oilerhoops1420's Blog

Monday Hoops- Big Play on Johnnies

By oilerhoops1420 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, December 05, 2011 07:09 PM   0 comments
Record: 18-16
$$: +3.3u

4-0 on Sunday.  Nice bounce back from a wobbly Saturday.  I'm starting to have a better feel now that there is more data and I've had a chance to watch more games.  Good luck.

One play today and it's a big one.

St. Johns -1.5 2.5u--> Biggest play of the year thus far.  Taking some profits from yesterday and rolling them into this play.  Look, I know this line stinks and it's Dickie V night in Detroit and there are whispers that Holman is back, but the bottom line is Detroit just does not play well together, they appear poorly coached and they are coming off back to back home conference losses, one to one of the worst teams in the league in Youngstown St.  Usually in scenarios like this, it's a no play but I can't pass up the value in taking a Big East school, albeit on the road, that has a far superior front line w/ God's Gift manning the paint and better coaching.  St. Johns is young, a bit undisciplined and have not demonstrated any consistency with their shooting.  Bottom line for them is, when they win they make shots (+50%) and when they lose they don't (<39%).  Detroit gives up better than 46% shooting to their opponents.  Detroit lacks a 3 point shooter and with Minnerath out and Holman yet to play, have zero post presence.  There is always risk with every bet, and Detroit could come out inspired at home and catch St. Johns flat on the road against a mid-major but I'm betting that St. Johns will be motivated following the ass whooping at Kentucky and with their being a bit of hype (Dickie V night), they come out and play their A ball which is more than good enough to cover 1.5 vs. this current version of Detroit bball.

I like the value here but know more than anything, that nothing is given or guaranteed and there is a reason this line is so short.  We shall see.  I'll be a square.
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User: oilerhoops1420
Joined: October 2009
Location: Indiana
Team: Cleveland Browns
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