong developing pieces and they are much improved over last year but I don't think they have the guard play to keep this one close. Ben Howland is great once his system is in and I feel like its getting close but it's still not 100% installed and ingrained in the memories of this team. Other advantages for Nova will be the venue which will be more like a home game for them vs. the cross country travel for Bruins, overall depth (Nova has the bodies to compete on the boards), and the last head to head Jay Wright got at Howland by 20 plus. If it weren't for the strange line movement I'd make this a 3+ unit play.
Akron -2 -1.5u: Lots of covers expert a... [More]
Posted Tuesday, November 23, 2010 01:53 PM
5-1 in my last 6 and starting to get a decent feel. Got a decent size card tonight. Starting to see some spots develop.
Sparty -5.5 -1u: Perfect storm to create a relatively short line with Sparty struggling against DII Chaminade while UCONN survives and plays well in a test against a tough mid major. Bottom line here is Kimba Walker is THE scoring option for UCONN right now and I don't see a Izzo coached squad letting him get off. UCONN also thrives off of offensive rebounds and Mich St. is always tops in the country in controlling the back boards. I like Mich st. to open this up late.
Zags +2 -1u: Another opportunity created by yesterdays games. Zags got dealt with by a VERY tough KState squad who is the worst possible match up for this team, while Marquette hung tight with #1 Duke. If you told me I could catch some pts. in an neutral site game with the experienced Zags facing a youthful Marquette squad I would of said you're crazy. Reality is, the past two games have been a struggle for the Zags and Vegas has them on the hit list. Marq does appear to be very long, athletic and they played with a lot of intensity yesterday. Can they come back, a day later and keep that same pressure and intensity? My bet is no. I'll take Mark Few against the old water boy any day of the week on short notice.
Hampton +8 -1u: GW is on m... [More]
Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 11:02 AM
2-0 yesterday on the plays. Looking to carry momentum into the holiday week.
Locked in:Duke -12 -1u:
Marquette is having to rely on young inexperienced players to play significant minutes. Obviously Duke returns some serious pieces plus the addition of Irving at the pt. is huge. I think at this juncture, I want my money on team that's been there. Marquette may panic if they get down which could cause this to snowball.Detroit +6.5- 1u
: Detroit is my pick to win the Horizon and I'll stick with them in the early season. They've played two tough opponents extremely tough on the road in Cuse & NM. In both games, Ray McCallum their stud Frosh. struggled to shoot the ball. I think he will be much more relaxed and play well tonight. They have legitimate play makers and enough size to stay competitive on the glass. Miss St. is missing some key guys and obviously without Vernardo to man the middle, I think they need to adjust their defensive style. I think Detroit can hang tough and even have a chance to win.
Posted Sunday, November 21, 2010 06:00 PM
Now 0-4 on my multi-unit plays which is killing the roll. I need a run. Only a couple plays today.
Xavier +1- 1u: I like X to win this straight up. I'm still not sold on the Hall and while X has struggled at times, I feel like they are ready for a break out game.
Minny +4- 1u: I've watched both these teams play a few times this year and to me, WV just can't be trusted to cover spreads based on their terrible free throw shooting and their tendency to put the other team on the foul line. They clearly are a strong defensive team, and offensively they are finding their roles. I still think they are short a shooter/scorer to be considered a top 10 team. Minnesota is well coached and they have big bodies to battle on the boards. I think this game will be tight throughout and FT's will be critical.
Posted Saturday, November 20, 2010 11:40 AM
Lost both 2u plays yesterday (WV & Pitts) by a combined 3 pts. I feel like both were the right call but not getting the results. I did add X and Kentucky late yesterday but didn't get a chance to post so I'll leave them off the record. On to the next one...
Locked in:USC-2 -2u: I'm due to hit a 2 unit play and I'll back a much maligned Trojan squad on a neutral court vs. a 3-0 Bradley squad. Behind the 3-0 record, I feel like Bradley is an ideal fade candidate. They really struggle on the glass. USC will defend and rebound. They have to find pts though which is no gimme. I just like this spot for USC in a bounce bck from the very sloppy loss to Rider.
Dayton +5.5 -1u: I hit this line early this morning and now I wish I would of waited and grabbed 6.5. I still might add a unit. Dayton is a very solid team that returns a good core from the team that defeated ol' Piss in the NIT tournament last year on a neutral court despite shooting only 33%. Dayton returns their fire power and of course their stingy defense. I'm not sold on ol Piss at all, and I think this is a good spot for Dayton with the Rebels coming off an impressive victory against Murray St.
Ball St. +13 -1u: Experts are all backing Butler today which just shows you how many people are still riding on last years band wagon. Gordon Heyward was a first round NBA draft pick from a school t... [More]
Posted Friday, November 19, 2010 12:28 PM
Record: 15-12-3 (55.5%)
Rough day yesterday going 2-4-1 and losing my first multi-unit play. I'm going to keep grinding and it's on to the next one.
W.V -4 (bought hook) - 2u: 2 unit play on what I believe is a very strong WV team. I know this is a popular square play but I'll bite. WV is just so fundamentally sound defensively and they have waves of athletes. WV can get scoring from a variety of places including in transition and off the off boards. Vandy is not a deep team this year and they have to rely on 2-3 guys for all of their scoring. I think WV will lock them down early and often. I like WV by 8.
Pitt -4 (bought hook) - 2u: I felt like Illinois played right into Texas hands by making the game uptempo last night especially in the first half. Texas is a young team who will struggle in half court execution which happens to be Pitt's expertise. Jamie Dixon will have his guys ready after a mediocre performance last night vs. Maryland. At this pt. in the season, I'll give up a few points to take the more experienced and better coached team.
Davidson +4.5 -1u: I was impressed with Davidson especially with their young Frosh. As a team they defend hard and I have to believe they'll shoot better then 1-21 from 3. Nebraska is so atrocious offensively there is no way they should give up more then 2 points to anyone. Their coach seems like... [More]
Posted Thursday, November 18, 2010 11:17 AM
Record: 13-8-2 (62%)
One of those tough days yesterday as I felt really good about all 5 plays and ended 1-3-1. Tough .5 beat in the BYU game but the other misses were bad. Like a few favorites today.
SFla +7.5 -1u: This line keeps rising as it started at 6. SFla has struggled to begin the year while Central looks sharp. Flat out, 7.5 is too much for a team with superior athletes and a huge front court advantage. SFla lost to a quality S. Miss team with a good coach. I like that they garnered 20 assists last game as that tells me they are sharing the ball and playing together. Central has their back court in tact and they play well together. I think they will pull out the win but not a cover.
Minny-5 -1u: This just seems too short for me. Minn is not getting respect from Vegas. W. Kentucky has some people back but missing their top gun from last year in Slaughter. W. Kentucky's front line has done their scoring so far this year but none of them top 6'6. Minn strength is on the interior and they will come with Sampson 6'10, Mbakwe 6'8, Iverson 6'10. Their best athlete Williams 6'8 off the bench has shown great athleticism. I know, tall doesn't mean good, but Minnesota swallows teams with their ball pressure b/c they have such great help in the paint. I think they will frustrate WKy and do enough offensively to cover.
Richmond -5.5 -1u: Gotta ride w... [More]
Posted Wednesday, November 17, 2010 02:57 PM
My plays are 1-5u with 5 units being a super stone cold blow out type
pick. Early in the season, I tend to keep my plays smaller until I get a
3-3 on Marathon Tuesday. Learned a lot yesterday. I passed on some leans that I should of played with Georgia, K. St, SMS and Detroit. But "if's" don't count and they don't make me $$.
Wed. Locked in:
BYU -6.5 -1u: I know this is a rivalry, and I know Utah St. is well coached and always plays hard and tough. I think in this years match up, BYU returns too much experience in terms of scoring and they have an "x" factor with home court and Fredette. Utah St. trailed at half to Weber in their opener so this isn't a polished squad early in the season. They have a juco-transfer who looks like will be their go-to scorer. I think he will force the action, which isn't a good thing on the road. BYU also has revenge factor as they lost by 10 last year at Utah St. I think BYU handles them 74-64.
USC -11 -1u: Rider lost by double digits at UMASS who is a bottom tier Atlantic 10 team. They beat powerhouse (sarcasm intended) Lafeyette however they gave up 50% shooting. The results thus far don't indicate that they can keep this close on the road. USC basically rolls with 5 guys and they will keep the heat on the whole game. They have length across the front line and the backcourt h... [More]
Posted Tuesday, November 16, 2010 12:18 PM
Marathon Tues. and I'm ready to get in on the action. Good start to the year so far.
Locked in:Oral Roberts +7 - 1u:
This is a rivalry game in Tulsa. The series is back and forth and always competitive. The two teams are similar this year in that they have a blend of youth and experience. Tulsa it appears is having to adjust more this year. I just think this will be a tight contest. ORU was poor on the road last game with their top returning scorer going 0-10. I don't see that happening again. I'll take the chalk.
K. St -6
Posted Monday, November 15, 2010 10:26 AM
A great slate of games this week. I'll probably keep the card short tonight and spend more time preparing for the big day Tuesday.
Early Leans (write ups once I lock them in):
St. Johns +5
Posted Sunday, November 14, 2010 11:16 AM
Record: 4-2 - 66% $: +1.6u
Didn't have any action on Saturday but had a nice 4-1 Friday. I'm still looking at lines but have a few leans here to start.
Sunday Preacher Picks:
IU -5 - 1U: I like IU at home vs. the Horizon league Raiders. Wright St. is great at home in the Nutter center but don't have a great track record on the road. Wright St. boasts back court experience and will need to shoot the ball extremely well to stay in it. I think Watford and Creek will be too much on the inside, and Creans defensive philosophy with pressure D on the perimeter will ultimately wear down Wright St. I like IU by 8.
Ball St-5 - 1U: Sticking with the Indiana theme today, I like Ball St. at home. Ball St. has their starting 5 back and I think that experience will make a difference today. Ball ST. is traditionally a good home team as well so I look for that to carry over for ATS cover #1 this year.
Arizona -20.5 - 1U: A lot of chalk here but I have a lot of confidence in this Zona squad. I think they'll challenge in the Pac-10 this year with the talent they have returning. Last year they played a lot of young guys in a brand new system. Miller has his system installed now and it should pay dividends. Idaho St. isn't good at all BTW.
Clev St. -3 - 1U: Great matchup of Cleveland area schools if both are off to a solid 2-0 start. I'm going with experience over youth in this ... [More]
Posted Friday, November 12, 2010 02:41 PM
Opening night!!! I like to take a wait and see attitude the first week or so but I do find some value in the picks below. Good luck all!!
Friday Picks:Gtown Pk- 1U
: Revenge angle, coupled with what I feel is a talent gap with Gtown returning their back court. No doubt Old Dominion has experience back. They'll have to play perfect in the opener to win and it's too early for that. Gtown rolls by 5. Umass -5 1U:
Kellogg needs to win this year, even with a inexperienced line up and I think his focus on defense will pay off in the early going. Rider lost Thompson and they'll search to replace the scoring. I like UMass at home to cover the 5.Virginia -10 1U:
I feel like this line has a little of last years W&M squad sprinkled in but the reality is a lot of the scoring from last year is gone for the Indians. UVA returns Scott who to me is one of the more underrated big men in the country. Shakir and Z will man the back court. I like Virginia to lock down, Tony Bennett style defense, and cover the double digit spread.
Posted Monday, November 08, 2010 01:21 PM
Back for another year on covers. Can't wait to get started. College hoops is by far my strongest suit for capping. Last year was up and down but still ended in the green. Looking for a big season.
Going with 1-5unit plays this year with 5 being monster plays. I try to do write ups with all my picks. Best of luck covers community.1U: Pitts -12
: Pitt is one of the elite defensive teams in the nation under Dixon. That will not change this year AND they bring back a significant amount of their scoring. I'm big on PG play and Woodall is a good one for Pitt. He will set the tempo. Gibbs is an elite shooter in college bball. Wanamaker does it all and McGee is a quality anchor in the middle and top tier rebounder. I have much respect for the A10 and I think RI will be very competitive in that conference. But early in the season, defenses are always ahead of the offenses and I think this bodes well for Pitt. James is the clear go to scorer for RI and Pitt thrives off situations where their success is dependent on stopping 1 or 2 players. RI will have to hit outside shots to win and that's a tough prop playing at the zoo early in the year when the pace doubles that of practice and you have athletes in your face. I'll give up the chalk here and back Pitt.