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Sell the house (Cards/Dodgers)

By petergriffin1 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, October 05, 2009 08:33 AM   32 comments
The series line is a pick??? LA is a garbage team that got into the playoffs based on a fantastic start. St. Louis has a massive pitching edge and I'd say a massive hitting edge too. St. Louis has Pujols and Holliday while LA has absolutely nothing. Manny is total shit now.

Carpenter/Wolf game one. Who are you picking?

Kershaw/Wainwright game two. WW has lost ONE start on the road all season. (14-1 team record)

LA will be lucky to get a split here and if they play both games in St. Louis they will be lucky to get a split there too. If it somehow gets to game 5 you know Carpenter will be on the mound and St. Louis still a solid favorite. If you're scared at that point you could hedge as St. Louis will certainly be favored but I highly doubt this gets to a fifth game.
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Kirkpicard says:
10/05/09 11:11AM
Both teams playing like crap down the stretch !

Vegas has this right. This series is a coin flip !

I would lean St Lou in 4, but it's a no play for me because LAD would have game 5 at home if they can get it their !

Look for some real low scoring games in this series. I wonder how low the vegas puts the unders in these games it should be interesting ! I think the 1st 2 games will be 7 !

 

Good Luck in whatever you take !!

Osirus13 says:
10/05/09 11:19AM
you rarely make the playoffs in baseball being a garbage team as you say. Too many games. Now in the nfl its another thing. Dodgers arent garbage
Diamondjake says:
10/05/09 11:26AM
Dodgers going down.
Shiek1995 says:
10/05/09 12:56PM
ALL I can find is STL -140. Where did u get a pick?
165yds says:
10/05/09 01:13PM
This is the trap so many of you young kids fall into, thinking this is an easy game or series.  The line is correct at a pick, for value reasons the Dodgers should be the play as far as going to the WS.  I talked about respecting the line and that is what you aren't doing by starting this thread.  The playoffs are such a crap shoot and majority of the time in baseball the best team does not win and first round the odds of the better team winning are even smaller.   
Stinky1 says:
10/05/09 01:31PM
Oh well, should be great baseball and thrilling moments so we all win in the end.

I bet the playoffs and WS small so I can enjoy the games more. Mariners are out so I have no care who wins in the end. Wouldn't mind seeing the Yankees NOT win but whatever.

I think this one goes five games and the Dodgers pull it out.

Shot in the dark though.
gmitran says:
10/05/09 01:46PM
Stl at pick-em is worth it but -130 now.
DOVJAK says:
10/05/09 01:47PM
CARDS IN 4
Pompilio says:
10/05/09 02:54PM
                                                     $erie$  now

 

                                   -135 @ pinnacle

 

                                                                                               . . . go bird$ !!!

tallguyindc says:
10/05/09 03:20PM
The Dodgers won 5 more games than the Cards.

The Dodgers scored 50 more runs than the Cards.

The Dodgers allowed 29 fewer runs than the Cards.

Yes, a lot of this happened earlier in the season and the Cardinals outperformed the Dodgers later in the season, but the bottom line is that the Dodgers outperformed the Cardinals by far over the course of the entire season. Its a fairly amateurish mistake to overweight very recent history, as if somehow the first half of the year doesn't matter. Perhaps, they got a little lucky in the first half of the year. But its just as likely, STL got a little lucky in the later part of the year.

This isn't "sell your house" LA or anything like that. No game or series ever is. But at +133 (Matchbook's current equilibrium), LA needs to have better than a 43% chance at winning. With the fact that their Pythagorean W-L is a full 8 games better than STL and 3 of the 5 games are in LA, I'm leaning to the Dodgers.

skyclassic says:
10/05/09 03:45PM
this one is dead heat...
unclebruce says:
10/05/09 03:58PM
THE WAY THE LINE HAS MOVED TELLS ME TAKE THE DODGERS, EVEN THOUGH I WOULD AGREE WITH THE CARDS......... FADE THE PUBLIC.. TAKE THE DODGERS..
Skeet_Skeet says:
10/05/09 05:01PM
Dodgers in game 5 with home field advantages.
wonwiththehook says:
10/05/09 05:31PM
I hope the Dodgers win bro !
Skeet_Skeet says:
10/05/09 05:42PM
louman says:
10/05/09 06:26PM
beatdown
Kazual12 says:
10/05/09 07:02PM
I like the Cardinals but it is never that easy.
take-a-chance says:
10/05/09 07:20PM
Tiger Paws, thanks for your insight.  Would be easier to read without the personal attacks and name calling.  Why make yourself look like an a hole?
vpnyc1 says:
10/05/09 07:38PM
Good work PG1. I am on the Home team getting money and when they split, I make a profit!!
K4ngur13 says:
10/05/09 10:47PM
Crashdavis565 says:
10/06/09 12:08AM
The Cards are tested and proven. Kershaw  is a kid who will be on a big stage. 

Paws you are obviously a Dodger fan but these Dodgers are not the same as the Dodger who started the season.  Starting pitching will win the series and the edge is to the Cardinals who can put three quality starters out there.  The Dodgers are classic underachievers who will disappoint agan. Manny deroided sucks and leaves a big hole in the lineup.

The Rockies exploited his complete lack of bat speed the other day with 3 k's just grooving him inside. The lack of roids have stolen his bat speed.He cannot turn on the inside pitch and the Cards will eat him alive. 

I am sorry Cards win and may sweep.

 

psantana357 says:
10/06/09 12:13AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Crashdavis565]
The Cards are tested and proven. Kershaw  is a kid who will be on a big stage. 

Paws you are obviously a Dodger fan but these Dodgers are not the same as the Dodger who started the season.  Starting pitching will win the series and the edge is to the Cardinals who can put three quality starters out there.  The Dodgers are classic underachievers who will disappoint agan. Manny deroided sucks and leaves a big hole in the lineup.

The Rockies exploited his complete lack of bat speed the other day with 3 k's just grooving him inside. The lack of roids have stolen his bat speed.He cannot turn on the inside pitch and the Cards will eat him alive. 

I am sorry Cards win and may sweep.

 
not so fast!!


tuck321 says:
10/06/09 04:23AM
Dodgers spend 100 million
Cardinals spend 87 million 703 thousand
Advantage Dodgers
marnypoly says:
10/06/09 04:53AM
This will be Ethier and Kemp's coming out party.
igotthegoods says:
10/06/09 08:01AM



TwistedMath says:
10/06/09 11:11AM
Most people are looking at the Dodgers from the wrong angles.  This team does not win with their offense, nor do they win with their starting pitching.  Both are average, but this is the same team that we've seen all year long. 

The biggest strength of the Dodgers is their bullpen.  Most of their games are won in the late innings.  If it's a close game after the 6th the bullpen usually shuts down the opponent and the Dodgers have to beat the other teams pen with their offense.  That's why we've seen so many Dodger walk off wins or games that were won in the 7th or 8th inning.  A lot of people get frustrated that the Dodgers never cover on the run line.  The way they win games is why they never cover that spread.

You have to also take into consideration that the NL west ball parks with the exception of Colorado favor pitchers.  Putting the Dodger bullpen in those ball parks only magnifies how good they really are. 

With that being said I think LA has a great shot to go to the world series.  St Louis is a pitchers park just like Los Angeles is.  If they split their games with Carpenter and Wainwright they can easily win the first round series.  Follow that up with playing Colorado or Philadelphia with the home field edge in round 2 and I think they easily make the world series as Philly and Colorado just don't have the bullpen right now.

I think the Dodgers beat St Louis in 5 games then take out Philly or Colorado in 6.
petergriffin1 says:
10/06/09 12:07PM

I think this is a really good post. Finally a Dodgers backer that will admit their offense and starting pitching are average. Any game the Dodgers win will probably be a hard fought 3-2 or 4-3 type game but if they lose they can easily lose by 5+ runs. Of course the Dodgers do have the capability to win this series and the whole thing, but I just don't like their style. It can work in the regular season when you get to play a bunch of scrub teams but these playoff teams with powerful offenses are going to be tough to hold down. I'm still sticking with St. Louis in 3 or 4. LA may get a split in their opening home games, but I don't see them winning a game in St. Louis. They haven't had much success down there. May the best team win. Cards/Rockies NLCS Rockies/NYY World Series. NYY wins
Skeet_Skeet says:
10/11/09 05:48PM
Lol tell'em Tiger.  Dodgerrrrrs baby BAM BAM BAM sweep!  We don't have the best pitching or hitting but they are good enough and we find ways to win and in the end that is what it comes down to.  Not to mention we have a great skipper leading the clubhouse. 
petergriffin1 says:
10/11/09 10:22PM

I paid a lot for the Cards loss and so did many others. I don't care what the charts say, St. Louis was the better team IMO but the better team doesn't always win. If games were played on stat sheets I'm pretty sure the Yankees win every game but it doesn't work like that. If Holliday doesn't drop that ball we have a different series and you know it. Sometimes you lose and that's why this is called gambling, but I have no regrets for this bet. If they started a new series next week I would do be on St. Louis again. Congrats on your Dodgers win though TigerPaws.
165yds says:
10/11/09 11:16PM
This was a silly thread to begin with.  It's baseball and that is why I always say respect the line and you and most others who bet this series lost, opens at a pick and closes at -140, the books bent you guys over and told you to take it quietly.  I hope lesson was learned but still you want to lay -140 in a baseball series and would bet this series again where anything can happen , I guess you want to get bent over a few more times with your hand over your mouth.  Never lay juice in baseball especially at that number.
abel73 says:
10/13/09 08:49AM
The BLUE CREW swept the mighty Cards...Expect theeee unexpected. GO DODGERS!
tallguyindc says:
10/13/09 04:50AM
<i> I don't care what the charts say, St. Louis was the better team IMO but the better team doesn't always win. </i>

Who was the better team is debatable. Personally, I feel like the Dodgers were slightly better through the course of the regular season. You're right though that the better team doesn't always win. The bottom line was that this was a series between two roughly equivalent teams and the Cardinals didn't deserve the -140 odds that the line was asking. The value investment was always on the Dodgers in this series.

It was really really far from being a "sell your house" on the Cardinals kind of thing.

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