Well, I got greedy and lost my parlay because I had ATL -3.5, instead of the ML. I'm just gonna start taking ML's from now on, if I can only get it to as low as -4 by buying points. Stop being greedy!!!
I analyzed three games today:
Phx -7 @ NJ, 219 --> I have this game capped Suns -6 based off season stats, but off recent stats, this is very close. I defer to NBAstuffer.com for their insight, and they have a 107-99 Phx win. However, my totals have the game between 211.5 - 217.7. NJ is a hell of a team to deal with at home, but Phoenix is playing some terrific ball right now...and I don't know who can stop Amara/Shaq from scoring instead all night.
Phx -7, over 219
Mil @ Chi -10, 208.5 --> Both of these teams suffer from having terrible coaches. Bogut is out for the Bucks, taking away 14-18 inside points and 10-12 rebounds. The Bulls should be able to dominate inside, but I fear of their full quarter collapses. What I'll cash in on again, is the totals play. The highest total I get is 198 in any scenario.
Under 208.5
GS @ Den -7.5, 239 --> Holy totals Batman! NBA Stuffer has this game going 113-109 Denver. I have Den 114 - GS 110. I hate going against them as they're 68% on sides. Their totals leave a lot to be desired. My problem is that Denver always has a big let down in the 1H defensively. They don't even try to recover on weakside ball reversals, leading to a lot of open treys. Dallas lit them up in the 1H, but when Stackhouse/Howard were disabled, Denver just kept on doing their thing, and won the game. In their last 5 games, the splits on Denver are:
1H Den 56.4 - Opp 60.2
2H Den 60.6 - Opp 47.8
1H GS 60 - Opp 50.2
2H GS 51.8 - Opp 55
Does anybody see a trend?
This game should be a closely contested shootout...both teams attack on the fastbreak and turnovers. In all honesty, they both have done a good job of protecting the ball in their last handful of games. Denver is a midrange team, that has JR Smith/Kleiza and occasionally AI/Melo draining treys. GS is super effective with Monte/Baron/Jackson as their anchors, but Baron was sketchy last game with the flu, and they weren't able to pull away from Portland until late. I'll take GS +8...Denver doesn't have the ability to pull away from teams consistently....
Plays:
Phx -7
Phx over 218.5
Chi under 208.5
GS +8
But this is all being teased:
Phx -2, Phx o213.5, Chi u213.5, GS +13
my strong plays are Phx -6.5, and Chi under 208.5...so I will parlay them seperately.
I'm also already looking ahead to Dal @ GS -5, 210 for tomorrow...with GS ML + u210 looking like a great parlay.