paintguy's Blog

how is wisc favored over iowa????

By paintguy | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, October 14, 2009 12:13 AM   27 comments
Someone please help explain how wisc is favored over iowa? Iowa imo has played a tougher schedule so far. Iowa 3-2 ats with wins @pennst vs airzona and mich.  Wisc is 2-4 ats  with looses to n illinois and fresno. Wisc has had 12 turnovers so far. Wisc does have the  advantage running the ball with some impressive numbers on the ground but Iowa has been stout in their run defense.The Hawkeyes themselves put up over 163 yards rushing against Penn st which imo has better rush defense than the badgers.Iowa has forced 21 turnovers in their past 5 games while only turning the ball over 10 times. Statistically Iowa has a power rating that would put the line somewhere in the area of Iowa -4 to -7 yet the line comes in at wisc -3 ?? Iowa 2-0 over wisc last 2 seasons. I know the badgers fans will be fired up this weekend in camp randell but is the home edge enough to warrant a -3  number____ i dont think so. I see value here with a better team listed as an underdog in a siuation where wisc just tried their best to get up for ohio st and fell pretty short while iowa comes off a strong (but close) win against mich with a chance to run the table and go undefeated. The points are an early christmas gift. Take the points take the moneyline take the Hawkeyes as they are in route to an undefeated season . The wrong team is favored and its time to cash in . Any insight and opinions are greatly appreciated
 
IOWA +3  (BIG)
houston -17
oklahoma +3.5
virginia -3.5
arkansas +24.5
va tech -3
baylor +3
notre dame +10
airforce -10
wake +7
Neb(line moved to -11) small play i should jumped on -6.5 
ucla +3.5
cincy-3 (nervous)
bama -17
pitt-3 (maybe)
Again please advise if im close or way off here guys. sometimes they seem great and im way off? appreciate any input
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webba says:
10/14/09 12:40AM
The team that UL-Monroe beat tonight only lost by 3 to Iowa in their back yard, now the Hawkeyes visit Camp Randall vs a hungry & certainly much tougher opponent in Wisky....I'm on the Badgers to blemish that unbeaten record of Iowa's, and I'm a fan of Hawkeye football.
doliver517 says:
10/14/09 01:01AM
Very rarely do they screw up lines. If it looks too good, it probably is
Coverdatspred says:
10/14/09 01:11AM
Hawkeyes coming off of a lack luster performance and Wisky coming off of a game where they straight dominated tOSU in every stat category except for the final score.  People will look at the box scores from the last games and decide that Wisky wins this game.

Not me.....the wrong team is favored, Iowa +3 for me
J_Money420 says:
10/14/09 01:18AM
sucker bet of the week
searcat says:
10/14/09 01:30AM
Arkansas State played better schedule than UL Monroe....
paintguy says:
10/14/09 09:42PM
 ur insight and thoughts. It may not be the best one on the board but i see value here thx n gl
allboutmoney says:
10/14/09 09:46PM
Wisky wins & covers...GL...
bandit1010 says:
10/14/09 09:50PM
IOWA are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

  • Under is 20-5-1 in IOWA last 26 road games.

  • IOWA are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on turf.
    • Johny_Utah says:
    10/14/09 09:50PM
    The Line says it all. 11th ranked team in the nation under dog to unranked team.   Always take an unranked favorite over a top 15 under dog.  Wisconsin wins.
    DWinner says:
    10/14/09 09:51PM
    Iowa +3 is too enticing.  I like it, but it looks funny.  GL.
    TRAIN69 says:
    10/14/09 09:53PM
    iowa should win.....but they wont

     

    Supaman33 says:
    10/14/09 09:57PM
    The thing many of you are forgetting is that this is a huge rivalry and Camp Randall is one of the tougher places to play, maybe not this past year, but generally Wisco does not lose at home. It will all come down to the run, whether Wisco is passing to run or running to pass. This year when they pass to run they have succeeded. The game against N. Texas and Fresno were both covers until late, late in the game....the badgers this year have had trouble finishing off teams. IMO the badgers win this game and at 2.5, they should cover. I am going to wait for everyone to take Iowa and see if I can get a pick em or maybe even get some points.
    paintguy says:
    10/14/09 10:00PM
    johnny utah why always take unranked favorite? what is the reasoning?

     

    do you guys think that this is a play on our heads by books or is line right? maybe game is a pk-em and camp randell deserves the -3. the more i think about it the more confussing it is. I think i go with the gut feeling and play the hawkeyes, if they loose i do not feel as if wiscy will dominate ----maybe push?????      

    Johnnynumbers says:
    10/14/09 10:20PM

    pay attention to the veterans here paint.  I posted earlier today why Wisconsin is my favorite play so far this week.  Solid angle you can look up in this spot in both CFB and CBB.  When the unranked team is at home and favored, it is b/c they are usually as good fundamentally with a HUGE motivational edge of trying to GET ranked by beating a ranked team.  Also in this case you have Iowa's best reciever now out for the year.

    I bet this angle blindly every time regardless of teams involved.

    You might remember Mia(FL) on a thursday a few weeks ago as a home fav of 4.5 against Ga tech....Mia was not ranked until after the game...

    GL 

    paintguy says:
    10/14/09 10:43PM
    johnynumbers  thank u for this insight. it makes a lot of sense. 

    blakmike says:
    10/14/09 10:49PM
    Interesting stuff. Thanks guys.
    Hawk_You says:
    10/14/09 10:52PM
    sweet im not banned anymore
    Johny_Utah says:
    10/14/09 10:54PM
    Also look at the beat down VT gave Miami when Miami was undefeated and ranked a lot higher. VT was the favorite
    Hawk_You says:
    10/14/09 10:58PM
    I live 30 miles away from Iowa city huge hawk fan. Chaney is not even close to being are best reciever. Id put Mcnutt sandeman stross and djk ahead of him. He is a track athlete, who has promise but is very raw at reciever. You are right though i think we lose this one based on the opening line -1 wisc. They are begging u take take Iowa.
    paintguy says:
    10/14/09 11:27PM
    cincy anyone?   pitt?

    boise not covering shoulda been seen  i had a couple small parleys with tulsa  then absorbed the hype and took boise. DAMMIT. i thought they would come out of their bye and lay it to tulsa  soooo wrong

    whats everyone think bout cincy thur?

    paintguy says:
    10/14/09 11:59PM
    pitt -3

    houston -17

    arkansas +24

    virg -3.5

    iowa+3

     

    Any thoughts?

    Barnstorm says:
    10/15/09 12:19AM
    Camp Randall might be tough, but Iowa looked pretty damn good in Happy Valley against Penn State.

    Good insight on that OSU game. I had Wisc. but didn't know about the easy 21 points OSU got.

    Line down to Wisc. -2.5. No play for me at that. Maybe Iowa +3, but I now respect that angle play. It's not a trivial, irrelevant trend. It has some fundamental reasoning behind it. Motivation for a home team to knock off a ranked team and gain respect.
    vinnyherbert says:
    10/15/09 12:21AM
    Wisconsin should be favored at home. These teams are very close, with Wisconsin having an edge running the ball and Iowa having an edge throwing against the Badgers pass defense. This game should go down to the last possession, but with the injury situation for Iowa's offense I couldn't play them in this game. Wisconsin edge in running the ball and defending the run should be enough to get them the win. As far as strength of schedule, Wisconsin has a slightly tougher schedule according to average power rankings.
    paintguy says:
    10/15/09 12:36AM
    very good point on the angle play everyone  what i thought would be a huge money maker is now most likley just a small play- still lean towards iowa- just less $

    johnyutah  

    johnnynumbers 

    appreciate all the advise  still lean iowa  motivation will be equal   pike should still conyinue to shine   kinda a coin flip

    best of luck whichever way everyone rolls

    Brisco79 says:
    10/15/09 01:02AM

    Really appreciate the insight here guys! 

    I know USF is ranked, but doesn't this situation above tell us something about the Thursday game too... Or am I just reaching here?
    paintguy says:
    10/15/09 01:16AM
    sooooo confusing???

     

    Mikie2Times says:
    10/15/09 01:51AM

    Could not agree more.
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