Posted Tuesday, November 27, 2012 01:09 PM
Awful start. I might be fade work only but I really love one play tonight. I've taken off a few days to try and get a better feel. Early season is tough but I can't find it at all right now. It happens and I know if I stay the course I'll be around 50-60% by year end hoping to be on the high end. Just how it goes. Looking to start a winning streak of profitable days tonight and get it started with a big play..
Florida St -3.5 5u - This is a big play for me and I would probably have continued to watch had this line not posted. Tough, tough spot for Tubby's Gophers here and while I like this Minnesota team a lot, going into Tallahasse on a Tuesday night after a bunch of games and travel the last few weeks doesn't bode well. 3 games the past 5 days against top tier comp (Stanford, Memphis and Duke). Florida St. has stabilized well after the first game debacle vs. S. Alabama. They beat a good St. Joe team and a decent BYU team on a neutral floor. I'm looking for Florida St.'s defense to create their offense. In the half court, Sota is tough to score on 35% OPP FG. However, they've shown they are vulnerable to athletic teams who pressure and then run out of that pressure (see Duke result). Snaer is a good perimeter scoring threat and I look for him to get some open looks in transition. Florida St. can match them on the boards which has been key to Sot... [More]
Posted Wednesday, November 21, 2012 12:18 PM
: 4-8 $$: -4.3
Off to a bad start. A few bad beats (eg. Gtown yesterday) and some just flat bad calls. Gotta keep it 100 though, and post the good and bad. Looking for a little heat. BOL!
I'm looking for better #'s so nothing locked in yet.
Posted Tuesday, November 20, 2012 07:12 PM
Not my night last night. Full card tonight.
Georgetown +8.5 1.5u - Like the Hoya's length to bother Zeller and they appear to be executing better offensively than the Hoosiers at this pt in the season. Ill take the pts.
NDSU +1 1.5u - I backed Dukes last night and paid for it. They are playing uptempo but undisciplined. North Dakota won't rely as much on jump shots and I like their D a bit better.
Illinois -14 1u - This line has value based on the big upset last night. I like an experienced backcourt to dominate play and Illinois obviously shooting it well in Maui.
UCLA -12 1u - Georgia while catching IU flat last night are still not a good team at all. Bad shots, and lack of flat talent. I like UCLA to continue to gel with Shabazz. Anderson will bounce back as well. I faded them correctly last night, now I will lay the chalk.
Texas A&M -3 1u - ill take another shot at the aggies. This team is better than they showed last night.
North Texas +7 1u- Virg is a defensive team with Bennett a their coach but lacking fire power to lay 7 against an experienced squad with a top talent interior player in Mitchell.
Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 01:47 PM
First post of the season. I've been laying back a bit and trying to watch as much as I can to get a good feel. I've typically done well early season non-conference capping but we'll see.Kansas -12 1u
- Jayhawks showed some regression following the big match-up with Michigan St which was to be expected. I expect them to bounce back tonight and I think they will overwhelm Wash St.Georgetown +7
1u- I've not been impressed with UCLA. They still seem undisciplined to me and I think G'town will get great shots if they run their Princeton offense effectively. I do believe Otto Porter will play but even without I'll take the 7.Texas A&M +2 1u
- Finally, A&M has some perimeter players that can score. I like their experience on the inside as well and I think St. Louis is a fade until they get their best player back.Duques -7 1u
- This is more a fade of James Madison then anything else. They are not a good team and Duques will play hard nosed defense and get better shots.Marquette -4 1u
- Better athletes on the smaller court in Maui, and Butler has not figured out how they will score yet and their typically stout defense is a step behind early in the year. I hate to go against Brad Stevens b/c he's one of the best but Marquette similar to Xavier, will have too many athletes.
Posted Thursday, November 08, 2012 12:08 PM
First post of the NBA season. I like to watch the first week of the season and get a feel for the teams. These will be my first two posted picks. Have a good feel going 3-0 the last two nights. Hopefully it carries over. BOL to everyone!
Thunder -2 - I've been looking at this game. A couple things stand out here to me.
One, Chicago hasn't played anybody yet this year. Yes, they will come
with energy as it's a televised game in the middle of a home stand but
energy doesn't always equal wins and covers (captain obvious I know).
Secondly, you can cap OKC easiest by just looking at their trend for
turnovers and assists. When their assists are down, the ball is
sticking and while they have good 1 on 1 players, they tend to play
close games or lose. Subsequently, their turnovers go way up. Thibs
teams feast on turnovers even without D. Rose. Westbrook got killed by
the media and coaches after his last televised performance against the
spurs where he hogged the ball and took terrible shots. Last game he
came out and was moving the ball, had 8 assists. Tonight, look for a
good game from him and a fresh Durant. Plus, OKC has the bigs to
contend with Noah and Boozer which for the bulls they HAVE to generate
offense or else they can't stay in this game.
Vegas is vegas for a
reason and this short line will draw a lot of OKC action but I think... [More]