SEVERAL YEARS AGO AN AUTHOR ON HORSE RACING (FREDRICK DAVIS) CREATED A METHOD FOR PLAYING HORSES CALLED IMPACT VALUES. TOM AINSLIE THE FATHER OF GOOD HORSERACING BOOKS SOLD IT UNDER HIS  UMBRELLA. IMPACT VALUES GO SOMETHING LIKE THIS USING THIS EXAMPLE. YOU WANT TO FIND OUT THE ODDS OF A WOMEN WHO SMOKES  AND WHO DRIVES A GREEN CAR IN THE NEXT CAR YOU SEE.  LETS SAY THERE ARE 20 CARS. 10 ARE GREEN. 8 PEOPLE SMOKE WHO DRIVE ONE OF THOSE 20 CARS. 5 PEOPLE ARE WOMEN IN ONE OF THOSE  20 CARS. AN IMPACT VALUE IS  DEFINED AS AN INDEPENDENT FACTOR FROM ANY OTHER INFORMATION USED, THEREFORE ALL 3 PIECES OF INFO IN THIS EXAMPLE ARE INDEPENDENT OF EACH OTHER. SINCE THERE ARE 10 GREEN CARS , THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF FINDING A GREEN CAR . SINCE 40% OF ALL PEOPLE SMOKE IT IS NOW  DOWN TO 4 POTENTIAL WOMEN  HO DRIVE A GREEN CAR AND SMOKE SINCE 40% OF 10 IS 4 . FIVE PEOPLE ARE WOMEN OR 25% OF THE REMAINDER, SO NOW 1 IN 20  CARS WOULD ON AVERAGE HAVE A WOMAN IN IT WHO SMOKES . IF YOU WERE  GIVEN 19 TO 1 ODDS YOU WOULD BREAK EVEN IN THE LONG RUN. IF 25-1 YOU WOULD MAKE MONEY AND IF  10-1 YOU WOULD LOSE HEAVILY. LET US ASSUME THE BETTING LINE IS 19-1 BUT WE HAVE ADDED INFORMATION  THAT THE LINEMAKERS DO NOT HAVE. WE FIND OUT THAT WOMEN DRIVERS DRIVE TWICE AS OFTEN FROM 4 TO 6 PM. LET US SAY THEY ARE SCHOOL TEACHERS AND ARE JUST GTTING HOME BETWEEN THOSE TIMES. ALL OF SUDDEN YOU HAVE A VALUE PLAY. YOU WOULD MAKE A LOT OF MONEY WITH THIS INFOMATION IN THE LONG RUN. NOW LET US ASSUME  THE OPPOSITE,THAT WOMEN DRIVERS DRIVE HALF AS MUCH FROM  8 TO 10PM. NOW YOU WOULD LOSE HALF YOUR MONEY, ON AVERAGE PER PLAY. THE OBJECT IS TO USE VALID INFORMATION OTHERS DO NOT HAVE AND THEN YOU ACT UPON IT. THIS APPROACH IS WHAT I DO IN FOOTBALL AND BASKETBALL. I THEN KEEP IT IN MECHANICAL FORM. SINCE IN THE CASE OF THE CAR EXAMPLE WE ARE GETTING 19-1 ODDS WHEN WE SHOULD GET 9-1 ODDS WE WOULD INVEST A SAFE AMOUNT OF MONEY.   I WOULD INVEST ABOUT 2% OF MY MONEY. THAT WOULD GET ME THROUGH A BAD STREAK. I SUGGEST USING THIS METHOD TO ANYONE WANTING TO DO THE WORK. IF YOU DO THIS AND YOUR DATA IS ACCURATE YOU WILL MAKE MONEY AND PERHAPS A GREAT DEAL OF IT,  THAT IS IF YOU USE A GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM.

 PROF K