42-34-3 $: +4.3u
Ended 3-3 last night but scratched out +.6u profit. Been grinding the green #'s higher and look to continue that tonight with 1 solid play that is my POY
Locked in:Murray St -4 -3u:
Square play? Maybe, but I'm liking an angle that I've played in the past with success. E. Kentucky has not played a game in 8 days!!! Even before that their last 3 have been against extremely weak competition in Cincinnati Christian, Presbyterian & SIU Edwardsville even losing to the "Blue Hose" at home.
In the mean time, Murry has played Ol' Miss, Stanford, UNLV and Okla St. So to say that Murray St. has faced stiffer competition is the under statement of the year but even at that, the fact that E. Kentucky hasn't even played a real game in 8 days tells me that their is a huge rust factor and a huge jump in competition factor that may well put E. Kentucky out of this game early.
Even against this lower level of comp. E. Kentucky is only shooting 41% and they've been out-rebounded. Murray St. has really struggled to score against the longer, stronger and more athletic big time D1 programs. But tonight, they get back to league play, and their confidence should return in bunches.
This play has an emotional and psychological angle as I just don't see how E. Kentucky can step into a game after an 8 day break and be able to understand and compete with the level of intensity and focus that will be necessary to keep this close. Murray St. has been beaten up, but they will use those experiences in league play. This series has been close, with Murray only winning at home by 2 about this same time last year with a lot of the same players. BUT, Murray did win by 10 at E. Ktcky last year too.
Maybe EKU comes out firing off the lay out and maybe they'll have a ton of pent up energy. But in my experience with college basketball, this is an extremely touch situation for a coach and players as it can take a whole half before you adjust to the speed and intensity of playing a defending league champ with all their players back, who has just gotten their asses handed to them by big stiff D1 competition in your first game back after a long lay-off.
I good example if this angle is IU last night vs. B.C. The Hoosiers were coming off a 5 day lay-off and had only played low level competition to date. In watching that game last night, it was obvious that it took the entire first half for IU to adjust to the speed of the game and the opposing athletes. Once they did, they played well in the 2H but the 14 pt. halftime deficit was too much to overcome and B.C ended up winning going away. I expect this same type of scenario tonight.
3 unit play is my biggest play to date. Early season, with Murray coming off back to back losses, I relish the opportunity to get this short line in league play.