Posted Monday, December 05, 2011 07:09 PM
4-0 on Sunday. Nice bounce back from a wobbly Saturday. I'm starting to have a better feel now that there is more data and I've had a chance to watch more games. Good luck.
One play today and it's a big one.
St. Johns -1.5 2.5u--> Biggest play of the year thus far. Taking some profits from yesterday and rolling them into this play. Look, I know this line stinks and it's Dickie V night in Detroit and there are whispers that Holman is back, but the bottom line is Detroit just does not play well together, they appear poorly coached and they are coming off back to back home conference losses, one to one of the worst teams in the league in Youngstown St. Usually in scenarios like this, it's a no play but I can't pass up the value in taking a Big East school, albeit on the road, that has a far superior front line w/ God's Gift manning the paint and better coaching. St. Johns is young, a bit undisciplined and have not demonstrated any consistency with their shooting. Bottom line for them is, when they win they make shots (+50%) and when they lose they don't (<39%). Detroit gives up better than 46% shooting to their opponents. Detroit lacks a 3 point shooter and with Minnerath out and Holman yet to play, have zero post presence. There is always risk with every bet, and Detroit could come out inspired at home and catch St. Johns flat on the road against a mid-major b... [More]
Posted Sunday, December 04, 2011 02:34 PM
3-5 yesterday for a rough Saturday. Bounce back.
Wichita st -2 2u-->great home team that takes care of the boards and guards the 3. Vegas has talent but still feeling a let down spot.
Maryland +2 1u--> too teams in rebuilding mode. ND coming east after west coast game. I like Turgeon boys to play well at home. Showed signs last game.
Kansas St +4.5 1u--> frank Martin. His teams come ready and I like the kstate Athletes vs a struggling va tech squad
Mississippi +2 1u--> penn st is horrible especially when facing better athletes.
Posted Saturday, December 03, 2011 02:07 PM
Record: 11-11$: +1.2
2-1 on Friday, hitting my first multi-unit play of the year w/ Vandy. I like a lot of games today but trying to be selective. Locked in two games and will probably play 2 or 3 more.
USC/Min Under 120 1u--> I actually thought about backing the Trojans +8 but this a west coast to east coast travel, early start. Plus, offensively, USC is terrible. They avg 8 assists a game which is just sad in college ball and shoot less then 39%. Minny obviously is missing big weapons on the interior and do not shoot it well from perimeter. I see a slug fest with each team struggling to get to mid 50's.
Ga Tech +2.5 1u--> Plugging my nose and taking the Jackets on the road. Tulane has played nobody and should not be favored against any ACC team. I think Tech can control the boards with their size and make enough shots to be in range last possession. Tech looked bad defensively against NW princeton offense so look for that to be much better as Gregory has them ready.
Will be playing Marquette for sure but wanting to get it at 8. Tough to fade Wisky at home but this Marquette squad is a perfect team to do so. They have veteran back court (Great assist/TO ratio), they create turnovers defensively and hold to low % (Under 38%) and they get to the FT line. Athletically, obviously big advantage to Marquette. Bo Ryan's team will play their style but I feel a little let down spot... [More]
Posted Friday, December 02, 2011 01:24 PM
Nothing to get excited about yet with this slow start. I have a few plays tonight.
Vandy +8.5 2u--> I grabbed this line last night thinking it would come down to at least 6 but not seeing much movement yet. I've watched Vandy a lot this year and clearly this is a team that will compete for the SEC title w/ Kentucky but they are missing a key piece with Ezele being injured. That said, they are facing a Louisville team who has their share of injuries. Louisville has played great D this year (33% opp FG) but I don't believe they've faced the quality of competition that Vandy has faced. Vandy has battled tested guards and they can shoot the 3 ball. I feel like Louisville will have some holes against stiffer competition in terms of their offense as i don't know where they go for buckets when they need one. It's always risky to fade Patino at home but I like a veteran group getting 8.5 points in a game where I strongly feel they are a live dog.
Georgia/Cincy Under 121.5 1u--> Two teams who really struggle to score is an obvious statement. Georgia shoots 38% from the floor and Nick Cronin's Bearcats are holding teams to 37.5% from the floor. Neither team fills it up from deep, although Ga will hoist a few, but with Cincy's 28% 3pt defense I don't see that being an issue. The Bearcats are atrocious from the foul line coming in at 58%. Couple these shooting stats with ... [More]