Posted Tuesday, February 08, 2011 08:52 AM
So tomorrow the Thunder are 7 point favorites at home against Memphis. I think the value here lies in backing OKC.
This will be the Grizzlies 4th game in 5 nights, and also the road end of a back to back. In addition to these legitimate angles, the first game of this back-to-back happened to be a home game against the Lakers, a game that Memphis definitely wanted badly and exerted a lot of energy in. I just think this is a good stretch to fade Memphis--if you look at tonight's box score against the Lakers, the Grizzlies' starting five were a combined -47 for the game. This is telling me they were already tired tonight, and will not have much left in the tank tomorrow.
Meanwhile, OKC has won 6 of 7. They have been home for two days to rest after big wins at Phoenix and Utah, and will not play again until Saturday after Tuesday's home game vs. Memphis. They have beaten Memphis in OKC each of the last three times they've played, and will emphasize the importance of a crisp win to have good things to build off in a busy practice week. I expect Brooks to make it clear how important this game along with Saturday's game are for them to win, it's rare to get SUCH a scheduling advantage and they must capitalize.
In terms of the actual line, going off of a pure read it seems as though bookmakers couldnt've opened OKC any higher than -7. Looks as though they want Memphis money.
Let me know what you guys think, all constructive thoughts are welcome.... [More]