pistol589's Blog

Posted Wednesday, December 07, 2011 03:52 PM

NHL Home Chase and Over/Under system

I've been using a couple of NHL systems with pretty good results over the past few years. The first uses a modified version of the three game home stand chase system that has a running thread on it. I just added few simple filters and additions after back testing.  Bet on a team that has a three game home stand or longer if the opening game closing ML is -120 or higher.  If there is a longer than 3 game home stand and the first game did not qualify, start a chase if the stand has at least 3 games left and the closing ML is -140 or higher.  I've been using a labby line for this system. 

Since the 05-06 results are as follows:

A bets - 356-205
B bets - 114-91
C bets - 61-30

The other system is an over/under system that starts betting the opposite of over or under streaks.  If a team has 3 overs in a row, start betting the under.  If a team has 5 unders in a row, start betting the over.  I back tested this back to the lockout, when shootouts started and no more ties.  I use a martindale system of 1, 2.03, 4.13, 8.39, 17.06, 34.6, & 60.  Those amounts should average out the + & - odds over time. 

Since the 05-06 season annual results would have been:

10-11 - +130 units
09-10 - +157 units
08-09 - +67 units
07-08 - +149 units
06-07 - +156 units
05-60 - +93 units









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User: pistol589
Joined: December 2009
Location: Texas
Team: Wisconsin Badgers
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

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