onebrokebloke's Blog

Posted Saturday, September 15, 2012 12:27 PM

WEEK 2 - Arizona @ New England

Key points to winning:

Arizona:

-Absolutely have to establish line of scrimmage with Dockett and Campbell, so athletic linebackers can get to Brady. Peterson will have to lead the DB's in playing strong man coverage against all the Pats receivers. Forcing 3-and-outs will be key for field-position as the Cards will need everything they can get.

-Kolb obviously has to play well. Mismatches in the receiving game with Fitzgerald and Roberts against McCourty and Arrington - tight ends match-up well against run stopping linebackers and safeties for New England. Wisenhunt knows they will have to throw to win this one as the Patriots run defense could finish in the top 5 in the league this year, just like Seatlle's of last year who stuffed em clean last weak.

New England:

-Do whatever it takes to get after Kolb as he can flat out lose games for any team he plays on. Fitzgerald can't be a factor and tackling will be key against the backs and underneath routes the Cards run. Stopping the run with base defense could allow for more nickel and dime packages for the Pats.

-Offensively do what they did against Tennessee which is run the ball. Lynch was still able to manage over 80 yards last week and everyone knows it opens up the passing game. Block against what is sure to be a blizting defense because only getting to Brady stops the Patriot offense.

Conclusion:

The Patriots find ways to score on basical... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 07, 2012 09:55 AM

***BENGALS @ TEXANS*** - ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION

The Bengals and Texans both come into the playoffs with a 'backing in' feeling from most critics as the Texans have lost 3 straight and Cincinnati 2 of their last 3. It was only a month ago in week 14 that it took Houston an 80 yard drive to squeek out a 20-19 win in Cincinnati in a game that was at first dominated by the Bengals in the first half, and the Texans with their short passing game in the second half. Up to this point, T.J Yates had been playing well; losses to Indy, Carolina, and Tennessee have followed and the offense has been less than average. Cincinnati gave up 191 yards on the ground last week to Ray Rice - something has to give.

In the week 14 game, Arian Foster was held to a 2.7 yards/rush average and if it was'nt for a 40 yard run by Ben Tate, the run game game was completely shut down. On the flipside, the same went for Cedric Benson as another 40 yard run masked what was an anemic run game on the part of the Bengals.

The passing game was really much of the same as 80 of Yates' 300 passing yards came on the final drive and he was sacked 5 times. The Bengals passing game was'nt much better as Dalton threw for under 200 yards and Cincinnati mustered under 300 yards of offense as a whole. If it were'nt for 3 lost fumbles by the Texans and solid field position, Cincinnati may not have gotten out to the 16-3 first half lead in the first place.

PREDICTION: Although Houston's offense has been struggling lately, their defen... [More]

Posted Saturday, December 17, 2011 04:34 PM

$$DALLAS @ TAMPA BEST STRAIGHT BET$$

The number starts at 46 with no place for it to go but up. Sure enough, it now stands at 47 and I would'nt be surprised if most of the would-have-been OVER money get's shifted to DALLAS -7. The problem in this game, and lack of security in a Dallas bettors eye, is the fact it's on the road.

The Cowboys are 2-4 away from Dallas and have displayed inconsistent play all over. In their last 4 games they are 0-4 against the spread and show no signs of reversing the trend. They couldnt surpass the 16 point mark against Arizona, Philadelphia, and the lowely New England defense - all of which on the road. They have only scored 4 touchdowns on the ground all year.

On the flipside Tampa is just horrible. They're best weapon is Blount and Dallas has the 6th ranked run defense in the league. They have scored over 20 points once in their last 7 games, all of them losses. Freeman has'nt looked good lately and is banged up. Having said all of that they are playing on Saturday night in a game they may have nothing to play for except their contracts.

PREDICTION: Dallas' defense should be licking their chops in this game as Tampa may have the worst offense in the league right now. Although Dallas has'nt scored on the ground, they have been successful all year between the 20's. Tampa has given up 160 yards on the ground the last 3 games but under 200 through the air. Dallas shoud dominate time of possession ... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 06, 2011 12:19 PM

*WEEK 5* New Orleans @ Carolina Preview and Prediction

The Saints take their 2nd ranked offense into Carolina on Sunday looking to avenge a performance in Jacksonville that saw them walk away from the red-zone 3 times without a touchdown, and a 23-10 win. Carolina on the other hand, is surely happy to be home from Chicago to upgrade a 1-3 record after Matt Forte ran up over 200 yards on their torn up defense. Believe it or not, the Panthers actually think they have a shot at this one and look to notch what would be a huge divisional home win. Let's go to it and break down how this should likely play out.

A misleading assumption in this game is that New Orleans is going to go into Carolina and run the hell out of the ball. To the argument, why not? The Panthers have the 31st ranked rush defense in the league and let up a staggering 5.1 yards/run. On top of this, noticing the Panthers have the 6th ranked pass defense drives the point home further that this game could be lower scoring; this is indicated by the o/u line moving from 52.5 to 51. It is certainly fair to draw this conclusion because how else could you explain the 2nd and 3rd ranked offenses in the NFL to move the number lower. The only problem is that Carolina can't stop giving up the big play.

Although the Carolina defense ranks 14th overall in the league, they rank 31st behind the Patriots in yards/play at 6.5. As mentioned before, 5.1 of that is on the ground; through the air the number goes to 9.0 yards /play, 2nd worst aga... [More]

Posted Wednesday, October 05, 2011 12:02 PM

*WEEK 5* Bengals -vs- Jaguars Preview and Predict

Cincinnati brings it's top ranked defense into Jacksonville on Sunday after an impressive win at home against what was the top ranked offense in the NFL. Trying to muster yardage against this defense are the Jags who coincidentally enough, have the leagues 31st ranked offense. Although personnel match-ups usually are a main focus in figuring a winner and are surely pertinent in handicapping NFL games, the statistics speak louder in this one:

-As mentioned at the top, Cincinnati's defense is ranked #1 with a combination of the 7th ranked rush defense and 3rd ranked pass in the entire league. Giving up only 275 yards per contest, the Bengals are only giving up 3.1 yards yards/carry, have only allowed one pass play of over 20 yards, and are a stingy 32% on 3rd down (2nd in NFL).

-On the flipside of the ball, enter the Jacksonville offense which can be summed up as sketchy-at-best. Aside from the always productive Jones-Drew who is averaging 5.1yards on the ground, the Jags simply have nothing to offer in terms of talent, big-play capability, and anyone that creates mis-match problems. TheJags are averaging 9.8 points per game on offense and have scored only 3 touchdowns. Carrying the 32nd ranked pass offense at 137yards/game and 30 rush attempts per game, Jacksonville wants to find balance but just can't do it. Miller and Lewis offer strength at tight end but their top receiver is Mike Thomas-they're basically the Rams of the AFC... [More]

Posted Friday, September 09, 2011 04:09 PM

*WEEK 1* Rams -vs- Eagles: analysis and play

The Eagles take their 'dream team' into St. Louis sunday and try to do to Steve Spagnolo what they did all of last year in the NFL- move the ball in big chunks. The Rams on the other hand look to counter the eagles' attack with an attack of their own with an aggresive scheme that netted them 43 sacks in 2010-good enough for 7th in the NFL. With a weak offensive line that allowed 49 sacks last year (29th in the NFL) the Eagles may just have their hands full. Looking a little closer may unravel the real truth.

Josh McDaniels guides the Ram offense which boasted a 21st ranked passing game and 25th ranked run game in 2010 with a young, un-proven line that is penalty prone and a receiving corps that lacks the explosiveness needed against maybe the best set of DB's in the game. Although the Eagles' defensive line is still solid with Babbin, Cole, Jenkins, and Patterson; they are very weak at linebacker and will need support from their defensive backs with man coverage in order to blitz and get after Bradford. No problem in that regard as the Eagles bring top free agent Asomugha, Rodgers-Chromartie, and Assante Samuel to pick up the slack-ranking 3rd in the league in INT"S last year. The Rams focused their off-season on strengthening their offensive line (which still isnt strong), which is great, but did nothing to gain big play capability. The Eagles have no problems going into man coverage in this game and a stacked box will come of it. If your going to beat t... [More]

Posted Thursday, September 08, 2011 01:39 PM

Kickoff!! Packers vs Saints Prediction

The hype and all of the lights are'nt going to mean anything to these two teams tonight-they've both been here before and stage freight is not going to play into this one. What is going to play into this one is the fact that the game is in Green Bay where the Pack went 7-1 last year, and don't seem to have any weakness' as they steamroll into the season. A few keys to the game:

-The Packers were ranked 2nd in the NFL in Sacks, Interceptions, and points scored against last year and return 10 of 11 starters

-The Packers offensive line in only questionable at the left guard spot and is dominant everywhere to the right. I can't see that one question-mark making a difference in the Saints' pass-rushing ability especially with Will Smith out and Cameron showing little this preseason. Schemes are the only thing Gary Williams can use to get to Rodgers as the Saints' only improvement defensively is interior line.

-One bright spot for the Saints is their inside offensive line. Probably one of the best in football, if the center and two guards can get solid play from their young tackles and solid blocking from their backs in pass coverage, they have a chance to mix things up. They should be able to muster yardage on the ground, but whether or not they can keep Brees from getting killed is another thing. Even if they do step-up and protect him, the loss of Lance Moore and the cornerback tandem in Green Bay allows for man coverage and constan... [More]

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User: onebrokebloke
Joined: April 2009
Location: Maine
Team: New England Patriots
Occupation: Management

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