Posted Friday, March 19, 2010 11:20 AM
Just going to keep this thread running. Been away for a while. Vegas for conf tournaments which was a blast even though it was a losing trip.Friday Locked in:
X Pk>25U- I'll take the team with a legitimate big time scorer in Crawford. Minnesota will struggle to get looks and will have to rely on their defense to create turnovers. X has the horses on the interior to win boards and get to the foul line.
Purdue-4>25u- I see a lot of value in the Boilers today. People are fading them based on Hummel injury and late season struggles. I watched Siena @ Butler and they are not of the same caliber as Purdue. Not even close really.
Mizzou +1.5>25u- I love this match up of pressing teams. I think Mizzou is better at full court pressure and at the same time has better ball handlers to beat Clemson pressure. Leans:
Houston +9 (maybe ML, I feel an upset)
Utah St +3
Posted Tuesday, March 09, 2010 11:37 AM
Thank god I bought the hook yesterday and ended with two pushes vs. 2 L's. Stoked for the start of the Beast tourney.
Conf tourney: 7-1-2
Prov/SH U166.5>8u- Conf tourney at the Garden I expect some "colder" shooting and a little bit more focused defense even from Prov. Barring any OT, I think this creeps under and one of the teams stays in the 70's.
UCONN -3 (bought pt.)>20u- Big play for me as I love Calhoun in tournament formats to have his team ready to play and have a great game plan. Forum is all over this and rightly so in my mind. Walker and Dyson will play well in the Garden. StJ has given teams fits especially when teams have overlooked them but I expect the Huskies to be focused and come out with lots of energy. UCONN will win this game on the boards, and by creating transition baskets with their defense (which should be tight today). Calhoun lay the pts.
Mont/N. Col U132>10u- As several people have pointed out, the mid major conf tourney games are trending under. I think this will be no different especially with both teams playing in the half court.
Posted Monday, March 08, 2010 12:59 PM
Hit a hot streak at the right time and need to ride this out through conf tourney in prep for the big dance. These lines all seem tight but I'm going to play a couple.
Conf Tourn: 6-1
App St +5>10u- I was poised to hammer Wofford again as they were a p.o.d hit for me yesterday. But in watching their game yesterday, I feel there are some weaknesses that App St. can exploit. App St. has two guards who can score and create in the lane and from behind the arch. Wofford's guards will struggle to control that. Wofford's strength is definitely on the interior and App St. can equalize that with their 6'10 center and 6'8 forward who have played tough on the boards. This is also a feel that odds makers know Wofford with all that experience back and impressive non-conf resume will be heavily backed. I'll fade that.
Siena -7>8u- Siena playing conf championship at home with players who have been a part of the last two trips to the big dance. Experience will be huge here as I think Fairfield will come out overly amped and struggle in the early goings. I think Rossiter will defend and frustrate Johnson on the inside. Look for Siena to go inside and force Johnson to defend and pick up fouls. Needham is a good looking player but remember he is a frosh. It's tough to rely on a frosh in this spot for the majority... [More]
Posted Sunday, March 07, 2010 11:27 AM
Will post record later. Had a good Friday going 3-0. Conf tourney picks here locking in some teams I've loved all year to get to the dance.
N. Iowa-3>15U- Best team all year in this conference. Wichita St. can be solid at times but aren't dynamic enough to give this team a run.
VCU+2>10U- In the neutral site mid-major conf tourneys, teams with great athletes have a significant advantage. When the nerves step in and teams play tight, guys who can get to the boards, out in transition and to the rim win out. VCU has better athletes.
Wofford-3>20u p.o.d- Perfect spot for Wofford here with all their experience and shooters. I'm surprised this line is only 3. I think they cruise in this one.
WF-1.5>10u- I'm might be a sucker here as this line is short with the way WF has dominated Clemson the past few years. And at home on a Sunday game w/ their tourney hopes hanging in the balance, I think they step up and play well today. I like to fade Clemson when they play against good guards and Ish Smith is one of the best in the ACC.
Posted Friday, March 05, 2010 11:35 AM
What can I say, it's been a rough last half of the year and I have no feel at the moment. Conf tourney is here though and now is the time to make ends. I hit a nice parlay this week (eg. I don't post parlay plays) so capital wise I'm ok going into the tourney action. I'll be in Vegas next week for the big conf tournaments so need to start profiting.
Degenerate special Towson +2>10U- Just like to have action at noon on a Friday & I think this is a good spot for Towson as they've been much more competitive to end the year. UNCW is missing a key player and they've struggled in spots.
N. Iowa-10>12U- This is a fade of Drake as much as a play on N. Iowa. I don't think this will be close. N. Iowa will impose their will defensively and Drake is playing a back to back and won't have the energy to compete for 4q's. I think late in the 2nd half this becomes a route.
Bradley ML +150>8U- I like the Braves on the neutral court in this one. Creighton is 0 fer on neutral courts this year. This is more of a gut feel as I think this shapes up to be a good spot for an upset. Creighton won home and away during the season and in all has dominated ATS the last 5. I'm betting the trend breaks.
Posted Thursday, March 04, 2010 05:48 PM
Will post updated record and stats later.
Locked in:Miami (OH) -2>15U
- Sr. night for a team that plays great at home. Buffalo is completely hit or miss and their quality of play is dictated by their motivation and effort. I think Miami will beat them in all the subtle aspects of the game and I like Miami to force Buff into perimeter jumpers.E. Mich-4>10U
- Another MAC home team poised in a revenge game. Dobbins to have a big game and Central will struggle to score as always. Home team dictates tempo.L. Tech +1.5>15U
- I like Tech to win outright tonight. Fresno is coming off a couple bad road losses. I know its a dangerous let down game and the line stinks. I think Tech has something to play for while Fresno is trying to ride out the season.
Posted Wednesday, March 03, 2010 02:18 PM
Looking to surge into conf tournaments.
A&M-6>10u- Like the aggies at home getting the cowboys on a let down spot after the kansas upset. a&m will defend well and ok st. will have t hit a high % of 3's to win. The last time these teams played, Ok St. hit a crazy % of 3's, 12-18, and still only won by 11.
STL +3>10u- The Billikens have taken on the A10's best at home and faired well. Their only loss was by 2 to X. Temple seems to have locked up a tourney spot while this signature win for STL could be huge to getting them in. They will be motivated and I like them to cover the 3.
Kansas St+9>12u- Kansas St. are junk yard dogs on the road. They'll fight hard tonight. Kansas is coming of a loss for the first time in conf play and it'll be interesting to see how they respond. all in all, 9 pts. seems like too much when the teams are so close in terms of talent.
UCONN +2>10u- Road dog with lots to play for facing a ND team experiencing some consistent success for the first time. I actually think Gody playing would hurt ND at this pt. in terms of momentum. Calhoun is historically good at getting his teams ready for must win games. Match up wise I love UCONN. It'll take a huge effort to win on the road.
IU/PU U132>10u- Tailing Purdue & bense on this one. PU is ... [More]
Posted Tuesday, March 02, 2010 04:51 PM
Nova-3>15U- UC can't match up in the back court and this tempo will be much to fast.