psic's Blog

Making Money Betting Halftimes

By psic | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, October 08, 2008 04:56 PM   8 comments
One of the questions I get the most is about halftimes....and believe me if you master halftimes, you may consider not making a bet until the half.

Halftime wagers are great for nailing middles as well as protecting what could be a bad bet and I want to share with everyone 2 situations that you should look for and these two are all you need to make good money betting at the half.



Situation #1 - The Underdog is leading at the half and the Favorite gets a "cheap line"

Lets say that Team A is a 7 point favorite and is trailing by 10 at the half.   For a team like this, the favorite,  the line should be close to the original spread or higher if the powers that be creating halftimes believe that this team is going to make a run.

If the game were tied, as a bare minimum they would have to be at least -4 (just over half the original spread.)  Most of the time, in our above scenario,  you'll see a line of -7 to -10, or higher at the half but lets suppose you see -3.  Think about the logic....you've bet a team at -7 and they are down by 10 at half so the friendly sportsbook feels so bad for you that you're losing your wager they want to give you .a chance to get your money back...right?  I mean who wouldn't want to take a team that was -7 and bet them at +7.....that's basically what a -3 halftime would equate to.     Do you really think, especially if the public has heavily bet the favorite, that the sportsbooks are just going to GIVE YOU AN OUT?  No way that is a big fat trap and a -3 halftime in this situation is an AUTOMATIC play on the dog if you're going to play at all.

Always keep your eyes out for the "too good to be true" halftime line on the favorite.

Situation #2 - The favorite is covering the spread by nearly double or more and they are still the favorite at halftime.    This little puppy got me a nice little halftime parlay last weekend and is one you should definately keep in your arseanal.   I'll give  you 3 examples from last Sunday's NFL.

Carolina up by 21 at half and the halftime comes out -3.  Now if you bet Carolina at -9.5...why on earth would you take them at -24?   Obviously the sportsbook people are DESPERATELY trying to lead you AWAY from Carolina.....if they don't want  you to bet it.....it's probably a winnner and obviously Carolina was a 2nd half winner.

NY Giants up by 20+ at the half and open up a favorite.  They are already covering by 2 touchdowns and they are still the favorite???  needless to say, you know that one turned out...a big fat winner.

Arizona -2.5 for the game was up by 10 at the half and the public was strong on Buffalo.  Halftime line was Arizona -1 or pick.   If you had Buffalo, this looks like a gift right?  I mean who wouldn't want Buffalo +10 in this game......the sportsbooks doubled down and sucked the public in hook line and sinker as Arizona was a runaway 2nd half winner.

If you really get a grasp on thses two scenarios you will greatly improve your bottom line in sports betting......Always ask yourself at the half......"Who do they want me NOT to bet"    or if the public is very strong on the game are they "does it look like they are giving the public an EASY OUT"

These two scenarios show up in NCAA Football and Basketball as well as NBA and NFL.

Good Luck and happy halftime hunting
8 comments
comment Post A Comment
joelags says:
10/08/08 05:16PM
nice write up bro.  so youre basically saying follow the team that is hot into the 2nd half? 
jp1lsu says:
10/08/08 05:40PM
Psic,

 

What i really liked was ingame betting.  Pinny used to have it and my new book doesnt. 

 

I can tell you that taking a lot of ML dogs I run into a number of situations where the dog has a 1/2 time lead and I get an opportunity to hedge at the half.  Too many times the situation comes up where you can't have both wins, so either you hedge or you dont.  I could have saved a nice bit of coin if I wasnt greedy with the lead. 

 

BOL

tommygunnz says:
10/08/08 05:41PM
thank you for that
Zumbize says:
10/08/08 07:07PM
I went ahead and looked at the 2nd halves from Week 6 that obviously fell into this criteria. I'm sure there were others, but I just looked at the games where the outcomes and lines were easy to figure out. I invite anyone with access to actual halftime lines and results to correct me or add on.

Ws
Pitt Over USF
Cincy Over Marshall
Army Over Tulane
Temple Over Miami (OH)
TCU Over SDSU
Virginia Over MD
UNC Over UCONN
UTEP Over USM
USC Over Oregon
Missou Over NEB
Hawaii Over Fresno (Thanks to Fresno's weak ass kicker.)

Ls
MTSU Over FAU
Utah St. Over BYU
Akron Over Kent St.
Iowa Over MSU
Kansas Over ISU
Miami Over FSU
Kentucky Over Bama

11-7 isn't bad at all.

Still, I'd be very surprised if blindly betting the "valueless" halftime line hits at a percentage far above break even, especially in CBB, where momentum shifts so easily. There are always situations in college sports, basketball especially, involving dominant home teams where the cheap halftime line almost must be played. The weaker team usually finds maintaining the poise and momentum to win SU very difficult, and you cash the cheap line.

The nature of the game makes football a very different animal. Guess I'll try to start changing my ways.
Cyrax says:
10/08/08 07:16PM
Good Info, Thanks
Chilid says:
10/08/08 07:40PM
Zumbize,

im looking for site were u can look up half time lines any help is app. thx.chili d

 

Zumbize says:
10/08/08 10:21PM
Chilid - I don't know of one, so if you find one come back tell us. All I did (for one week, obviously a tiny sample) was look at scores involving either large spreads or large halftime deficits and apply common sense to determine the halftime lines. Army was up at 16 the break and were 20 point dogs, therefore I know the halftime line was Tulane -"x". Tulane ended up losing by 31. Army would have been a winner using psic's advice.

psic - Thanks for starting the thread. I've been guilty a few times already of falling into the "easy" 2nd half this season in football, so it definitely got my attention. (Off topic, but did the sweep system pick up steam after the All Star break? This was my first year with MLB, and let's just say I had to pull the plug...)

S_A_I_N_T_S says:
10/09/08 12:39AM
This is good stuff PSIC. I fell into a couple of these traps in the NFL a couple weeks ago. will definitely keep it in mind going forward bro. 

BOL
Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 
Advertisement