First post of the NBA season. I like to watch the first week of the season and get a feel for the teams. These will be my first two posted picks. Have a good feel going 3-0 the last two nights. Hopefully it carries over. BOL to everyone!
Thunder -2 - I've been looking at this game. A couple things stand out here to me.
One, Chicago hasn't played anybody yet this year. Yes, they will come
with energy as it's a televised game in the middle of a home stand but
energy doesn't always equal wins and covers (captain obvious I know).
Secondly, you can cap OKC easiest by just looking at their trend for
turnovers and assists. When their assists are down, the ball is
sticking and while they have good 1 on 1 players, they tend to play
close games or lose. Subsequently, their turnovers go way up. Thibs
teams feast on turnovers even without D. Rose. Westbrook got killed by
the media and coaches after his last televised performance against the
spurs where he hogged the ball and took terrible shots. Last game he
came out and was moving the ball, had 8 assists. Tonight, look for a
good game from him and a fresh Durant. Plus, OKC has the bigs to
contend with Noah and Boozer which for the bulls they HAVE to generate
offense or else they can't stay in this game.
Vegas is vegas for a
reason and this short line will draw a lot of OKC action but I think
OKC is the play. Last thing I look at is the individual match ups that
will be there in the 1st and 4th quarters. Westbrook vs. Heinrich is a
big MM. Sefalosha and Durants size create other mismatches on the
perimeter and as I said, Perkins and Ibaka can stay with Boozer and
Blazers +2 - Great trend here with Clips on the 2nd game of a back to back. Played a televised game last night against Spurs and played well with tons of energy and got the win as an underdog. Underdog winners going on the road for 2nd night of back to back do not have a good record ATS, and consider that the Rose Garden is one of the toughest places to play in the league. 5th game in 7 nights for Clips as well. Blazers will have tons of energy and I expect them to limit turnovers and get good shots and hold on to make this $$.