Posted Thursday, December 31, 2009 11:44 AM
Had a big 5-1 night last night which FINALLY pulls me into the green in terms of units. I got off to a horrible start this season but am proud that I've stuck with my plays and haven't forced anything to get back. BOL to everyone in the new year and lets make this money.
CBB week: 11-4-1
Overall CBB: 52-45-3
Wisc-6>8U- I've faded OSU with success since the Turner injury. And @ Wisc will be their toughest test yet. I don't see them being able to knock down the perimeter j's that they'll need to keep this close. Wisc is extremely well coached on defense and will take away Buford and Diebler's open looks. OSU has ZERO inside presence while Wisc has several big guys that can play. The boards will be key. I thought about making this a bigger play but OSU defends well on the road with that zone.
Loyola+8.5>6U- Home conference opener and they are getting 8.5 pts? Wright St. is a solid team who controls tempo and plays good defense. I have no doubts they'll compete and have a shot to win but 8.5 seems to heavy with the chalk. I'll take the home team and their young guys to respond in conf opener.
Wash St.-5.5 (bought pt.)>8U- I really like this spot for Wash St. at home vs an inconsistent Oregon team. Oregon has had no success on the road in the Pac-10 especially at Wash St. so I think the home team lays the points and then lays a beat down.
Posted Wednesday, December 30, 2009 11:32 AM
Love the card tonight. I think there is some real value with some home fav in conf action and a A10 dog at a mid major inflated favorite.
This week CBB: 6-3-1
Overall CBB: 48-44-3
Wed Locked in:
BCU144.5>10U- No clue why this total continues to go up other then I think there is head fake action. SC still playing undermanned without a solid inside presence. BC doesn't shoot well from the arch. I think this is a grind it out big east style game that'll finish in the 60's.
UMass+8>9U- Undoubtedly this line is inflated because of the lingering Harris injury. Also, UMass hasn't won a big game on the road although they've been competitive. Bruiser Flint's team is improving. Davidson, while battle tested, doesn't have the fire power this year to blow out a A10 squad. This chalk is heavy and I'll take it.
Baylor-3.5>8U- Baylor holds teams to 36% shooting. They have an inside out presence and L. Dunn is one of the more underrated players in my mind especially in neutral court big games (eg. their Big12 tournament runs the past few years). Ark still struggles with lack of depth. They can stroke when open and that means that have to get looks in transition. Baylor is well coached and will take away their run game with their long zone.
Cinci-1>7U- This was an early UNC lean. I think that Cinci is in desparate need of a big home win to take... [More]
Posted Tuesday, December 29, 2009 04:28 PM
Hitting on a high % the past several weeks. Hoping to stay the trend with a large card tonight.
Overall CBB: 45-42-3
Tuesday Locked in:
KState-18>6U- Clev St. is guard oriented and have to get to the basket. I think K. States size and athleticism takes them out of their offense. K. State needs to get to the foul line early and often to cover the large spread. I bet they do.
CRE-1>12U- Home conference opener in a series that is owned by home team. UNC big play tail as well.
LSU+10>6U- I've seen X play live a few times this year and they really are very reliant on Jordan Crawford to generate offense if they can just force it into the post for buckets. I like T. Mitchell to "D" up Crawford and the supporting cast of athletes at LSU will give X some trouble in transition. If LSU defends paint they have a chance to win. I think they do enough to cover.
C. Florida -12.5>6U- I like how C. Florida plays defense in the half court. They play a zone trapping offense and generate turnovers. Liberty is a terrible ball handling team. The shots C.Fl do get up are corner threes and Liberty does not shoot well.
Ill St -1.5>5U- Another home conference opener. Ill St. has won the last 3 at home vs. Witchita. The stats are pretty identical. I like the home court.
Parlay (bought pts.)
KSt-14.5 Purdue-10 LSU+11.... [More]
Posted Monday, December 28, 2009 11:50 AM
The overall record is over .500 as I've finally climbed out of the hole I dug with a horrible 4-13 start. Still operating at a loss but overall I'm trending warm as I've put together some solid weeks. BOL!!Overall CBB: 42-41-2
Monday Locked In:
WF-16>7U- I think that Wakes size and athleticism will quickly turn this into a route. Even with this being a road game, I don't see how this is competitive. WF only real opponent here is themselves as they are a young squad and have to prove they can bring it every night. I just think the talent gap here makes this a solid play on the road favorite and see a +20 pt win.
IU-22>5U- I think IU still gets capped as the team that won 1 big 10 game last year. This team is better, more talented and continuing to improve under Tom Crean. Their win vs. Pitts at home is an indication of what they can do. I don't think Bryant can compete in any facet of this game.
Posted Friday, December 25, 2009 01:16 PM
CBB Overall: 38-41-2
NE-5.5>6U- I think that SMU will turn it over enough to allow NE to get a lead and hold it. NE thrives off it's trapping half court defense and offensively I think Janning will get good looks shooting over smaller defenders.
W. Mich/CoC U143>7U- This total has moved steadily up which makes me a bit nervous. I see this game squarely in the 60's.
St. Marys-7.5>9U- This line reflects the struggles St. Mary's had with a very stout USC defense. Hawaii is a different match up and one that the bigger and stronger favorites should have no trouble with. Throw the home court out and lay the pts.
Posted Wednesday, December 23, 2009 11:53 AM
Better yesterday but still not getting all the bounces. 4-2 and hit my POY. Thanks to UNC for the early nod in that UAB direction. When you hit your POY and still are in the red that means there is work to do. Two solid plays for today.
Overall CBB: 36-40-2
Charlotte +7.5>12U- ODU in a let down spot even though they are at home. This is a game of contrast in terms of tempo. Charlotte needs to get this game going up and down a bit. I like Charlottes ability to score the ball and attack the rim. A lot of chalk for a 1 loss team who has a win @ Louisville on their resume.
UMASS+12.5>10U- I'll be interested to see how this line moves. 12.5 in a rivalry game where the favorite has had real issues on the offensive end seems fishy. That said, UMASS is young and inconsistent. My bet is that they gained enough confidence playng with Memphis to allow them to stay tight in this one.
Posted Monday, December 21, 2009 11:05 AM
A Sat. 2 forget put a halt to a nice hot stretch. Looking for a bounce back Monday. A few big plays.
UK-18.5>12U - Drexel coming off a west coast swing and I don't see them being able to dictate a tempo that allows them to cover. The more possessions the better for UK. Drexel lost by 18 to Villanova which seems like a good baseline to cap from but I think UK is stronger on the inside and they will attack the glass.
UTEP+3>10U - Honestly, this is more about tailing some hot cappers. Willie Warren scares me a bit as he has stepped up in every big game for Oklahoma but overall I think UTEP matches up well and will have redemption on their mind after they gave away the game to Miss.
App St+13.5>8U - Wish I would have gotten on this earlier but the line is moving and I don't see if coming back. UD with big injury problems. App St. under Buzz Peterson will be ready. I think they keep this close all the way to the wire.
Hou-13.5>8U- Houston plays with a different energy at home. I think they will dictate tempo and the Citadel won't have the depth at guard to keep up.
Tulane/LL U135>7U- Tulane plays slow and LL just doesn't have a ton of ability to score the ball. I think this is a battle of medicrity that doesn't produce pts.
Weber St. -3.5
Posted Sunday, December 20, 2009 01:51 PM
7-16FT's and 13 turnovers in the first half against CFlorida.
Posted Sunday, December 20, 2009 01:19 PM
Overall CBB: 26-30-2
Posted Saturday, December 19, 2009 11:50 AM
Overall CBB: 23-23-2 $:-21.9
Streak: 19 of last 27
Big card today including big play of the year.. Looking to stoke these flames.
UNC/TX U154.5>20U- Dallas Cowboys stadium first big bball event, two good teams that'll be jacked and ready to play defense. Poor shooting equals a nice under bet here.
LSU-11>7U- Like them to blow out a poor Rice road squad. LSU defense will create turnovers, and I feel a break out shooting game on a Saturday home court.
Xavier+6>8U- Butler is a good squad but they'll struggled with X's depth especially on the inside where they will pound the glass and defend the rim. This will be extremely tight throught so I'll take the chalk.
Nw/Standford O133>7U- Standford traveling across country for a Saturday afternoon game in snowy Chicago. I don't see them being motivated to play defense. NW ready to stroke some threes.
West Vir-15>7U- Cleveland St. gives up a terrible % and they have nobody to content with the big WV bodies. This should be a blow out.
Mich/Kansa O141>8U- I like Kansas to get their running game and secondary break going today, and they'll pound the glass for 2nd chances. Michigan will score just enough to contribute to this over.
Posted Friday, December 18, 2009 02:25 PM
Overall CBB: 20-22-2
Streak: 16 of last 23 for 69%
Posted Wednesday, December 16, 2009 02:15 PM
Things are warming up. Three games last night coming away with a 1-2 record but feel all three were capped well. Rider loses in OT in what should have been an easy cover. LTech shoots a huge 3% and shoots 43FT's in a "homer" win to cover over my pick Murray. All part of the fun:)
Overall CBB: 15-21-2
Streak: 11 out of last 16
Wed Locked In:
Ohio-1>8U- I like the Bobcats at home against a green road squad in Ill st. OU's biggest issue this year has been their shooting %'s. I believe they settle in at home and shoot much better tonight. Ill St. has some big bodies and they crash the boards. OU must compete on the glass. Again, at home the Bobcats rebounding margin has been improving. I like the Cats to win by 5.
SC-4>8U- The cocks are a different team at home and that'll show tonight. They are coming off a tough rivalry loss on the road so they must come out focused and with intensity which I think they do. Bottom line for me in this game, is the defensive pressure that the cocks will apply. Richmond has shown tendencies to settle for the long ball when a team plays good defense. If they settle for 3's at a 40% to total shot volume, this is a lock for the cocks. My money is on the home athletes.
UAB+1.5>7U- Home team 7-1 and is a dog against a youthful Cincinatti squad coming off a tough rivalry loss. UAB will prove they win at home tonigh... [More]
Posted Tuesday, December 15, 2009 05:03 PM
After a rough start to the year, I had a very profitable weekend hitting 8 straight at one point. 1-1 to start off the week yesterday.CBB Overall
TennU157>10U- This total has been on the move higher and I truly feel it's a head fake. Tennessee is a team that plays up-tempo but don't confuse that with run and gun. They play very good defense and hold teams to an average of 60 a night. Looking at Wyoming's offensive statistics and execution up to this point, and I truly feel that they will struggle to break into the 70's. I really foresee a 82-67 type game.
Rider+7>7U- Rider returns a lot of experience. And it just so happens that a lot of those returning guys are from Jersey. They love to play at Rutgers and I see them being super amped for this match up and I think they play well. Rutgers will miss one of their best inside threats albeit his replacement put up huge #'s in his first start. If Rutgers doesn't come out and match intensity, this could be a long night for them. I think this comes down to the last 2 possessions.
Posted Monday, December 14, 2009 12:30 PM
CBB Overall: 13-18-2
Streak: 8 out of the last 11.
Not seeing much on the card tonight that I like but looking for feedback.
Posted Friday, December 11, 2009 03:24 PM
Bad news first. Below is current CBB record and $$ loss.
Overall CBB: 6-15-2 $$: -83.3
Good news is went 2-0 yesterday.
Tenn-20>10U- Key stat to support this pick is the horrible assist to turnover ratio that Mid Tenn St has sported thus far. Tenn will apply pressure throughout and their pressure is top 10 in the country type pressure. Add to that that this dog shoots poorly from behind the arc and the fact that Tenn is a long team with good shot blocking and I think dog struggles to score. Tenn will pound offensive boards. This is a lock. I had to give up so much chalk but like MSU yesterday, this is no doubter.
Locked in Teaser>7U:
Dayton-1- I basically like UD to win but not much more. They haven't proven they can put together 40 minutes yet defensively and offensively they struggle to shoot the ball. However, I think in this game their defense will generate enough offense to win. ODU has struggled but have a renewed emphasis on defense. Under is good here too.
WKU +15.5 - I'm not sold on Vandy just yet. I think they are overrated and have been capped too aggressively. Illinois exposed some of their weaknesses. WKU has shot the ball extremely poor this year. I have to think that gets better and Vandy has not been a defensive force this year and give up a decent % behind the arc.
Posted Wednesday, December 09, 2009 01:20 PM
Awful start. Time to turn it around.Locked in:GW-2>8U
- I like GW at home even with the young team. They play good defense. I don't think Providence is disciplined enough to get good shots. GW has the athletes to win the glass as well.Purdue-24>8U-
Purdue will win big and it'll be ugly. In-state game makes no difference as Valpo is really weak this year and can't guard anybody. On top of that their only scoring threat will be neutralized by J. Johnson.Wisc-5>8U
- This game hasn't been close the past couple years. I know this has trap written all over it but this Wisc team is different this year. They have athletes on their front line and great guard play. WGB struggles on the boards and that'll be magnified tonight.NM-6>8U
- This line is moving fast. SD can't compete with these athletes. I don't see a big road let down.Wash St-6.5>8U
- This line is moving as well. I think it was capped wrong due to Idaho's strong win against Portland and Wash St's past couple losses. At Wash St, this is a double digit win.Leans:
Posted Tuesday, December 08, 2009 01:03 PM
Toledo +12.5 >8U