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BCS National Championship

By omygodwin | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, January 07, 2010 12:19 PM

10 comments

Some stats to consider, just jotting it all down in here so you guys can see and so it's easier for me to look at. I'll have a few posts with stats and information before my pick.

The following stats for both teams are each opponents offensive rushing ypg(rank) and how many yards texas gave up(yards per attempt) to each team.

Texas opponents

Louisiana-Monroe -- 183.9(31) --- 101(2.9)

Wyoming -- 136.2(74) --- 87(2.6)

Texas Tech -- 84(115) --- -6(-0.3)

UTEP -- 151.1(58) --- 9(0.4)

Colorado -- 87.9(113) --- 42(1.2)

Oklahoma -- 134.6(77) --- -16(-0.7)

Missouri -- 127(85) --- 74(2.6)

Oklahoma State -- 187.8(22) --- 134(3.1)

Central Florida -- 130.5(82) --- 75(2)

Baylor -- 100.6(108) --- 6(0.2)

Kansas -- 112.1(101) --- 47(1.8)

Texas A&M -- 184.2(30) --- 190(4.8)

Nebraska -- 147.3(62) --- 67(1.9)

average 73rd ranked rush offense -- 73rd ranked averages 136.8 ypg

Alabama opponents

Virginia Tech -- 208.2(14) --- 64(2.1)

Florida International -- 104.3(107) --- 1(0)

North Texas -- 185.3(28) --- 61(2.3)

Arkansas -- 131.8(81) --- 63(2.4)

Kentucky -- 191.2(21) --- 133(3.5)

Mississippi -- 183.6(32) --- 57(2.4)

South Carolina -- 121.2(91) --- 64(2.4)

Tennessee -- 157.3(54) --- 76(2.2)

LSU -- 122.8(90) --- 95(3.3)

Mississippi State -- 227.6(9) --- 114(3.1)

Auburn -- 212(13) --- 151(4.7)

Florida -- 221.8(10) --- 88(6.3)

average 45 ranked rush offense -- 164.4

The reason for me looking at this stat is for people who claim that the only reason Texas is number 1 in defensive rush ypg is because they play in the pass happy BIG 12. Given, the average opponent average at 73rd is 28 spots behind Alabama's 45th, I still think their defense is tested and worthy of their rank. Teams have rushed the ball 407 total times against Texas, while only 367 against Alabama. This resulted in not only teams averaging less ypg, but also a less yard per attempt average on the year. I know that the teams rushing abilities aren't the same as Alabama's opponents, but I can not degrade Texas' defense just because they face the so-called "pass happy" teams. Now I will approach the same angle with Alabama, since they face the "run-oriented" SEC.

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omygodwin says:

01/07/10 12:49PM

Next stats are both teams opponents and their offensive pass ypg(rank).

Texas opponents

Louisiana-Monroe -- 208.4(72)

Wyoming -- 173.2(104)

Texas Tech -- 386.8(2)

UTEP -- 277.6(21)

Colorado -- 226.4(45)

Oklahoma -- 289.2(11)

Missouri -- 285.5(14)

Oklahoma State -- 179.5(99)

Central Florida -- 210.3(69)

Baylor -- 242.3(37)

Kansas -- 310.3(7)

Texas A&M -- 281.6(16)

Nebraska -- 175.5(101)

average 46th ranked, 249 ypg

Alabama opponents

Virginia Tech -- 183.9(95)

Florida International -- 216.7(60)

North Texas -- 223.4(51)

Arkansas -- 295.5(10)

Kentucky -- 140.3(114)

Mississippi -- 218.8(57)

South Carolina -- 226.2(47)

Tennessee -- 226.3(46)

LSU -- 181.8(97)

Mississippi State -- 144.3(113)

Auburn -- 219.8(56)

Florida -- 236.1(41)

average 65th, 209 ypg

Similar to the rushing stats, Alabama's passing defense is averaging facing off against a middle of the pack team at 65th nationally, while Texas' is a little higher at 46th. The difference between the average ypg faced is close to the difference of average rush yards per game.

Considering this, Texas is giving up 60 less yards per game than their opponent averages through the air, while Alabama gives up about 46 less yards per game. Similarly, Texas gives up around 70 less ypg on the ground per game, while Alabama gives up 90 less. All this proves to me, is that both teams defenses are legit and nobody can argue that the stats are skewed because of opponents play calling. I'll now look at the defenses both Texas and Alabama faced to try and find an angle there.

KktdocT says:

01/07/10 12:57PM

omygodwin says:

01/07/10 01:41PM

The next stat is both teams opponents defense yards per game(rank), first column being rushing and second column being passing.

Texas opponents

Louisiana-Monroe -- 110.1(20) 236.9(91)

Wyoming -- 172.5(93) 220.8(66)

Texas Tech -- 126.8(38) 225.6(73)

UTEP -- 200.8(106) 246.1(98)

Colorado -- 161.2(80) 201.8(34)

Oklahoma -- 92.9(8) 179.7(20)

Missouri -- 118.6(26) 251.5(104)

Oklahoma State -- 95.8(11) 236.8(89)

Central Florida -- 82.8(4) 267.8(113)

Baylor -- 178.8(98) 226.8(75)

Kansas -- 138.3(55) 245(96)

Texas A&M -- 171.6(90) 254.7(106)

Nebraska -- 93.1(9) 178.9(19)

Rushing average - 135 ypg, ranked 49

Passing average - 227 ypg, ranked 75

Alabama opponents

Virginia Tech -- 128.4(40) 167.1(11)

Florida International -- 232.8(116) 258.8(108)

North Texas -- 195.6(104) 216.8(55)

Arkansas -- 152.7(73) 248.5(99)

Kentucky -- 182.9(100) 176.8(18)

Mississippi -- 140.3(58) 174.4(16)

South Carolina -- 137.7(52) 163(7)

Tennessee -- 149.5(65) 169.2(12)

LSU -- 133.4(46) 194.2(29)

Mississippi State -- 146(62) 220(65)

Auburn -- 156.4(78) 218(58)

Florida -- 100.4(12) 151.9(2)

Rushing average - 154 ypg, ranked 67th

Passing average - 206 ypg, ranked 40th

Based on these results, Alabama has faced slightly better defenses than Texas. However, these results can be skewed pretty easily considering the quality of the opponent, the opponents strength of schedule, and so on. But, I did this so I can compare both teams total offenses to the average rank of their opponents. Texas averages almost 280 ypg through the air and 153 on the ground, 53 and 18 ypg more respectively, averaging about 70 more ypg total. Alabama averages 197.9 ypg through the air and 215.8 on the ground, 7 yards less passing and 60 more rushing than their opponents averages, resulting in a total of 53 more ypg total.

Looking at this, I'm a little more impressed with Texas. Only thing is, when they faced off against a stellar defense like Nebraska, their offense go shut down. On the other hand, when Alabama faced off against Florida's stout defense, they pretty much man-handled them. Ugh, having trouble getting a good feel for this game. Going to look at some more stats now, but it's looking like I'm going to have a degenerate wager here .

omygodwin says:

01/07/10 02:31PM

Looking at the big picture, it's becoming more evident who I am going to lay the wood with, even though I would normally lay off this game during a regular season week. I've pretty much listed most of the important stats in the previous posts, but a few trends/stats stand out to me. Mack Brown is 11-5 in Bowl appearances, while Nick Saban is 4-6. With Brown, Texas has won its last 5 bowl games, and is 8-3 in 11 total. Texas is also 7-0-1 all time facing Bama. Texas picked off 24 passes this year, leading the Football Subdivision, also adding 41 sacks. Rolando McClain, Alabama's Butkus Award winner, has had a stomach flu the last few days, more than likely making him a little less than 100% physically and mentally.

What gets me is how "Alabama is going to smash Texas". I know that a lot of people are also on Texas, but not a single one of them think that Texas will blowout Bama. On the other hand, many people that are taking the Tide here are claiming that Texas has no chance and that the game is going to be a 15+ point blowout. IMO, this opinion is narrow-minded. If you forget both teams last games, albeit that is hard to do for how impressive Alabama looked against a Florida team that demolished a Cincinnati team, this game looks pretty even to me. Alabama should have lost to Tennessee, and if it weren't for Terrence Cody's 6'7 frame, they would have. Also, Bama struggled with an Auburn team who lost 5/7 games of the regular season a few weeks ago by having to score a TD to take the lead with 1:24 left. All of this proves that, even though Alabama can be a great team when playing its best football as they did against Florida, they can also be a very vulnerable team. Texas is 11-5 ATS under Brown as underdogs.

Some say that Texas is "lucky" to be here because they hit a field goal as time expired after almost screwing themselves on the second to last play. IMO, it would have been unlucky for them not to be here, since they had to review the play in order to give them the second they deserved to hit that fg. After watching Nebraska's bowl game, it is evident that their defense is indeed one of the best in the country, and their offense isn't too shabby either. What people fail to mention about that game is Texas doubled them in total yardage and had 17 first downs to Nebraska's 5. I think that both teams show up tonight, and Texas and McCoy find a way to win their 6th bowl game in a row, tying McCoy with my boy Pat White to be the only 2 QB's in NCAAF history to win all 4 of their bowl games.

Texas +5 (-113)

omygodwin says:

01/07/10 02:40PM

Forgot to mention. I polled 14 of my friends via email who they would take in this game with the 4 point line saying I needed some help, when really I was looking for a decent fade. 12 of them said Alabama, while only 2 said Texas. I live in WV, so none of this is biased. I believe that any square that looks at this game and see's the Conference Championship results will think it's a gift that the line is so low. Not saying this is a square pick, because Alabama is good, but I think that Vegas will get pounded if Alabama pulls this one out.

I also think that this late line movement back to the original line is not sharps laying more money on Alabama after they moved the line down, but more because the majority of the public is starting to place their wagers on this game, and Vegas is realizing that they can up the line a little without swaying the sharp money either way.

Just an opinion, GL tonight guys!

BigKnocks says:

01/07/10 02:48PM

Nice write up, I agree with you and I think Texas covers if not wins outright.

ThorsHammer says:

01/07/10 03:02PM

omygodwin says:

01/07/10 03:10PM

DragonFly - I understand that Alabama's(12) SOS is better than Texas's(49). I also understand that the SEC is more run-oriented than the BIG 12, as the BIG 12 is also more pass-oriented. That being said, Texas's opponents have ran the ball more often against them than Alabama's have. I also did passing and rushing to prove that both defenses are legit, averaging giving up less ypg passing and rushing than their average opponent. I don't understand what stat is "garbage" that I posted. I did not try to prove that Alabama's defense was bad, just wanted to prove Texas's D is not overrated. As I said, Texas gives up 70 ypg less than their opponents average on the ground, so it's not like they are just playing to their competition.

WizrduvOdz says:

01/07/10 03:55PM

Good info

omygodwin says:

01/07/10 04:23PM

WIzrduvOdz -

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