paranoisense's Blog

Posted Saturday, June 08, 2013 03:24 AM

Been a long time... need advice

Hey all...

First off, best of luck on the Belmont Stakes, and for those few who may remember me... "hello".

Been in and out of the pony game, but in looking at the horses to count out tomorrow (which is always my first step), I began to develop a keen interest in this Freedom Child. Any reason why I shouldn't take that Peter Pan seriously? Those are some serious marks. And in the mud, no less. Looks like a take no prisoners front runner, and not sure if the pace sets up in this one, but I feel like he may run up with Oxbow. But I am basing this primarily on what I am seeing in the DRF. Like I said, I have been a bit in and out of the game.

What am I missing, boys? who are the horses you are counting out?

Just looking for some feedback.


Good luck all.

Posted Saturday, July 14, 2012 03:56 AM

Weekend AHWG 7/14 & 7/15

AHWG is 11 - 16 - 0 on the season


Saturday 7/14

Indians @ Blue Jays - UNDER 10 (AHWG 8)

Pirates @ Brewers - UNDER 9 (AHWG 7.6)


Good Luck All!

Posted Monday, July 02, 2012 02:24 AM

AHWG July 4th Week Plays

OK... A bit better with the AHWG o/u plays this weekend, but I'm still not in the black. I'll continue to build the solution set.

A few plays for Monday:


Royals @ Blue Jays - OVER 9.5 (AHWG 14)

Cubs @ Braves - OVER 8.5 (AHWG 11.2)

Yankees @ Rays - OVER 7.5 (AHWG 13.2)

Marlins @ Brewers - OVER 8 (AHWG 11.2)

Padres @ Diamondbacks - UNDER 9 (AHWG 6.8)


Good LUck ALL!!!


Posted Saturday, June 30, 2012 01:34 AM

Flogging a Dead Horse - Weekend AHWG Plays

UNDER 10.5 (AHWG 8.4)

Posted Saturday, June 23, 2012 03:40 AM


UNDER 9 (+100) AHWG# = 7.6

UNDER 10.5 (+105) AHWG# = 8.4

OVER 8 (+100) AHWG# = 13.2

UNDER 10.5 (+100) AHWG# = 6

OVER 6.5 (+100) AHWG# = 10.8

Posted Sunday, October 09, 2011 03:11 AM

Talk me out of the Bills...

Hello All

Long time, no post. Anyway, I have been doing so so with NFL, but the line on the Philly/Buffalo looks a bit interesting to me. Ususally, when a line looks as curious as this one, it is because I am missing something.

So... what am I missing? Have the Eagles shown any eason to deserve the laying of a field goal? Is this the price of the promised team, or the actual team?

I have watched both play this season and have been surprised too, but are we still leaning too heavily on pre-season pre-contrived notions?

Not sure... I know that I liked Philly to go FAR before the season started, but I think that it's time for a reality check. Was I wrong? I'm NOT too proud to admit it...

So... thoughts are appreciated...

Posted Wednesday, July 07, 2010 12:57 AM

Germany to WIN the World Cup

Got it at +265 yesterday.

They just look so damn hungry. The Netherlands looked great today and, of course, Spain is possibly the most complete side left, but this German team just looks like the best to me.

Good LUck all!!!



Posted Saturday, July 03, 2010 03:14 AM

World Cup Soccer Bets ~ 07.03.2010

Crazy action today, huh?


Anyway... tomorrow I am going with...


Germany vs Argentina ~ Germany to advance (+135)

Germany's midfield may prove to be too much for Argentina's backline. Germany has been a dark horse with speed.



Grand Salami 07.03.2010 ~ OVER 4.5 Goals (-115)

The offensive feet on the pitch tomorrow just scream "GOAL"! With all talent considered, I can see at least 5 balls getting past the 4 netminders tomorrow.


Good LUck all!!!

Posted Friday, June 11, 2010 02:29 AM

World Cup 2010 Plays: The Beautiful Game

As the World Cup kicks off tomorrow, here are my plays for the Group Round. Playing all “advance” plays in the first round because, as we have seen in the past, some of the sides that make it out of the first round often do so in an unlikely order. 

I wish you all the best of luck on your plays and enjoy The Beautiful Game!


South Africa to Advance from Group A (+225)

I love the home field and pressure to succeed pushing Bafana Bafana through this round. After that…? Let’s see how Pienaar rises to the occasion.


Mexico to Advance from Group A (-110)

I realize that Santos carries a lot (maybe too much) burden here and that there are questions about Mexico’s speed, but I just love the poise of Blanco (the real captain in my opinion) to help El Tri rise to the occasion.



Greece to Advance from Group B (+150)

Argentina should win this somewhat lopsided group, but I like Greece and their defensive prowess to overcome their questionable attack. Patience is the virtue of this Greek squad and they should b... [More]

Posted Monday, March 01, 2010 12:14 AM

Open Letter to my Canadian Neighbors…

To My Neighbors to the North

I am an avid hockey fan and my team is The Ducks of Anaheim. That being said, I was excited for these Olympic Games as my team had more representatives going to the games than any other NHL team. Pretty cool. And the games definitely didn’t disappoint! What a great tournament! Granted, as a citizen of the United States and as someone who has always wanted more respect for U.S. Hockey, I was rooting for Team USA. That being said, I wanted to tip my hat to the Canadian Team and congratulate your country on your achievement of the Gold Medal! Well done!

I have been lucky enough to have visited Canada on three different occasions in my life ad it is a beautiful country with a lot to offer. Of all of those offerings, however, I have to admit that Hockey is my favorite! It is my hope that, due to the Silver accomplishment of the US team, more Americans recognize the greatest sport on the planet and start supporting Hockey even more.

I am a season ticket holder for my Ducks and I recall the 2007 playoffs when we were up against the Calgary Flames. My son and I were at the game and three rows from the ice and a group of about 10 – 12 spectators who were sitting in the row behind us had traveled from Canada to root for their Flames. Well, we beat Kiper in that one and they couldn’t have been cooler about it. ... [More]

Posted Saturday, February 06, 2010 02:22 AM

a humble pick from a hockey fan....

Essentially, I am on the Colts ML. But I had to make it a more valuable play than -180 or -200.

The way I went about it was that over the past week, I have parlayed 5 seperate NHL games on the ML to the Colts ML.

Obviously, the NHL plays were primarily favorites, but 4 have hit so far and I am on track for a nice + money wager on the Colts to WIN on Sunday. (If the Sharks can get it done against Nashville tomorrow, all 5 of my NHL plays will have hit on the front end of the parlay making it even more valuable)

Despite my usual reluctance to play parlays, this was my angle since I admit to knowing hockey much better than football. But I have been watching these two NFL teams all season (just like every other sports fan) and I just trust Manning to get it done.

I mean, the Saints are a great story and are a great offensive team, but the way the Colts offense can pick apart the opposition's defense in real time is just an edge that I can't ignore.

So, for what it's worth...

there's a hockey fans perspective on the Super Bowl.

Good Luck all, and enjoy the game!

Posted Thursday, October 29, 2009 12:07 AM

The MLS Playoffs!!!

Hello All

I know that the MLS is not a league that many play around here and since I watched a good 75% or more of the games this season, a few of you have asked me to share my bets. I will agree that it is not soccer at the level of World play, but it is getting better and these playoffs should be REALLY interesting.

The playoff schedule is below, and I will post all of my plays and analysis here in this thread... I encourage you all to try and watch some MLS games and support soccer in the United States. It is really coming along!

2009 MLS Cup Playoffs Schedule
All times Eastern; schedule subject to change

Conference Semifinals - Game #1

Eastern Conference
(1) Columbus Crew at (4) Real Salt Lake, Saturday, Oct. 31 - 6 p.m. ET (Regional TV, Direct Kick,
(2) Chicago Fire at (3) New England Revolution, Sunday, Nov 1 - 2 p.m. ET (FSC, FSE)

Western Conference
(1) Los Angeles Galaxy at (4) Chivas USA, Sunday, Nov. 1 - 5 p.m. ET (ESPN2, Deportes)
(2) Houston Dynamo at (3) Seattle Sounders FC, Thursday, Oct. 29 - 10 p.m. ET (ESPN2, Deportes)

Conference Semifinals - Game #2

Eastern Conference
(4) Real Salt Lake at (1) Columbus Crew, Thursday, Nov. 5 - 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2, Deportes)
(3) New England Revolution at (2) Chicago Fire, Saturday, Nov. 7 - 8:30 p.m. ET (FSC, FSE)

Western Conference
(3) Seattle Sounders FC at (2) Houston Dynamo, Sunday, Nov. 8 - 3 p.m. (TeleFutura, Regional TV)
(... [More]

Posted Wednesday, October 28, 2009 02:46 AM

The MLS Playoffs, for those who care....

...begin this week!

I will post plays tomorrow.

Good Luck to you all!!!

Posted Sunday, October 18, 2009 02:55 AM

MLS Play for a Sunday...

The title for the West is a heated one and two fine clubs match up here, each with 44 points and a playoff spot already collected, but both seeking field advantage.
The Galaxy has stepped up on defense and that has been the difference. While everyone has been watching Beckham and Donavan, the D has grown into a supportive boost in their own 3rd. They will need all the defense that they can muster against the clever play of The Dynamo, but I like L.A. to do it here.
Dynamo vs Galaxy ~ Los Angeles ML in Regulation only Draw = NO BET (+135)
Good LUck all!!!

Posted Saturday, October 17, 2009 01:01 AM

EPL Play for a Saturday....

Hello my fellow Futbol lovers....
Normally I play a lot of MLS and, with the playoffs soo on their way, I will have a lot of info for all who are interested. But tomoroow morning, as I prepare my lineups for my teenage boys' Local Tournament, I will be having a glance at the Sunderland vs Liverpool in the EPL. I can't really find a reason to go against Liverpool who has dominated Sunderland in recent matches especially as they come off of the frustration of having to face and lose to Chelsea (which is almost cruel punishment). Their drop to Fiorentia is a non-factor and they are, in my opinion, the superior club in this matchup.
Liverpool FC to WIN in regulation (+115)
Good LUck all!!!

Posted Thursday, October 15, 2009 11:21 AM

Campionship Series Cents: The Feeling of the Future

Well... here we go! We are down to four teams and I will preface my plays by divulging the fact that as a young sports fan raised in Southern California I have always dreamt of an Angels/Dodgers World Series. I know... I know... one should never bet with their hearts. But the truth of the matter is that I really believe that it is lined up to happen here. The Dodgers' starting pitching is a concern of course, but their bats have got the job done so far and they are looking focused enough to get it done against Philly. The Yankees are tough and hot as well, but I still think that Mike Scioscia is the best manager in the game and he will have his team poised for the challenge.   I wish you all the best of LUck!!!       "Los Angeles gives one the feeling of the future more strongly than any city I know of. A bad future, too, like something out of Fritz Lang's feeble imagination." ~ Henry Miller       ONE UNIT PLACED ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PLAYS   Phillies vs Dodgers ~ Los Angeles to WIN the Series (-125)   Angels vs Yankees ~ Anaheim to WIN the Series (+150) whom it concerns ...that's my two cents ...Good LUck!!!    ... [More]

Posted Saturday, October 10, 2009 10:13 PM

Late MLS Play...

Hey All...
As the MLS season winds down, I really like Chivas USA to get it done at home tonight and take a field advantage into the playoffs!
Best of LUck to you all on your plays this weekend!
Chivas in regulation (-135)

Posted Wednesday, October 07, 2009 02:22 PM

Divisional Series Cents: The Repetition of Affirmations

Alright... so here we are in the postseason and, as usual, that means strictly series bets for me. After careful consideration of the divisional series', I have landed on all underdogs. Seem crazy? Perhaps, but these are my plays for round one and if we see at least 2 upsets, I profit. I realize that the Twins have it all against them, but @ +390 and with momentum, I am taking the chance. The other three underdogs all seem to have a very good chance in my opinion. So it goes...   I wish you all the best of luck on all of your plays this post-season and enjoy the games!!!     "It's the repetition of affirmations that leads to belief. And once that belief becomes a deep conviction, things begin to happen." ~ Muhammad Ali      ONE UNIT PLACED ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PLAYS   Rockies vs Phillies ~ Colorado to WIN the Series (+160)   Cardinals vs Dodgers ~ Los Angeles to WIN the Series (+140)   Twins vs Yankees ~ Minnesota to WIN the Series (+390)   Red Sox vs Angels ~ Anaheim to WIN the Series (+110) whom it concerns ...that's my 2 cents ...Good LUck!  ... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 01, 2009 12:14 AM

Finally.... drop tha puck!

The NHL Season starts tomorrow and I just wanted to say a calm and collected...
F**U**C**K  Y**E**E**A**H!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sorry, but as a sports lover, my favorite sport is, as many of you know, NHL Hockey!
I wish you all the best of luck this season, and, as for my Ducks, I think that they have a shot.
I was at 3 of the preseason games and Giggy looks sharp, as does Lupol and Getzy... we'll see...
Nevertheless.... LET'S DROP THAT PUCK!!!!!!!!!
Good LUck, my friends!!!!

Posted Saturday, September 19, 2009 03:24 AM

MLS Saturday Cents: Unnoticed

Hi All   So with all of the sports action going on this weekend, I'm sure that the MLS is being overlooked (for the most part) tomorrow... and I can understand why.   After all... if anyone (other than I) sat through the Rapids/Earthquakes match this evening, you may have been muttering along with me, "Shit... this is why the MLS gets the crap that it does... what a dead fish match!"   Never fear my fellow MLS advocates... Saturday brings about four interesting matches on the pitch.   Oh, and I think that there is some cash to be made as well...   So let's take a look at the MLS for Saturday... shall we?   I will state my analysis, and then post the plays..   I hope that this helps!   Good LUck all!!!       "He has not lived badly whose birth and death have been unnoticed by the world." ~ Horace       Sounders vs Chivas USA This is a big match as there is only a point between the two. Those who have been following my posts know that I am a big believer in both teams. Chivas know how to play the touchline and create centering gold. However, I still stand by the notion that The Sounders may have the BEST offensive potential in the MLS. Yep, I said it... so it goes... I am leaning toward The Sounders to WIN   Houston vs Real Salt Lake  I should start with the fact that Beckerman from RSL is one of my favorite MLS/USA players in the game today. Re... [More]

Posted Sunday, August 23, 2009 11:59 AM

Thoughts on a future bet: To WIN English Premiership

Chelsea to WIN the English Premiership?
Just throwing ideas around...
I am a soccer player, lover and youth coach, but haven't wagered much on matches, but something looks right to me here.
I have been lurking around this forum, though I rarely post here, and I know that there are many smart soccer fans in this fine forum... (Coley, NJDevils {whom I resect from the NHL forum}, elsewhere, jcpsaints {interesting playing either side against the draw}, of course, lutz and many, many more...) 
If you don't like Chelsea, who do you like and why?
I certainly like them tomorrow against Fulham, but this is a tight league for sure...

Posted Thursday, July 30, 2009 03:08 AM

review: The American Nightmare

Posted Sunday, July 26, 2009 04:08 AM

Sunday's Gold Cup Cents: The Tastiest Hamburger

"Sacred cows make the tastiest hamburger."
~ Abbie Hoffman
Hi All
I like the U.S. to take care of Mexico in regulation in The Gold Cup Final.
I agree with the value as this U.S. team is playing a wall pass ping-pong game along the touchline with the best of them, and that should help to provide chances to sneak behind the Mexico backline... 
Mexico does match up well, but I just think that the focus and control go to the U.S.
Good LUck all!!

Posted Sunday, July 26, 2009 03:56 AM

Sunday's Base Cents: Word to the Wise

YTD 8 - 6 - 0 ( + 2 units )
"A word to the wise is infuriating."
~ Hunter S. Thompson
Cardinals @ Phillies ~ UNDER 10 (-105)
My #'s say closer to 8 runs.
Twins @ Angels ~ Anaheim ML (-133)
The Halos are simply getting it done and they are batting .329 against RHP's in their last 10. The Twins are heading a different direction, losing 6 of their last 7.
Marlins @ Dodgers ~ Los Angeles ML (-127)
Love The Blue Crew here in the revine where they are 34 - 16,have a batting average of .270 and send the big riddle to the mound in J. Schmidt. If J.S. is actually back to at least 75% of what he was (and I do understand that it is too early to know for sure yet), then this will be the best value on him the rest of the season. I will take a chance on him and the fact that the Dodgers have enough firepower to insure that, should he blow it, they will still have a hope. whom it concerns ...that's my 2 cents ...Good LUck!!!

Posted Saturday, July 25, 2009 05:37 PM

Saturday's Base Cents: Visionaries and Liars

YTD 7 - 4 - 0 ( + 3 units )
"The visionary lies to himself, the liar only to others."
~ Friedrich Nietzsche
Braves @ Brewers ~ Atlanta ML (+126)
Braves are hitting .340 against righties in their last 10 and I think that they will jump on Gallardo early.
Mets @ Astros ~ Houston ML (-125)
The Astros have won 7 of their last 10 and the Mets just dropped 2 to The Nationals. whom it concerns ...that's my 2 cents ...Good LUck!!!

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User: paranoisense
Joined: February 2003
Location: California
Occupation: Other

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