Posted Sunday, February 28, 2010 12:19 PM
I'll post my stats later. I'm on the move today so I thought I'd just quickly post my picks for today.
Locked in:Iona pk>10U- Iona has struggled a bit of late and they have an identical conf record as the Peacocks. This is a big game heading into conf tourney. Iona defense will be the difference as they create 15 to's a game the last 5 and St. Pete's have a negative to ratio. Defense always wins it seems in these types of game. Am concerned about the travel a bit, but Sunday game and the Gaels come out ready.
Fla. St-4>10U- Another opportunity to fade Clemson on the road where they haven't covered in their last 6. Fla St. is getting better and better at the right time. Their issues offensively this year have been in the backcourt but they are seeing better play of late. They are shooting 45% the past 5 and as always their conf leading defense has been solid. They got beat by DD @ Clemson this month but I think they bounce back today and get a win by 7.
UCONN-4>10U- UCONN has put itself back on the bubble with the return of coach Calhoun. Neither team has been great ATS of late in these similar situations. I like UCONN today to generate turnovers on defense and to dominate the boards. Louisville beat them earlier this month by making 10 3's. UCONN is only giving up 25% from 3 the last 5 games. UCONN to win by 6.
Posted Saturday, February 27, 2010 11:10 AM
Really struggled the past couple of Sat's. Going to try to keep a smaller card today.
Col-4>8U- The Buffs are a different team in the altitude. Iowa St with that short bench will fade down the stretch. Col is 4-0 ATS as a home fav between .5-6.0. Iowa St. is 3-12 ATS in Sat. games. The Buffs success will depend on their rebounding. They have to keep Gilstrap and Hamilton off the O-boards.
Clev St +4.5 (bought hook)>10U- Wright St. has not been good on the road this year. Clev St. coming off a DD loss to Detroit at home where they gave up DD 3's to a poor shooting team. I don't think that'll happen again. Clev St. matches up well with the Wright St. guards. I think their D will be inspired and I like them with the chalk.
Wake-7>10U- Wake coming off an extended rest. They should be focused on this game. Heels are 1-6 ATS on the road vs. teams above .600. Wake is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 has home favs. Wake will compete on the boards and dominate the pt. guard play. Defensively they force 13 to/gm and NC is terrible with to's. I like Wake to pull away in the 2nd half as NC's lack of depth will hurt.
Wake/NC U150>10U- In games with the total over 150, WF has been under both times at home this year. NC has not been scoring pts. of late, staying in the 60's. <... [More]
Posted Friday, February 26, 2010 12:13 PM
Valpo 1H +5>10U- This is a huge sr. night home game for Valpo against the Horizon leader Butler. Valp at home is 4-1 ATS against above .500 teams. Butler is a mediocre 7-9 ATS on the road this year. Butler is 1-5 ATS as a road fav between 7-12pts on the year. Valp is 7-1-1 ATS coming off a su loss. Valpo will have to make shots and they are hitting at a 49% clip the past 5 games. Defensively, they'll have to hold Butler to one shot. The last 5 Butler has started out slow avg one more FG then their opp at half time. Valpo with all the emotion should come out fired up and cover the 1H.
Posted Thursday, February 25, 2010 04:51 PM
I'm putting my Horizon league expertise to the test tonight and it so happens that I'm backing 3 road teams. I'm 7-4-1 since the regroup good for 64%.
UWGB -3>8U- I'm trying to not over think this one. UWGB has been getting better and better as the year rolls on, winning 4 of their last 5 in conf play. They are 4-1 ATS as road favs which is key here. Ill-Chic is 1-5 ATS their last 6 at home. It's not a secret that UIC has been bad this year although they've shot the ball better of late. I think there is more on the line in terms of conf tourney positioning for UWGB so they should be motivated. Stats wise I think the key will be TO's and UWGB has been forcing about 14 a game the past 5 while UIC has given it up 13/gm.
Wis Mil-2>10U- Another short road fav...YIKES!! I was just saying last night that these games are my demise. I still have to pull the trigger here. WM is 4-1 ATS their last 5 as road fav while Loyola is 1-6-1 ATS as a home underdog. This isn't exactly a stellar home court. I like Wis Mil to own the boards and TO margin which will be crucial. The stats back that up. Wisc Mil makes 7 3's a game and Loyola gives up 7 3's a game. In the end, I think Wis Mil is the better team, they've played better of late, and they are focused heading int... [More]
Posted Wednesday, February 24, 2010 04:11 PM
3-1 in my comeback bid. Nice card tonight.
Akron -5-5>8U- This is a situational play. Sr night for Akron, veterans who were on the league champ team last year. Buff coming off a OT game down in Fla. Akron tied for first in MAC so this is a must win. Trends favor Buff as they've been hot ATS so that makes this a smaller play. Stats wise the zips have been defending the 3 well, 28%, while Buff has shot 18/gm the past 5. Buff gives up 47% in conf play this year. Zips to get some easy ones which they need since they've struggled shooting.
Pitt-1>12U- This line opened with Pitt getting 1 and has moved with the understanding that gody is out. Look, I've been burnt by lines like this a ton this season, where good teams are laying a point or two to a mediocre home team. Dixon coached team with a lot to play for vs. a poor defensive team that struggles against good man to man defense makes me pull the trigger. ND is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Pitt is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16. Pitts d is always key, and they've held teams to 38% shooting the past 5. ND gives up 45% on the other side. Pitt defends the 3 well at 32% in conf play this year. Gib... [More]
Posted Tuesday, February 23, 2010 11:50 AM
1-0 on my road to redemption.
Gtown+4>8U- Small play on a feel that Gtown has an experienced group ready to get over the hump and get to the NCAA while Louisville is young and fading. Patino's boys are 1-5 ATS at home their last 6. GT has been a good bounce back team this year going 4-1 ATS after an ATS loss. I feel Louisville is soft in the middle defensively and Monroe will take advantage. Gtown is so patient and they execute very well. I expect Louisville to be in a hurry. GT needs to limit turnovers against pressure which they should do w/ experienced guards.
TT +6>10U- Tech has played tough at home this season going 8-3 ATS including 8-2 ATS the last 10. They are 4-0 ATS vs. teams w/ winning road records. Recently they played both Texas and A&M to last possession games and beat Ok St. on the home court. K. St def qualifies as a tough road team going 4-1-1 ATS as road favorite which is tough to do in the B12. But this is a let down spot as K. St. has clinched a tourney birth and they have a revenge game vs. Mizzou on deck. Stats wise TT defends the 3 well which has been a big bonus for K St the past few games. TT also shoots FT's extremely well and gets to the line a lot. 6 pts just seems like too much to give a quality home team in this conf. I'll take the chalk.
Posted Monday, February 22, 2010 11:14 AM
In the throws of a very rough losing cycle. These streaks and better yet, how I handle them will make and break this whole season. I'm in the red now, so it is critical that I don't panic and I stick with my money mgmt system. I tend to get over analytical when I get hit with a losing streak. I lay off games that are must plays b/c of one small stat trend or angle. I bet games more on stats and don't pay enough attention to situations and trends. My plan now is to back up a little and look at games big picture a bit more. Bottom line is, I will be in the green before conf tournaments start and then its winning time!!
UcONN+3>15U- Setting up to be a covers blood bath but like everyone else I look at the trends, stats and match-ups and they all favor UCONN. Both teams have bounced back well the past two games. The different is, WVU did it against lower tier teams while UCONN had to go to the best team in the leagues place and get a W. Two interesting trends here, WVU is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 as road favorites between 0.5-6.0. UCONN is 4-0 ATS at home vs. teams with above .600 winning %. From a stats perspective, for UCONN it's about the D. They are holding teams to 39% shooting the past 5. 29% from 3. The key stat area of the game, as often is the case in good match us is the t... [More]
Posted Saturday, February 20, 2010 11:03 AM
Early play, will post record, more plays and write ups here in a few.
Siena+9>9U- Siena is an NCAA tournament team in my mind. They have the 3 match-ups covered that you have to have against Butler, with Mack, Heyward and Howard. Butler doesn't overwhelm people at home even though they are a very good team. I see this coming down to the last few possessions.
Posted Thursday, February 18, 2010 03:42 PM
Ol Miss-3>9U- Ol Miss is 12-4 ATS after an ATS loss. They are 5-2-1 ATS their last 8 in SEC play. More importantly, Ol Miss is in every bubble conversation so this is a must have win at home. Vandy is an experienced group that has lots to play for as well. They have a few banged up key players but I'll assume Jenkins will play at least. Ol Miss has had a whole week to prepare for this game so I expect them to come out ready. They will need to hit a few 3's in this one and Vandy gives up 38% from 3 on the year. They should own an advantage on the glass as Vandy gives up close to 13 offensive boards the past 5. My biggest concern is the FT disparity. Vandy kills people at the line. Ol' Miss is avg. 11 makes a game the past 5 which isn't enough. They'll have to be aggressive attacking the basket. Tempo will be key and I always believe the home team will establish tempo if they are to cover. Ol Miss by 6.
Posted Wednesday, February 17, 2010 01:15 PM
Virg pick>8U- Can't fault me for consistency as I've rode UVA at home all year for a nice profit. Now with UVA coming off a road loss in which they gave up over 80pts, I suspect the defensive intensity will be jacked. Flor St. has not been good on the road with their only win in conf play vs a bad BC team. This line is short b/c of the Maryland whacking IMO. UVA has shot very poorly, under 40%, the past 5 games. I think that'll improve at home. FSU as relied on a rookie guard for scoring and on the road late in the season in ACC conf play I think he'll be contained. UVA must rebound well to cover which will be a challenge vs a very athletic front line. Trends are important here as Flor St is 4-9 ATS coming off an out right win. UVA is 5-2 after an ATS loss. Lastly, Tony Bennett vs. Hamilton...nuff said.
Wofford+2>12U- I really like the experienced Wofford team and This is a great spot catching a few pts.. They are 9-4-1 ATS on the road this season. Davidson on the other hand is 1-4 ATS their last 5 at home. More importantly, Davidson isn't good at putting together consecutive good games, coming off a nice road win at W. Ktcky, they are 4-8 ATS after a win. In terms of sta... [More]
Posted Tuesday, February 16, 2010 02:21 PM
SF-2>10U- SF is 6-2 ATS at home vs. above .500 teams. Cincy is 2-8 ATS following an straight up win. Not a lot of turn around time here as Cindy has to travel down south after being in Conn. over the weekend. Both teams are playing for Beast tournament position and a spot in the big dance. USF shot the ball poorly against Marquette this weekend and in general are only shooting 41.7% the last 5 from the floor. They been protecting the ball well though only turning it over 7 times/gm the last 5 and have been great on the boards. I think tonight they will defend Cincy and w/ Gilchrist back in the line up they have a lot more fire power outside of Jones. I like the Bulls to win by 6.
NE-9>11U- Northeastern is coming off a tough loss and I expect them to be focused and motivated as they need to win out to take the conference. They are 8-4 ATS coming off a straight up loss. They are 10-3-1 ATS on the road this year while UNCW is 1-8 ATS at home. UNCW is in a free fall and NE is a team where you have to have 100% focus and discipline to compete none the less pull an upset. I don't see it happening. NE holds teams to 36% shooting the past 5 games.
Miss St. +3- Hopin... [More]
Posted Monday, February 15, 2010 03:47 PM
Probably should be faded. Worst stretch of the season. BOL.
$: -21.86U .
Virg+9>10U- I've rode with Tony Bennett all year and I'm not going to stop now. 9 pts. seems like too much. The things UVA are successful at are things that give Maryland trouble. They don't turn it over, they get back on defense, and they force teams to shoot jumpers. They don't give up offensive boards. Mike Scott will be huge tonight and Maryland won't have an answer for Landesburg on defense. Majority of the board is on Maryland being that they've been lights out at home in the ACC. All good things come to an end.
A&M +7>10U- My gut tells me to hammer this one as I really feel like this could be Kansas's first loss in B12 play. A&M is disciplined and Turgeon's teams always play great team defense. A&M does not shoot the ball great and they'll have to be perfect on the boards and not turning it over. I think they can come close so I'll take the chalk.
Nova 1H -5.5>10U- My thought process here is either UCONN is going to come out and get blown out or they will be very competitive throughout and have a chance to win at the end. I think they will bring effort tonight but Nova can break a teams will with there ability to make shots. Their guards are 2nd to none... [More]
Posted Sunday, February 14, 2010 11:51 AM
Disaster weekend!! All profits zapped as I've went 4-11 and missing my largest unit play of the year on Kent St. It's now or never for turn around and it's time to stay very disciplined. I feel like I've been forcing games when there isn't much to see. And I've been increasing my units vs. staying disciplined within my range. Back to the grind.
Illinois +2>15U- The Illini have covered the last three in this series and I think this is a good spot to catch a few points at home. This Illinois team is playing its best basketball of the year let by a resurgence in D. McAmey. They have won their last 5 in the B10 and are 4-1 ATS during this stretch. They haven't been playing cup cakes either as they've beaten a good Wisc team on the road, Mich St at home and two add'l B10 road wins which are tough to get. During the 5 games they've shot better then 50% and held opp's to under 39%. They've been better at protecting the ball giving up only 10 To's the last 5 as well. As for the opponent, the Buckeyes have won 5 straight as well and seem to operating at full capacity with Even Turner back as their leader and dominating guard. The last 5 have been against the bottom of the league though and they've only been 2-3 ATS. There is no question the Buckeyes are a solid team and with veteran guards they usually compete well on the road.... [More]
Posted Saturday, February 13, 2010 11:16 AM
Blood bath Fri. Why I had 4 games on that card I have no idea. Back to work today.
Kent St-1>25U P.O.D- These short road favs are suicide of late and this line seems really fishy with how bad Buffalo has been in stretches. Kent St. is head and shoulders the most talented team in the MAC. Buffalo likes to get out and go. If Kent stays disciplined with shot selection and gets their defense set, I think this is blow out city. Buffalo has lost at home to Ball St. among others so they are vulnerable to take a L at home. I love Kent St. in this spot with this short line.
St. Louis +5>12U- Rick Majarus has owned this match-up vs. the Flyers. St. Louis will play the D and make Dayton make outside shots. Like the home team w/ the chalk.
Clev St +6>10U- I've been spot on w/ the Bulldogs this year and this is a match up that continues to give them fits. Clev St. fits the bill on all my Butler fade rules. I like them at home with the 6.
Indiana St -2>10U- UNC is oppo so I don't feel great about this since he knows ISU well. Home team vs. a struggling team with not a lot to play for.
UConn -7>10U- Calhoun is back and the Huskies will be inspired. They match up ... [More]
Posted Friday, February 12, 2010 01:44 PM
Pitt 1H +1.5>15U- WVU has been a slow starting team this season in conf play especially on the road. Pitt out scores opp. in the 1H by a healthy margin in home games. In terms of the match up, this is a rivalry game. Pitt got embarrassed last game so they will be motivated for revenge. WVU will play hard as well coming off a home loss in Beast play. Pitt got killed on the boards in Morgantown so that will be key. THey have to scrap to stay competitive on the boards and I think they'll win the hustle rebounds. Ashton Gibbs has to score tonight. I think he'll break loose off turnovers. Everybody has written off Pitt. Even in the last few that they've struggled they still hold teams under 38% shooting. Defense is what is consistent with them and I think they find that form tonight.
Posted Thursday, February 11, 2010 06:03 PM
Been away for a couple of days. Back at it tonight.
Miss/Miss St U147
Posted Monday, February 08, 2010 11:39 AM
Bad Saturday posting 5-8-1 and big loss. Back to work. I love these two match ups tonight. I know people tend to shy away from rivalry games but I like the action.
Nova+6>20U- Why such a large bet? I've been searching for a spot to hammer Nova all year and I fear that this will be the last chance to get them catching >5pts. Look, throw the trends, stats and angles out the window b/c with teams like Nova built on super talented veteran guards, they can wade into any venue and get a W. I know WVU has some bark at home and they've been coming together playing well of late. But this is the same team who took a SU loss to the Cuse this year, were getting drubbed by the Buckeyes at home and should of lost to Louisville. Bottom line is they are beatable. Nova is pissed off and hungry after the Gtown game. I know the travel is rough and I know the weather has been bad. But the refs in that gtown game allowed 50 FT attempts by the home team. 50!!! Add to that the Gtown was lights out from 3 and you get that result. I don't see that happening tonight. I think WVU will play well but can they play at Nova's tempo? If Nova limits the silly to's which have killed them in their ATS losses, I think they have a chance to lead from start to finish. The matchups to me l... [More]
Posted Saturday, February 06, 2010 10:44 AM
This will be a big card today more than likely. Starting with some early game picks!
Fla-3>10U- Interesting observation I made today and that is in the mth of Jan. if Macklin for Fla plays over 22 min this team is 6-1 ATS.In MSU's last 3 conf losses Varnado has avg less then 10pts. If Macklin can limit Varnado the Gators roll period. My leading angle is the home court advantage the Gators will have, as they hold teams to 39% shooting and hold a 6reb/gm adv on the home court.
WF+4>10U- This is a revenge game for UVA and they've played well of late especially at home but I think WF is just a team that will always give them fits b/c of the match ups. They really don't have anybody to check Ish Smith, and they have limited shot blockers at the rim. Aminu neutralizes Scott to an extent. McFarland and Woods at 7ft both create size issues. LD Williams is a lock down defender and he'll need to contain Landesburg. I think the hidden key is the frosh CJ Williams for Wake. If he can knock down a few outside shots and make UVA extend the D it'll be a long night for the Cavs. Crowd will be flat b/c of the weather as well.
Tex Tech-1>10U- TT has had a full week to prepare for the Cow... [More]
Posted Friday, February 05, 2010 04:32 PM
1 play tonight. 4-0 last night.
Rider -5 (bought hook)>10U- This is a momentum play. Rider had high expectations but then flopped after their early season upset of Miss St. They have solid veteran guards who bottom line just haven't put the ball in the hole. That's changed the past few games as Ryan Thompson has broken out with 25 vs. Manhattan and 31 vs. Fair in two big conf w's. Rider is playing for tournament position with post season hopes still alive. Loyola has 3 wins in conf and have reached the pt. as a bottom feeder in small league that there isn't a lot to play for. Their 3rd leading scorer, Winbush, is questionable tonight as well. On the road on a Friday night vs. a surging team, I think Loyola will lay down and get rolled.
Posted Thursday, February 04, 2010 04:23 PM
A few plays on this card tonight. Looking to extend my Horizon league streak as I've started 7-0.
Detroit +16>15U- This line is really absurd and is a perfect set up for Detroit backers. Yes, Butler is winning their conference games by an avg of 15ppg but this conference is extremely soft towards the bottom and they've been beating up on those teams. Detroit brings athletes and Butler struggles against teams with good athletes especially on the interior. I've said it 100 times this season that the key to stopping Butler is to have a long athletic wing to make Heyward into a driver and passer. A post up man to make Howard work on "D" and get in foul trouble as well as force him off the block. And lastly, a PG that can stay in front of Mack and defend him at the rim. Detroit has all these things. Plus Detroit shoots 47% in conf play at defends at a 38% clip. This is not a team that should be getting 16 points in conf. Det more then holds their own on the glass out rebounding their opp's by 5 in conf. If the bball stats aren't enough, Det is 7-3 ATS on the road, including 4-1 ATS vs. teams over .500 on the road. I may end up adding to this but trying to keep my discipline with 20U being max play.
Central Mich -1 (bought hook)>12U- Buff has a -... [More]
Posted Wednesday, February 03, 2010 06:17 PM
Another full card. Went 2-1-1 last night but hit p.o.d for a nice profit. Short write ups due to time.
CBB: 126-100-9 - 56%
GMason -1>12U- I've been looking to fade Georgia State and here is a good spot. Mason has been coming on in the Colonial. They have a short bench but I think defensively they'll get it done.
X-7.5>12U- Mass has some injury concerns as well as a young unit that'll struggle to contain X. X has the 3 qualities I look for to get road fav covers. Strong back court who can limit turnovers and create offense including hitting jumpers. Win the FT made total by a lot. And win the rebounding battle.
Pitt+10>10U- Rivalry game, Dixon is back and WVU is overrated. Pitt has a lot to play for and will be motivated.
N. Iowa-6>10U- Don't like that it ended up being so much chalk before I locked it but I think this is a great revenge spot for the best team in the conference.
Temple-13>8U- Dukes struggle from distance. You have to make shots to beat Temple's zone and they shoot poorly from everywhere. Temple will be strong at home in this route.
Ark +5>7U- It appears I'm almost alone on the site with this one. Lots of Georgia backers but not sure why. Ark is a factor in the SEC with Forston back. Georgia, outside of beating Tenn at home, really hasn't proven much other then they can stay close.&nbs... [More]
Posted Tuesday, February 02, 2010 12:09 PM
Tough card tonight but I ended up pulling the trigger on four games for now!! BOL
Central Florida+1>15U- P.O.D. Central Florida has looked bad in a couple of losses of late but they definitely went through the fire in terms of conf usa schedule. Tulsa twice, UTEP and Houston in their last 5. Their last game they played Tulsa to the wire. I think this will bode well and is a good set up for them to go on the road and get a conf road win vs. one of the worst teams in the league. A team that just lost to Rice by 11 at home??? E. Car has a horrible time with turnovers and C. Fla forces 13 a game in conf play. They will extend their half court 1-3-1 and cause this team fits. C. Fla has been hurt at the 3pt line of late, but E. Car only shoots 26% in conf play. Lastly E. Car is 1-5 ATS at home this year. I'll take the short road dog.
Mich St. +2>12U- Originally I thought I'd keep this to a small play but I'm going to roll the dice and go against a rule of mine which is to never bet against Bo Ryan at home. I think this set up and this MSU team deserves a chance to prove my rule wrong. Rebounding, rebounding, rebounding will be huge. Wiskie has struggled w/o Leuer on the boards and offensively. Hughes has to score for Wiskie but he traditionally has strugg... [More]
Posted Monday, February 01, 2010 05:47 PM
Can+10>8U- DD seems too much here even with Iona streaking in the W column. The conference stats don't lend a view that would lead me to believe this will be totally lopsided. Can holds teams to 39% in conf play. They get to the line and hit their FT's at 72%. They don't rebound extremely well but they are competitive. Iona will execute their offense and generate turnovers. I'm betting a little complacency sneaks in after 7 straight conf wins. I'll take the chalk.
Texas/Ok St U152>15U- I really like the under in this one tonight. If Texas has any heart, which is debatable, they will come out on the defensive end and play tough tonight. They are giving up 78pts a game in conf play which is terrible. Ok St. gives up 72. Both teams can score the ball and if Ok St. is hot from 3, I could be all wet w/ this under. In the end, both teams are coming off losses. I think there will be a renewed focus and energy on defense and rebounding. For Texas it's about limiting to's as well. In two games Ok St. has played where the total is over 150 they went under both times. I like that trend.