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Thoughts on LOUISVILLE ------ARKANSAS ST (line movement)

By paintguy | View all Posts
Posted Friday, October 30, 2009 12:42 AM   35 comments

Louisville opened -4.5 and has been steadily bet down -4 -3.5 -3 and now i see -2.5?? I took louisville at -3 (2u)and now i ask should I buy them again for more at -2.5 or is there something to Arkansas st??

Both teams are kinda putride this year but imo louisville has played a tougher schedule so far.

Louis ville has played well with tougher competition Kentucky, Utah,Pitt, So Miss,Uconn

Arkansas st has played Iowa close then----Nebraska, troy La Monroe, Fla international,

Louisville cleaarly has better power ranking

Louisville home offensivlely (21.7pts) (4.8 ypr) (6.2ypp) Def (22.7pts) (3.3ypr) (4.8ypp) against better teams than Ark st

Arkansas st on the road offensively(13.3pts) (2.3ypr) (4.2ypp) Def (26pts) (3.8ypr) (6.4ypp)

Is there something here i am missing? Imo louisville clearly has and edge against the hapless Arkansas St, they'll have the home fans in this one.

Louisville schedule only gets harder after this game as they still have W.Virgina, Cuse, S.florida, Rutgers while Arkansas St will face La Lafayette, Flo Atlantic, Midd Tenn St, and N. Texas

Is this not a value play Louisville (-2.5)??

Louisville -3 (2u)

Louisville -2.5(5u)

Any thoughts???   Why the love for Arkansas St

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Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 12:44AM
You know my thoughts...
paintguy says:
10/30/09 12:51AM

whodey

Don

Whould this qualify for more $ since went down to -2.5? If it is a coin toss them i am loving the peeps bringing line down.Imo Louisville wins by 10 or more

Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 12:53AM
You want to know my actual thoughts...

This may be absurd to some but I think its true.

Either one they released the line and realized it was too low to get action on Arkansas State and now that the line moves it makes people like us think somethings up.

Or 2 we are on the wrong side.  But I believe in my first theory.  People might think thats a dumb way to think, but personally I don't buy to much into line movement any how.  I don't think this is a coin toss personally.  
Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 12:55AM
I agree I think Louisville wins by 21 personally.  TCU last week, told everyone BYU was mismatched everywhere on the field, kinda think this is why I liked this game so much.  I think Louisville presents match up problems for Arkansas St. 
soonabooma says:
10/30/09 12:55AM

Louisville will handle it.

Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 01:06AM


I don't know man, Louisville has shown some signs of life this season.  They are going to be better coached, will have a better gameplan.  I think they destroy Arkansas State.  I think Troy is pretty much the only team in the Sunbelt that can compete, with other teams.  I'd even be willing to lay 3 to Troy in this same spot.
bigfella1 says:
10/30/09 01:07AM
 I LIKE 38 GAMES THIS WEEKEND AND I DID NOT PLAY THIS ONE !!!!
Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 01:10AM


38 games

Anyways also good news paintguy.  Louisville's starting QB is expected to start Saturday. 
paintguy says:
10/30/09 01:11AM

Loving it guys   absolutley love the line movement here also

Who -- i dont think thats stupid it really makes sense, Its like they bait you to take it??? Hmmmm  Louisville should be favored by at least 7 (fishy right?) wrong. Louisville matches up better on both sides and they r home. Think this one will be over early.

Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 01:14AM


Should be over early...the worst thing Louisville can do in this game is let this team hang around and think they can win.  They need to jump out get a lead and not let up. 
paintguy says:
10/30/09 01:17AM
who do u think i sjould ? or il rephrase would u lay more now that line dropped? i usually dont like to lay a ton on 1 game because ive done it in the past and actually went 4-1 and lost money? I have -3 for (2u) and -2.5 ( 5u)  im actually thinking bout laying down some more??
Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 01:25AM


Thats entirely up to you man.  If you feel strongly about the play then why not.  If you feel that you have enough tied up on the game already thats fine too.  Its just a matter of opinion.  I mean the line movement honestly has scared me a little too, just like you said little guy whispering in your ear, but I've learned to shut that ass hole up.  So again if you want yes do it, more power to ya, but if you don't you don't.  Do what you feel
paintguy says:
10/30/09 01:33AM
lets get that money!! gl all  see you all tomorrow night as we all cash with USF
faasavalu22 says:
10/30/09 04:34AM
Love your profile pic and love the pick.  Louisville actually my lock of the week.  5-3 on those so far.  Watched Ark St play at LA Monroe and they were AWFUL.  As far as USF...  WV is gonna roll.
Rollbama1237 says:
10/30/09 04:35AM
I think the LVille team has given up on Kragthorpe personally. No way should you ever give up 90% completion percentage to a backup QB (making his first start) playing for a team in the same conference as you. Also a big sandwich spot for LVille as they go to WVU next weekend. I doubt they game-planned for Arkansas St nearly as hard as they have for Cincy or WVU.

If they lose on Saturday, Kragthorpe is gone on Monday. We'll see how hard they play.
faasavalu22 says:
10/30/09 04:38AM
To think that a D1 coach will have his team gameplan for next week instead of this week is just absurd.  Not doubting that he's on the hotseat but it don't matter when playing Ark St.
flo38 says:
10/30/09 05:58AM
Be careful guys. There are a lot of injuries in Louisville.
CRACK3R says:
10/30/09 06:10AM

Arkansas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

Arkansas State is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

Arkansas State is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road

 

Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Louisville is the better team in a btter division and they will show it at home!

kittsd says:
10/30/09 06:45AM
This line looks like Ark St is playing at home - take Louisville and hope they don't turn the ball over and keep AS in the game early.  GL
Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 08:29AM



flo38 says:
10/30/09 08:37AM
Sorry for my bad english. Just watch this  :

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20091026/SPORTS02/910260334/Froman+expected+back+vs.+Arkansas+St.

Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 08:40AM
They aren't as banged up as that article makes it seem to be.  They are going to be starting Froman at QB who is there starting QB.  Most of the people in the secondary are just nicked up and should play.  The injuries shouldn't be a huge concern.
WojoFanatic says:
10/30/09 09:50AM
In the paper in Louisville today it is reported that 5'10'' redshirt freshman Will Stein COULD start. QBs Justin Burke and Adam Froman were both injured in the loss to Cincy last Saturday. There is a possibility that Louisville could start any of the three. I believe the line movement is due to this situation. I'm from Louisville and have season tickets. This team is very unpredictable and you never know what will happen. On a better note, it is a must win for Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe in hopes of keeping his job.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20091029/SPORTS02/910290384/1002/sports/Will+Stein+could+be+U+of+L+s+starting+QB
Lexky says:
10/30/09 10:04AM

Be careful with Louisville, unless you are near that town you have no idea how horrible the situation is in regards to that program and especially Koach Kragthorpe. 

UofL should be favored by a ton in this game, but with injuries and the coaching disaster this game could go any which way.  Most fans have the attitude "I wish we would just lose this game so Koach would be guaranteed to get fired", and that's NOT a good feeling around a program.

I'm not going near this game.

Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 10:08AM
Yeah I read that article this morning, they must have been impressed with what he did in mop up against UC last week, to even consider.  I've heard Froman is healthy.  I still think Louisville is going to smash them, I don't see them losing this game.  I've been wrong before.  Another thing Arkansas St really enjoys turning the ball over, so I think Louisville benifits from that as well.
topperchris says:
10/30/09 10:27AM
STAY AWAY....Better games out there
paintguy says:
10/30/09 11:36AM

they'll be ready and imo arkansas st is a bootom tier program agaisnt a much better louisville team injuries or not.

Louisville rolls by at least 10

Lexky says:
10/30/09 01:02PM
Be careful with Louisville, unless you are convinced Arky St is beyond worthless.  Louisville is something like 1-9 SU in their last 10 against the worst BCS conference just to show you they aren't what they used to be, this program is in total meltdown.
rubberneck says:
10/30/09 08:10PM

$$$ on ark st.-but not mine

Whodeysb09 says:
10/30/09 01:23PM


Yeah personally I thought they would compete for the sun belt as well this season.  They have had a incredibly tough schedule I agree.  @ Nebraska @ UL Monroe, game they should have won, too many penalties and turnovers @ Iowa.  Home loss to Troy.  They have had a tough schedule.  I think that though they are very undisciplined and turn the ball over a whole bunch.  They make a lot of stupid penalties, and I think Louisville will benefit from this.  I really don't think these teams are evenly matched either.  Louisville will be able to move the ball on Arky St in my opinion.  I think if tha Ville jumps out to an early lead they put Arkansas St away.  The thing that worries me about this game is if Arkansas St. hangs around and keeps the game close.  I'll take my chances though.  I think Louisville is hungry for a win, trust me nobody likes to lose.  They have played fairly well at some points this season.  I think they get it done Saturday.  Just glad the game is not at noon.  Louisville by 14.  31-17 something like that.
LBCWeasie says:
10/30/09 10:49PM
i will take Louiseville by 7-10 pts for 400 Alex  we know what side im on here, had this one circled as soon as the lines dropped on Monday...DONT ask why, DONT ask how, DONT try and figure out these two underachieving teams They are even up, we will side with the homer here, and its getting cold as hell in here so im gonna go put my shirt on and watch the SFLa WHOOPIN!!!!!
LBCWeasie says:
10/30/09 11:12PM

wow, hope no one has epilepsy!!!!

dsanch8 says:
10/30/09 01:22PM
Not touching the game. Louisville sucks. If Iowa can only win by 3 twice vs teams in crap conferences than what the hell can Louisville do? There are a lot of games on Saturday that look more tempting.
paintguy says:
10/30/09 11:01PM

weasie love the alex trabec avatar your sik!!

Louisville by 10 or more. Louisville will come out fired up and play for their fans. They have absolutely no reason to not go full throttle in this one. Yes some injuries but not enough to warrent such a small line here. A little nervous of the consensus but who really cares about consensus----heres a note for you all. The consensus was huge on W.Vir--------Sooooo many peeps on W.Vir tonight and line steadily went towards USF---

Need I say more??

Follow the Line !! Its almost as if vegas is begging for people to take arkansas st. Dont be fooled. If you need one winner play LOUISVILLE  

paintguy says:
10/30/09 10:39PM
Louisville to the bank. Let me just state that many many people were on west virginia tonight, saying thats easy pick and W. virginia will defenitly win. Its early to be calling out for a victory and i hope i dont become a cooler but USF is dominating and should continue to do so. The reason I bring this up is due to the fact that so many peeps on W.virginia and line moved towards USF.

Now ith this Louisville game we see a much better school playing at home with purpose. To all the doubters I say watch louisville cash.

If you need just one win play LOUISVILLE , and play with confidence

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User: paintguy
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