ralph2026's Blog

NFL Winners With Write Up

By ralph2026 | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, December 02, 2012 01:11 AM   16 comments
Minnesota Vikings +9½ (-123) over Green Bay Packers: The Packers are coming off of their worst game of the season asGreen Bay got down quickly and trailed 31-10 at halftime vs. the New York Giants before being held scoreless in the second half of an ugly 38-10 loss. Aaron Rodgers had a very pedestrian effort, completing only 14-of-29 passes for 219 yards, and when that happens the Packers are in trouble because they have absolutely no running game to fall back on right now. Now we expect Rodgers to bounce back strong here because the reining MVP almost never has two bad games in a row. The problem we see with this big spread though is the defense. Green Bay is playing without Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson right now and the defense has allowed 742 total yards over the last two games. The Viking have the leading rusher in the NFL in Adrian Peterson, who has been indefensible this season even for the best of defenses, such as when he rushed to 108 yards on 18 carries vs. the Chicago Bears last week. We do not see the Green Bay defense slowing him down right now, and having to worry about Peterson should also slow down the very good Packers’ pass rush, giving Christian Ponder time to throw against the 22nd ranked Green Bay pass defense.

St. Louis Rams +7 (-102) over San Francisco 49ers: The Rams have played well in two of their three games since their bye week, first playing these 49ers to a rare 24-24 tie in their first game following the bye and then scoring a season-high in points in a 31-17 road win over the Arizona Cardinals last week. Of course those good efforts were sandwiched around a clunker of a loss to the New York Jets here at home, but that Jets’ game was the only game all season where the Rams were favored, and they are not a good enough team to be giving points. The Rams make very pesky underdogs though, especially getting this many points at home. St. Louis is 3-1 straight up as an underdog in the Edward Jones Dome this year. Going back to that tie in San Francisco, the Rams actually outgained the Niners by 117 total yards in that contest, as Steven Jackson rushed for 101 yards vs. a San Francisco run defense that has permitted three 100-yard rushers in the last six games after allowing only one in the previous 44 contests, and Sam Bradford passed for 275 yards vs. what is currently the second ranked passing defense in football. The 49ers are again starting Colin Kaepernick at quarterback after a 31-21 win over the Saints last week, but that game would have been different if the Niners did not run back two interceptions for touchdowns.

Good Luck To Everyone 

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ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 2:11:51 AM
Denver Broncos -8 (+114) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: At first glance, this looks like a lot of points to give a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that has scored at least 22 points in eight straight games. However, keep in mind that we are talking about Peyton Manning passing against a Buccaneers’ pass defense ranked dead last in the NFL, surrendering  a dreadful 314.9 passing yards per game on 8.1 yards per pass attempt! Besides, the Broncos took their “breather” in Kansas City last week, beating the 1-10 Chiefs just 17-9, and even there, Manning threw for 285 yards. Running back Knowshon Moreno ran well in his first start for the injured Willis McGahee, rushing for 85 yards in 20 attempts. He does not figure to do as well this week vs. what is statistically the top ranked rushing defense in the NFL with Tampa Bay allowing only 81.5 yards per game on the ground, but that will not matter with Manning picking apart that secondary. That means that the Bucs will have to score to keep up, and they will not have as easy a time doing so as they have been vs. a Denver team ranking fourth in total defense, fifth in passing defense and ninth in rushing defense. Look for the Broncos to extend their winning streak to seven games in emphatic fashion.
Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans ‘under’ 47 (-104): TheTexans are coming off of back-to-back high scoring overtime wins vs. the Jaguars and Lions, and although Houston escaped with victories in those games, that is not how it wants to play. This is a team built on defense and a great running game, and look for the Texans to use both of those aspects in a return to normalcy this week as they go back to playing Houston Football. Running back Arian Foster should have no trouble finding holes vs. a 27th ranked Tennessee rushing defense, so look for the Texans to control the clock by giving him the ball early and often. As for the defense, perhaps it has gotten complacent with a division title basically assured? Whatever the reason, you can bet that it received a tongue lashing for its performances over the last two weeks. This seems like a great spot to get back to normal vs. a 24th ranked Tennessee offense that has a quarterback in Jake Locker that will not frighten anyone. The best part of the Tennessee offense right  now is running back Chris Johnson, who appears to be back to his old self, so Houston will not be the only team running the ball a lot here, leading to a rather safe ‘under’.

Good Luck To Everyone 

ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 2:14:12 AM
Detroit Lions -5 (-107) over Indianapolis Colts: If the season ended right now, the Colts would earn the number one wild card spot in the AFC with a 7-4 record after Indianapolis won five of its last six games. However the season does not end today and we see the Colts dropping out of the playoff race eventually, and that regression could easily begin this week. The Colts still have major issues on defense, a fact that has been masked by facing an easy schedule so far. In fact, the Colts are only ranked 24th overall on the Sagarin Ratings thanks to facing a schedule ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams. They have just one win vs. a Sagarin Top 10 team, and that was the win over the Packers when Indianapolis played with unbelievable emption in its first game after Coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. The Lions have had extra time to prepare for this game since playing on Thanksgiving Day, and although they suffered a heartbreaking 34-31 overtime loss to the Texans after leading for the entire game, they ran up a whopping 525 yards vs. a Houston team that ranked second in total defense entering that game, dropping it to sixth currently. Matthew Stafford passed for 441 yards with Calvin Johnson being on the receiving end of 140 of them and Ryan Broyles hauling in 126, and even the running game produced 106 yards. Look for the Detroit skill position players to expose the Colts’ defense en route to a safe win.

Good Luck To Everyone 
ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 2:33:23 AM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos

Both the Buccaneers and Broncos are playing great football right now, but no one's hotter than Denver.

Now Denver returns to Mile High, where they're classified as nine-point favorites in the NFL odds. Seems a little high up against an upstart Bucs team, but the Broncos are #4 in both total offense and defense and could very well overwhelm Tampa Bay.

Peyton Manning is playing as well as he ever has and has led the Broncos to six straight wins, four of which were on the road. 

So, instead I'm going with a play on the total. The OVER has gone 7-1 in Tampa Bay's last eight games and 5-2 in Denver's last seven. Can you tell which way I'm leaning? 

In years past I would've been wary on backing an OVER when the Buccaneers are involved, but Josh Freeman has been terrific and they have a lot of playmakers surrounding him now. Doug Martin is a bonafide star now and Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams continue to make big catches downfield.

I feel like there's going to be a lot of significant-yardage plays in this game, with two confident passers chucking it to Martin/Jackson/Williams on one side and Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker on the other. Therefore, let's not be scared away from this reasonably high total. 

NFL Pick: OVER 50

ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 8:28:28 AM
Hopefully these games win 
sungod95 says:
12/2/2012 9:09:07 AM
Timmy_the_Greek says:
12/2/2012 9:42:29 AM
nice analysis...thanks for sharing!  GL!
ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 9:51:47 AM
ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 9:53:07 AM
Paidonjok says:
12/2/2012 10:02:31 AM
Great writeup, Ralph2026!
ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 10:06:56 AM
ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 11:07:19 AM
Battle Between Two Last Place TeamsA couple of NFL bottom feeders face each other as the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9, SU, 5-0 ATS away) travel to upstate New York to face the Buffalo Bills (4-7 SU, 2-2 ATS home) 

The last place Jacksonville Jaguars come into this matchup with just two straight up wins on the year in what has turned out to be a very dismal 2012 campaign.

The Jaguars rank at or near the bottom of the league in every offensive category.

In fact, their 286.5 total yards per game is a league worst. They rush for just 81.4 yards per contest (31st), while tossing the ball for another 205.1 yards (26th). Those numbers equal to 17.1 points per game, which ranks 29thin the NFL.

On the defensive side of the ball, things don’t get any better.

They surrender an average of 28.0 points each game to opponents, while giving up over 400 total yards – both of which rank 29th and 31st in the league respectively.

But, they are a compete mess on defense.

They are giving up 29 points per game (30th in the league) and 380.5 total yards.

Their run defense is atrocious, allowing teams to gain nearly 150 yards against them, which ranks 26th overall.

Unfortunately the Bills aren’t too impressive against the spread

Anyway you look at it this game, it’s a mess. However, the Jaguars at +6.5 seems to make a lot more sense than the Bills laying the chalk in this one.

Good Luck To Everyone

ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 1:44:52 PM
Lets All Make Some Money Today 
AAY says:
12/2/2012 2:42:06 PM

Good Luck

ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 2:54:47 PM
ralph2026 says:
12/2/2012 3:15:06 PM
Wow I'm looking pretty good so far 
squids says:
12/2/2012 3:21:25 PM
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User: ralph2026
Joined: July 2011
Location: New York
Occupation: Engineering

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