Im giving you the Astros. Yup the good ol Astros OVER 74.5

Heres why the SP is better than average.

1) Wandy Rodriguez can only get better. He struck out 193 in 205 ip last year. With 14 wins he led the staff. He also allowed less than a hit an inning
2) Roy Oswalt. He was hurt most of last year and responded with his worst season ever. He will return the his previous form making him a deadly number 2 SP
3) Brett Myers will hate pitching in Houstons bandbox but Philly was no better. However the difference is that Myers will not feel quite the same pressure he did in Philly. I expect 15 wins and maybe 175 ks with no injuries.
4) Bud Norris. Believe it or not he was a top prospect for the Stros. He pitched well last year for a rook. He will get better as long as his walks get lower. He has a decent K rate and I expe ct Norris to remain in the rotation but be topped out at around 175 ip.
5) a tossup between Moeler,Pualino,Bazardo. I expect Pualino to win this battle with almost a K an inning I say he wins the 5th starter job and runs with it.. His era will be in the low 5s or high 4s. Not good but good enuff with the stros offense.

1) Bourn. A base stealing threat every time he is on base. Stole 61 bags last year and even hit .285 A Perfect leadoff man. Expect Bourns average to remain about where he hit last year but Im thinking around 80 bags will be stolen
2) Pence. Hunter will be Hunter. I am stopping the Pence breakout year bandwagon I have been on. However for a 2nd place hitter 25-80 .280 isnt to shabby
3) Berkman. - Yes last year WAS a sign of things to come. But I do think he still tops the 25 home run 100 rbi mark but this time with a lower then usual avg. Lets say .260
4) Lee. With Carlos you get consistency. He will hit his 25-35 home runs and get his 100 rbi. A perfect cleanup man.
5) Feliz. Pedro isnt all that bad. He will drive in a few and hit a few dingers. Not a typical 5th place hitter but is an excellent defender
6) Matsui. See above
7) Keppinger. 1 .250 hitter with teen Hr power. Dont expect much so anything above that is a blessing.
8) Towles.,Quintero. One could break out but I expect a platoon.

Rp is decent probably better than most. With Lindstrom and Lyon there will be an excellent 8-9 bridge to either or. Not sure who is getting the saves but each has good experience.

So with good SP and average hitting I think the Astros get to 80 wins rather easily. You can argue with me all you want but i correctly predicted the Rays-Royals and the Rangers the last three years and niether of them was close.

Astros OVER 74.5