Posted Tuesday, November 27, 2012 01:09 PM
Awful start. I might be fade work only but I really love one play tonight. I've taken off a few days to try and get a better feel. Early season is tough but I can't find it at all right now. It happens and I know if I stay the course I'll be around 50-60% by year end hoping to be on the high end. Just how it goes. Looking to start a winning streak of profitable days tonight and get it started with a big play..
Florida St -3.5 5u - This is a big play for me and I would probably have continued to watch had this line not posted. Tough, tough spot for Tubby's Gophers here and while I like this Minnesota team a lot, going into Tallahasse on a Tuesday night after a bunch of games and travel the last few weeks doesn't bode well. 3 games the past 5 days against top tier comp (Stanford, Memphis and Duke). Florida St. has stabilized well after the first game debacle vs. S. Alabama. They beat a good St. Joe team and a decent BYU team on a neutral floor. I'm looking for Florida St.'s defense to create their offense. In the half court, Sota is tough to score on 35% OPP FG. However, they've shown they are vulnerable to athletic teams who pressure and then run out of that pressure (see Duke result). Snaer is a good perimeter scoring threat and I look for him to get some open looks in transition. Florida St. can match them on the boards which has been key to Sot... [More]
Posted Wednesday, November 21, 2012 12:18 PM
: 4-8 $$: -4.3
Off to a bad start. A few bad beats (eg. Gtown yesterday) and some just flat bad calls. Gotta keep it 100 though, and post the good and bad. Looking for a little heat. BOL!
I'm looking for better #'s so nothing locked in yet.
Posted Tuesday, November 20, 2012 07:12 PM
Not my night last night. Full card tonight.
Georgetown +8.5 1.5u - Like the Hoya's length to bother Zeller and they appear to be executing better offensively than the Hoosiers at this pt in the season. Ill take the pts.
NDSU +1 1.5u - I backed Dukes last night and paid for it. They are playing uptempo but undisciplined. North Dakota won't rely as much on jump shots and I like their D a bit better.
Illinois -14 1u - This line has value based on the big upset last night. I like an experienced backcourt to dominate play and Illinois obviously shooting it well in Maui.
UCLA -12 1u - Georgia while catching IU flat last night are still not a good team at all. Bad shots, and lack of flat talent. I like UCLA to continue to gel with Shabazz. Anderson will bounce back as well. I faded them correctly last night, now I will lay the chalk.
Texas A&M -3 1u - ill take another shot at the aggies. This team is better than they showed last night.
North Texas +7 1u- Virg is a defensive team with Bennett a their coach but lacking fire power to lay 7 against an experienced squad with a top talent interior player in Mitchell.
Posted Monday, November 19, 2012 01:47 PM
First post of the season. I've been laying back a bit and trying to watch as much as I can to get a good feel. I've typically done well early season non-conference capping but we'll see.Kansas -12 1u
- Jayhawks showed some regression following the big match-up with Michigan St which was to be expected. I expect them to bounce back tonight and I think they will overwhelm Wash St.Georgetown +7
1u- I've not been impressed with UCLA. They still seem undisciplined to me and I think G'town will get great shots if they run their Princeton offense effectively. I do believe Otto Porter will play but even without I'll take the 7.Texas A&M +2 1u
- Finally, A&M has some perimeter players that can score. I like their experience on the inside as well and I think St. Louis is a fade until they get their best player back.Duques -7 1u
- This is more a fade of James Madison then anything else. They are not a good team and Duques will play hard nosed defense and get better shots.Marquette -4 1u
- Better athletes on the smaller court in Maui, and Butler has not figured out how they will score yet and their typically stout defense is a step behind early in the year. I hate to go against Brad Stevens b/c he's one of the best but Marquette similar to Xavier, will have too many athletes.
Posted Monday, December 05, 2011 07:09 PM
4-0 on Sunday. Nice bounce back from a wobbly Saturday. I'm starting to have a better feel now that there is more data and I've had a chance to watch more games. Good luck.
One play today and it's a big one.
St. Johns -1.5 2.5u--> Biggest play of the year thus far. Taking some profits from yesterday and rolling them into this play. Look, I know this line stinks and it's Dickie V night in Detroit and there are whispers that Holman is back, but the bottom line is Detroit just does not play well together, they appear poorly coached and they are coming off back to back home conference losses, one to one of the worst teams in the league in Youngstown St. Usually in scenarios like this, it's a no play but I can't pass up the value in taking a Big East school, albeit on the road, that has a far superior front line w/ God's Gift manning the paint and better coaching. St. Johns is young, a bit undisciplined and have not demonstrated any consistency with their shooting. Bottom line for them is, when they win they make shots (+50%) and when they lose they don't (<39%). Detroit gives up better than 46% shooting to their opponents. Detroit lacks a 3 point shooter and with Minnerath out and Holman yet to play, have zero post presence. There is always risk with every bet, and Detroit could come out inspired at home and catch St. Johns flat on the road against a mid-major b... [More]
Posted Sunday, December 04, 2011 02:34 PM
3-5 yesterday for a rough Saturday. Bounce back.
Wichita st -2 2u-->great home team that takes care of the boards and guards the 3. Vegas has talent but still feeling a let down spot.
Maryland +2 1u--> too teams in rebuilding mode. ND coming east after west coast game. I like Turgeon boys to play well at home. Showed signs last game.
Kansas St +4.5 1u--> frank Martin. His teams come ready and I like the kstate Athletes vs a struggling va tech squad
Mississippi +2 1u--> penn st is horrible especially when facing better athletes.
Posted Saturday, December 03, 2011 02:07 PM
Record: 11-11$: +1.2
2-1 on Friday, hitting my first multi-unit play of the year w/ Vandy. I like a lot of games today but trying to be selective. Locked in two games and will probably play 2 or 3 more.
USC/Min Under 120 1u--> I actually thought about backing the Trojans +8 but this a west coast to east coast travel, early start. Plus, offensively, USC is terrible. They avg 8 assists a game which is just sad in college ball and shoot less then 39%. Minny obviously is missing big weapons on the interior and do not shoot it well from perimeter. I see a slug fest with each team struggling to get to mid 50's.
Ga Tech +2.5 1u--> Plugging my nose and taking the Jackets on the road. Tulane has played nobody and should not be favored against any ACC team. I think Tech can control the boards with their size and make enough shots to be in range last possession. Tech looked bad defensively against NW princeton offense so look for that to be much better as Gregory has them ready.
Will be playing Marquette for sure but wanting to get it at 8. Tough to fade Wisky at home but this Marquette squad is a perfect team to do so. They have veteran back court (Great assist/TO ratio), they create turnovers defensively and hold to low % (Under 38%) and they get to the FT line. Athletically, obviously big advantage to Marquette. Bo Ryan's team will play their style but I feel a little let down spot... [More]
Posted Friday, December 02, 2011 01:24 PM
Nothing to get excited about yet with this slow start. I have a few plays tonight.
Vandy +8.5 2u--> I grabbed this line last night thinking it would come down to at least 6 but not seeing much movement yet. I've watched Vandy a lot this year and clearly this is a team that will compete for the SEC title w/ Kentucky but they are missing a key piece with Ezele being injured. That said, they are facing a Louisville team who has their share of injuries. Louisville has played great D this year (33% opp FG) but I don't believe they've faced the quality of competition that Vandy has faced. Vandy has battled tested guards and they can shoot the 3 ball. I feel like Louisville will have some holes against stiffer competition in terms of their offense as i don't know where they go for buckets when they need one. It's always risky to fade Patino at home but I like a veteran group getting 8.5 points in a game where I strongly feel they are a live dog.
Georgia/Cincy Under 121.5 1u--> Two teams who really struggle to score is an obvious statement. Georgia shoots 38% from the floor and Nick Cronin's Bearcats are holding teams to 37.5% from the floor. Neither team fills it up from deep, although Ga will hoist a few, but with Cincy's 28% 3pt defense I don't see that being an issue. The Bearcats are atrocious from the foul line coming in at 58%. Couple these shooting stats with ... [More]
Posted Wednesday, November 30, 2011 01:58 PM
Caught a chiller last time out, and yesterday wasn't much better. I expect a nice card tonight. Good luck.Pitt-6 1u-->
Pitt a little under valued here based off some struggles a few weeks ago. This is a local rivalry game on neutral floor. Dukes have guards to try to counter balance Gibbs and Woodall but I think Pitt will dominate the glass (Dukes are -12 on boards). I also think this team will start veering towards the mean of Jamie Dixon type defense. They are not there yet but I think they've had preparation time and plenty of motivation for tonight.Col St -3 1u-->
I think it's fair to say that col state has been a bit disappoint so far, especially ATS. That said, I like them in this rivalry home spot against the buffs. They'll need to control tempo, push the ball and get open looks. They are shooting 44% from 3 so far this year which is top 10 in the NCAA. If they get hot early, this could be a route. Buffs coming off a nice home win this week vs. Georgia. State will have the crowd and the energy and I like them by 5 or 6.
NC St. Pk (see lots on IU?? Wood may not play)
RI-5 (Brown is horrible)
Va Tech +2.5 (I hate betting against Gophers at home in the barn)
Posted Monday, November 28, 2011 07:32 PM
Like a few what I would consider square plays tonight in early season action. Good luck.
Georgia ML (+150) 1u--> Georgia is coming off some travel and has to go to Colorado for a Monday tilt. Georgia has been extremely inconsistent to date as they have young players playing significant roles. They will struggle against good defensive teams this year. But against teams that are average or below defensively (eg. Notre Dame) I think they can have success. Colorado has mediocre talent and they don't play D. I'll take the ML road dog.
Tennessee -1.5 1.5u--> Screams square, but in reality I think backing Tennessee is the right play. The #1 thing Cuonzo Martin is changing w/ the Vols is attitude and effort. He's preaching accountability. Going on the road, after a long trip, to play a mid-major is always a let down spot. But I believe he'll have them ready and the tempo will suit them just fine. They have athletes at all positions, I love the way the PG Golden is playing this year, and they will have a major advantage in the paint. Oakland is young, talented and good at home but they've already been drilled by two SEC teams this year granted those games were not at home. I still will take the Vols.
Weber St. +11 1u--> It's always tough to play St.Mary's on the road coming off a back to back. However, I like the resiliency of this team and ... [More]
Posted Saturday, November 26, 2011 10:37 AM
I like quite a few games today. Short write ups b/c of time. Good luck.
Davidson -6.5 1u--> Davidson is class of the Souther conference. UNC can be tough at home but I think Davidson will be too much with their experience on the front line.
St. Jo's-5 1u--> Love them at home in this spot vs. a bad Penn St. team.
Tulsa +7 1u--> This is just too many points for a decent Tulsa squad. Mizzou St. has put together a few nice wins this year but Tulsa is quality and I'll take the chalk.
TCU+7 1u--> Houston should not be giving anybody 7 points. TCU in revenge spot with the better team. Live dog.
Austin Peay -1.5 1u--> Midd Tenn got them early in the year but I like the Govenors at home. They played Detroit tough last game.
St. Peters +14--> The Peacocks getting 14 is like most teams getting 20. Their pace will be deliberate and the Hall's patience will be put to the test. I like the points.
Posted Wednesday, November 23, 2011 12:09 PM
First post of the season. Play 1 to 5 units with 5 being the big bet. I try to include write ups if I feel strongly about a certain angle. Good luck everyone!
Cham/Tenn Under 150.5 1u---> 3rd game in three days for both teams. I think the defense will be lacking. Tenn still plays with pace and has shooters who can knock down open looks. This is coming down and can be grabbed at 149 currently.
Austin Peay +5 1u---> I follow the Horizon league closely in particular Detroit. Lines makers mailed this in after looking at Peay's record. They are a solid defensive club and will compete for 40 minutes. Detroit is very under whelming defensively but have some good 1 on 1 scorers. They still don't share the ball well and lack consistency on the inside. I like the Governors to cover in a tight one.
Gtown +1 1u--> I've watched Memphis three times this year and what I come away with is a team that has a bunch of good athletes, no great bball players who don't know how to play together. Any opponent that runs a system well, eg. Michigan, will give them fits. Gtown runs the Princeton offense as well as anyone. Memphis is best in a free flow game. Gtown can control pace and the rebounding game in this one. Memphis is far from a finished product and Gtown with their experience in China is closer.
SDSU +7 1u--> These teams match ... [More]
Posted Tuesday, December 07, 2010 03:13 PM
No plays yesterday but went 1-1 on Sunday. I don't have a great feel right now.
Kansas -11 -1u: I think Vegas brought this line in a little too much. I don't think Memphis is much better then UCLA at this point in the season and that line was at 17-18. Kansas played flat in that one. I expect them to come out ready tonight and dominate in the paint. Memphis relies heavily on the 3 (38% of their shots are 3's) and Kansas defends the 3 at under 27%. I think Kansas will win the rebounding battle and keep Memphis off the foul line.
St. Bonnies +14 -1u: Just seems like too many points. Bonnies have been respectable and they have some scoring back. Key will be for them to minimize turnovers and prevent easy baskets.
N. Iowa +3 -1u: N. Iowa's defense prowess gives everyone trouble but I think it will really limit Iowa tonight as they don't have a lot of options and the options they do have are Frosh/Soph. N. Iowa shoots a lot of 3's so I'm betting they'll hit a few tonight.
Utah -11 -1u: Sharpstick and a few other respected MWC cappers on this one. I think Utah at home will win the FT advantage and I just don't think Pepperdine will be able to find enough scoring to stay within the total.
Posted Sunday, December 05, 2010 01:35 PM
44-41-3 $: -3.8u
One of those Saturdays in college hoops where nothing bounced right for me. All there is left to do is fight back.
Locked in:Air Force -3 -1u
: I like this teams ability to shoot the ball from 3 and from the FT line. Their achilles heal is on the boards and Evansville is not strong in this area. I think Evansville's road trip will have them less then sharp. I like AF to cover the 3.Richmond Pk- 1u:
When things are trending the wrong way, I feel better backing teams that I trust to get things turned around. Richmond is consistent and they will play hard, play great defense and they will execute their offense. Arizona St. is 0-6 ATS this year. I'll play the trend and back the better team on the road.
Posted Saturday, December 04, 2010 11:33 AM
Record: 43-35-3 $: +1.3u
Took the day off yesterday to focus on big card today. Lost my POY with Murray St as my angle didn't play out. Short write ups today as I"m limited on time.
Locked in:W. Virg -2.5 -1u: Even with WV struggles at the foul line, I still think this team is strong enough defensively and on the boards to cover this vs. an average team team at home.
VAlpo +5 -1u: Let down game for Loyola coming off tough close loss to Butler. I just like Valpo's ability to score the ball and I believe Loyola will struggle to score in league play. 5pts too much.
Utah St. +8.5 -1u: This Gtown team is ripe for a let down. Their defense was awful vs. Mizzou. Utah St. will play intense team defense and compete for every loose ball and rebound. Give me the team that absolutely has to have a big win.
Murray St. +3.5 -1.5u: I continue to have faith in the Racers in league play. Rivalry game and I think it's a one possession game and Murry St. finds ways to win in conference.
Zags +2 -1u: Illinois has to travel cross country and will meet a hungry Zags team looking for a big win.
Duke -14.5 -1.5u: This is a complete mismatch. Butler does not have the athletes to keep this competitive. The only way Butler stays close is if Duke is impatient offensively and jacks up bad early shots. I think they will be focused and execute.
Bonnies -4 -1u: I like this team at home and I do not think Buffalo is well... [More]
Posted Thursday, December 02, 2010 01:59 PM
Ended 3-3 last night but scratched out +.6u profit. Been grinding the green #'s higher and look to continue that tonight with 1 solid play that is my POY so far.
Murray St -4 -3u: Square play? Maybe, but I'm liking an angle that I've played in the past with success. E. Kentucky has not played a game in 8 days!!! Even before that their last 3 have been against extremely weak competition in Cincinnati Christian, Presbyterian & SIU Edwardsville even losing to the "Blue Hose" at home.
In the mean time, Murry has played Ol' Miss, Stanford, UNLV and Okla St. So to say that Murray St. has faced stiffer competition is the under statement of the year but even at that, the fact that E. Kentucky hasn't even played a real game in 8 days tells me that their is a huge rust factor and a huge jump in competition factor that may well put E. Kentucky out of this game early.
Even against this lower level of comp. E. Kentucky is only shooting 41% and they've been out-rebounded. Murray St. has really struggled to score against the longer, stronger and more athletic big time D1 programs. But tonight, they get back to league play, and their confidence should return in bunches.
This play has an emotional and psychological angle as I just don't see how E. Kentucky can step into a game after an 8 day break and be able to understand and compete with the level of in... [More]
Posted Thursday, December 02, 2010 11:55 AM
Does anybody know what's up with Brooks from Davidson? He hasn't played the last two games but I can't find any info on him.
Posted Wednesday, December 01, 2010 01:29 PM
Hit my only play last night which was my 2.5u play. Even though in the end it probably felt like a for Mizzou backers, I still feel I capped it correctly with Gtown. They were up 18 in the first half. I give Mizzou a ton of credit though, and they will remain one of my top 5 favorite teams to back in 2010. On to a nice card today with lots of action. Keep grinding.
NE +8 -1.5u: Large bet of the evening. My main angle here is that this is a huge look ahead spot for Providence. The Providence Journal's bball article today, even suggests that the Fryors should be gearing up for in-state rival RI on Saturday. NE is a team where 8 points, 4 possessions, is like 12 points, 6 possessions for a lot of teams. Their ability to control tempo and force teams out of their game is definitely their strength and that will be huge against a Prov team that is traditionally undisciplined although they've looked better this year. NE are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. PROV are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Wed. games which I usually wouldn't pay much attention to but Wed stats are important b/c its mid-week preparation coming off a Monday game. Key for NE is to keep Providence off the foul line and make them take contested jump shots. I'll take the 8 points in the look ahead spot.
Det -5 -1u: I continue to back my Horizon league favorites. T... [More]
Posted Tuesday, November 30, 2010 01:34 PM
2-1 last night. I shouldn't of messed with the total in the UVA game as the other two I picked spot on Looking at one big play tonight.
Gtown-1 -2.5u: This matches my biggest POY. I've watched Mizzou closely as they are one of my favorite teams to back. I love how they play 40 minutes of intense full court defense and they wear teams down often times getting their cover in the last 10 minutes.
However, offensively, they are short on weapons this year and I think that will hurt them vs. Gtown who is only giving up 39% shooting on the season. Mizzou has to score off turnovers created by their pressure but Gtown has experienced guards back with Wright and Freeman who will not only handle the pressure and minimize turnovers but they will score against the press on the back end.
Gtown is also shooting 44.4% from 3 this year. I like this spot as the line is extremely tight because both teams are undefeated. Mizzou hasn't played anyone though that can challenge them athletically with LaSalle being the only team that comes close and LaSalle lead up until the 10 minute mark. G'towns experience should win out. It's a neutral site game and Gtown is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. Mean while, Mizzou is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.... [More]
Posted Monday, November 29, 2010 11:15 AM
1-2 yesterday. Wiscy just imploded in the last 10 minutes which will happen when you have trouble scoring. FSU wasn't ready for a big game. Got a couple road teams today that I like.
UVA +13.5 -1u: I wish I would have grabbed this at 15. UVA has struggled this year and I've watched them closely in Maui and it appears coach Bennett is having issues with some of his guys buying into the system. The Washington game was culmination as they got blown out by 40. They bounced back nicely against Oklahoma, playing the way Bennett wants them to play which is to execute on both ends in terms of moving the ball, shot selection and then on defense, playing solid man to man and not giving up anything easy. I thought they regressed a little vs. Witch St. but that's game 3 of a 3 day stretch on a beautiful island so there is a lot of variability to those game. I like that UVA seems to be moving in the right direction and I look for that to carry over on the road. Aside from my feeling that UVA is playing better, the other important angle is that Minny will be playing without Al Nolan who is far and away the most important play on this team. He controls the ball 70% of the time at least, and everything runs through him. Defensively, he is there best on the ball defender and he is the key to Tubby's ball pressure oriented man to man. I think they will struggle wit... [More]
Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 03:08 PM
Record: 35-28-3 $$ +1.8u
4-2 yesterday but still bitter as i felt the two losses I had capped correctly I'm not satisfied with my small profit and need to lock in for a nice run.
Wisc -3 -1.5u: N.D has feasted off turnovers in this tournament and they've been timely enough with their shooting to get wins. Wisconsin had 3 turnovers the last game, which is just unreal. The fact that their execution is near flawless at this pt. in the season is a real testament to Bo Ryan. Championship game and I'll take the championship coach. I think their defense will frustrate ND. Wisc has not shot well so any improvement makes this an easy cover.
FSU -4 -1u: This rivalry is always tight. I was surprised to see the line open so high and its now settled in at 4. I like the home team in this one with their ability to rebound and play defense. I'm not sold on Florida and their ability to execute. They turn it over too much and take bad shots. In a game where each possession is valuable, I like Florida St.'s chances as they will get better shots, and control the glass. The home court advantage is big here too as Flor hasn't been great on the road in the past year or so.
UNLV -4 -1u: Last game of the tourney on the west coast & I'll take the deeper team. V'Tech has played a close game yesterday and their starts have played a lot of minutes, and they predominantly are a jump shooting te... [More]
Posted Saturday, November 27, 2010 02:38 PM
Record: 31-26-3$: +.2u
1-2 yesterday in a struggle.
Locked in:Duke -18.5 -1u:
Not much to say other then Oregon is not a strong team and Duke is the best team in the nation. This team is focused so I don't see the let down on the road angle playing as a factor. Cuse -6 -1u:
Cuse struggled against an ackward Michigan squad but I think they will return to form against a young and developing G'Tech squad on a neutral court.
Posted Friday, November 26, 2010 02:27 PM
1-1 yesterday winning the bigger 1.5u wager on Georgia and dropping the later game with Temple who was on the wrong side of the a 16-1 run inside of 10 minutes. 3 favorites on the card today.
Locked in:Rutgers -3 -1u: I've cashed with Rutgers this year and I want to stay on them. I think this is an improved team especially on the defensive end as they are holding teams to 38% shooting. St. Joe's is a young team who is going to be very inconsistent this year. 2nd game on neutral court in an away venue doesn't bode well for a young group and I expect them to be somewhat flat. I like Rutgers to cruise 69-60.
Notre Dame -3 -1u: Really impressed with the grit and determination this team showed against Georgia. They had several opportunities to close up shop and accept defeat but Hansborough, Nash, and Abromitis wouldn't let it happen. My angle though in this one is really to fade California. This team has kept winning this year despite ugly performances. Temple basically beat themselves yesterday with turnovers and terrible shooting. Cal has mediocre talent and it is young talent. I think ND will present issues for them with their ability to shoot. I like ND and will give up the pts.
UCLA -2.5 -1u: UCLA definitely is on the up swing, and they are finally buying into the Howland system in terms of their tenacity on defense and their willingness to... [More]
Posted Thursday, November 25, 2010 12:58 PM
3-3 on a big card yesterday, but hit my 2.5u play of the year on Nova. Like a couple games on turkey day today. Time to start building this roll.
Locked in:Georgia +6.5 -1.5u: ND has put up impressive #'s against some bad comp so far this year. They return some solid pieces, but lost PG and all time leading scorer to graduation. ND so far this year is holding teams under 33% shooting which prob makes betters feel like this team is finally arriving defensively. Don't expect that to continue against quality teams. Brey is just not a good coach anyway you cut it as his squads consistently under achieve and it's always due to them being soft on the interior and in general on defense. Georgia brings and edge with them into this one, as they've been playing without their SEC preseson POY in Thompkins. I think they have plenty in the chamber thought o compete for 40 minutes and keep this within the spread. They will have to win the rebounding battle which I think they can do with their athletes and they will have to make FT's. I don't see why this team can't win out right, so I'll take the points.
Temple -5- 1u: I like this spot for Temple as Cal shortened this line dramatically with their upset of New Mexico. That game was at home for Cal where their young guys were comfortable. I expect them to get uncomfortable in a hurry facing the Temple defense tha... [More]