rated91's Blog

Posted Friday, September 07, 2012 04:19 PM

Rated's Legacy Campaign - week 2 (update)

Friday's Result (9/7):NCAAF: 1* Utah -6.5 over Utah State
Saturday's Result (9/8):NCAAF: 3* Nebraska -5.5 over UCLA
NCAAF: 4* Georgia -1.5 over MissouriNCAAF: 2* Florida +3 over Texas A&MNCAAF: 1* UL Lafayette +3 over TroyNCAAF: 5* Virginia -9.5 over Penn State 
NCAAF: 5* Mississippi State -3 over Auburn

Sunday's Result (9/2):NFL: 6* Houston -7 over MiamiNFL: 5* New Orleans -6 over Washington

Monday's Result (9/3):NFL: (Lean) Cincinnati +7, Raiders pk


Last weeks  Result: 7-6 (+ $1,110)7-6 (53.8%)... [More]

Posted Wednesday, September 05, 2012 04:18 PM

Rated's Legacy Campaign - week 2

Wednesday's Result (9/3):NFL:  1* Take NY Giants -3 over Dallas Cowboys
Friday's Result (9/7):NCAAF: (Lean) Utah -7 over Utah State
Saturday's Result (9/8):NCAAF: 4* Georgia -1.5 over MissouriNCAAF: 6* Florida +3 over Texas A&MNCAAF: 4* UL Lafayette +3 over Troy
Sunday's Result (9/2):NFL: 6* Houston -7 over Miami
Monday's Result (9/3):NFL: (Lean) Cincinnati +7, Raiders pk
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Last weeks  Result: 7-6 (+ $1,110)7-6 (53.8%)... [More]

Posted Tuesday, August 28, 2012 07:39 PM

Rated's NCAAF Campaign - Week 1 plays

Record: NCAAF 0-0 
Thursday's  Result (8/30):1* South Carolina -6.5 over Vanderbilt1* Eastern Michigan +3.5 over Ball State1* 6 pt teaser: South Carolina -1 over Vanderbilt/ Minnesota -1 over UNLVFriday's Result (8/31):3* Take NC State +3 over TennesseeSaturday's Result (9/1):1* Navy +17 over Notre Dame2*  Northwestern -1 over Syracuse2*  Western Michigan +10.5 over Illinois4* Troy -5.5 over UAB4* Iowa St +1.5 over Tulsa5* Clemson -3 over Auburn4* Toledo +10.5 over ArizonaSunday's Result (9/2):1* SMU +13 over Baylor Monday's Result (9/3): 1* Georgia Tech +7.5 over Virginia Tech
... [More]

Posted Monday, August 13, 2012 09:11 PM

Stanford o7 - Sportsbooks disparity

Sat 9/1 18443 Stanford total wins over 7 -265      12:00PM 18444 Stanford total wins under 7  +225      Sat 9/1 18445 Stanford total wins over 7½ -155      12:00PM 18446 Stanford total wins under 7½  +115  
Gents, above is what 5dimes has priced as Stanford's win total. Stanford o7 -265. Below is what my local has for the same wager:
1965[More]

Posted Wednesday, August 01, 2012 08:07 PM

Things not to do when seeing the new Batman movie...

Apparently if you decide to get up at the end of the movie and start yelling "THIS IS IT!!! THIS IS IT!!!" your going to:

a.) Send the crowded theatre attendees into a panicked stampede, as they nearly trample one another to the jam packed exits

b.) be confronted with and have to fight/wrestle 2+ theatre patrons, as they are alarmed (fight/flight adrenaline dump) and want to take you down believing your intending some type of widespread harm.

c.) have to survive a beating from the police once they arrive, with the Colorado shootings fresh on their minds. 

--All of this because you decided to have a few drinks then get riled and start yelling at the end of a movie. Your going to be charged with a misdemeanor of disorderly conduct. What happened to the America that we used to know?



Posted Friday, July 27, 2012 10:38 PM

Death of baseball in Philly

The Phillies just absolutely stink. Team is nothing but a bunch of dead bats, no consistency on the offensive end- either they might have a big inning here or there but usually wayyy too far in between. They've reached out in the past 2 weeks to dangle Jimmy Rollins, only to ask for way too much for the aging shortstop, now they are hours away from dealing an allstar, goldglove centerfielder in Victorino for a relief pitcher. A relief pitcher??? Is that a sick joke??? 

On top of that mess, they open up 2012 as the first team in MLB history to have two $20-M-PER-YEAR pitchers on their roster (Lee and Halladay) and now they are the 1st team in the history of the league with THREE $20-M-PER-YEAR pitchers!!! And depending on how Hamels deal is structured, they now are obligated to pay $95-M-PER-YEAR to 4 players (The 3 pitchers + Ryan Howard) - That spending (and not much in return with production) means they are absolutely up shits creek. I think the deals they are signing are unsustainable, Ruben Amaro is a P.O.S. GM (he doesnt find undervalued GEMs like Pat Gillick did, ie. Jason Werth), all Amaro does is sign big checks - with a team that is NOT the Yankees, therefore all this spending is not economically viable. The spending is unsustainable and the phillies are really in trouble.


Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 07:09 PM

Daily Public Fade - tonight on KC Royals

Looking at two heavy public teams and tonight I'm going with the KC Royals at +180. Right now about 98% of the public is on the LAA. So we are fading the team we were on last night. We will also take the KC Royals TT o3 -115 and put that in our pockets as well. I think C.J. Wilson will allow at least 2-3 all by himself over 6, as he is sporting an ERA over 5. The entire game looks like it might be good for over 7.5 as well. 

7/23: KC Royals +180 

7/22: LAA Angels EV *Win* 


Posted Sunday, July 22, 2012 11:57 AM

Max bet - 9/15 Michigan State -2.5

Notre Dame at Michigan State - has action if played before 9/18
Sat 9/15 187 Notre Dame  +2½ -110      
8:00PM 188 Michigan State  -2½ -110 



This looks like a great value to me. The Spartans overachieved a little bit last season and didn't run the ball particularly well, but underachieved big time at ND in losing 13-31. This is a revenge play, and this year the Spartans bring in a defense almost as good as a top SEC defense, have the #1 rated O-Line in the country and the #2 rated D-Line in the country - thats where the games are won. This years squad gets back to the title game with a 10 win season. As for ND- the visitor in this matchup has dropped 4 straight. This is a nasty rivalry, and I think ND is being overvalued by only getting 2.5, as their going to be struggling in their first real test of the season after wins over Navy and Purdue.

Posted Monday, July 09, 2012 10:45 PM

BEST VALUES FOR NCAAF RSW - Notre Dame u8.5

Note Dame UNDER 8.5 ( priced from -195 to -200)
I know it's not priced ideally, and most of us who would have bet this have already put it in our pockets, but this is going to be a rough year for Notre Dame. 
Their best defensive lineman transfers out, they lost their best offensive player from a season ago in this years draft, THIS IS AN 8 WIN TEAM FROM A YEAR AGO THAT HAS NOT GOTTEN BETTER - AND PLAYS A MORE DIFFICULT SCHEDULE.
 Out from a year ago are South Florida (a disappointing 23-20 opener loss), Air Force (a 56-33 drubbing), and Maryland (a 45-21 dismantling) and IN this year are: Miami October 6, BYU October 20th, @ Oklahoma October 27, a major upgrade in caliber of opponents not normally scheduled. And this is in addition to Michigan St (Sep 15), Michigan (Sep 22), Stanford (Oct 13), and USC (Nov 24). 
The only game that should be a guaranteed win for Notre Dame on this schedule is the Sept 1 opener vs Navy, and they should win 3 straight vs Pitt, BC and Wake on Nov 3,10, and 17 although looking at how close the Wake game was last year (24-17) it is very possible there could be an upset in there.
THIS NOTRE DAME TEAM IS AT THE VERY BEST AN 8-4 TEAM, MAKING THAT .5 HOOK OUT THERE EXTREMELY VALUABLE.
They are definately losing one of the swing games to Michigan State/Michigan (if they lose both then this bet will surely hit), Oklahoma and USC. If they somehow beat either Michigan State or Michigan (highly doubtful to even cover either... [More]

Posted Monday, July 09, 2012 10:44 PM

BEST VALUES FOR NCAAF RSW - OK State o7.5

OKLAHOMA STATE OVER 7.5 (priced from -110 to -165)
Again, I saw this on 5dimes at -165 but on my local bookies site at -110, I grabbed it immediately. Another mistake. If the oddsmakers were really THAT good they would be betting their own money instead of making book for some corporation. 
Ever remember a freshman quarterback being named the starter in the spring, two months after he enrolled? It's highly uncommon -- and that's because of the knowledge and aptitude required to play the position at a high level in a major conference. Wes Lunt was simply that impressive after his arrival in January. Don't underestimate, too, the fact that the Illinois native was handpicked by Monken. It's very difficult, sitting here in June, to project how Lunt will fare as a freshman starting quarterback in the Big 12. If he can run the offense anywhere near as efficiently as Weeden did, the Cowboys could catch the league off guard and even compete for the Big 12 title. We figure that might be asking a bit much, but 8 wins isn't. 
The defense on this team is really good and was often overlooked by the offense last season. The Cowboys still allowed only 26.8 points a game, which certainly doesn't correlate to that yardage figure. Aiding that, in particular, was its nation-leading 44 takeaways that created a lot of short fields for Weeden and the offense. The Pokes were eighth in the country in average starting field position, their own 36-yard line. Lunt assuredly would app... [More]

Posted Monday, July 09, 2012 10:42 PM

BEST VALUES FOR NCAAF RSW - Stanford o7

STANFORD OVER 7 (priced anywhere from -115 to -160)
I was able to pick this up at over 7 -115 on a website that my local bookie uses. It's wayyy behind updating point spread changes so while 5 dimes currently lists this at -160 I was able to nab it up for much cheaper. THIS STANFORD UNIT IS A 10 WIN TEAM THIS SEASON AND THIS IS A HUGE ERROR UP ON BEHALF OF THE ODDSMAKERS in my mind. They'll adjust it in a few weeks, but as of right now we can pick this up and put it in our pockets. 
What does Stanford without Luck and Fleener bring to the table? Stanford was always a run-first team under his tenure (the highest pass-run ratio by the Cardinal in his three years was a 45-55 split in 2011). That's right -- the passing attack that helped display the talents of a No. 1 pick wasn't even getting a simple majority of the plays. Stanford returns its top three leading rushers from a 2011 campaign that tallied a total of 2,738 yards, the third-most in school history. 
Stanford is also a good defensive team that was often overlooked with the spotlight always shining on the offense. To get some perspective on just how dominant the Cardinal's defensive front seven were last year, consider that Stanford ranked third in the nation in rushing defense and 11th in sacks per game. That type of statistical achievement should be the goal in 2012 as well, since the Cardinal return six of their starting front seven, including two who were first- or second-team ... [More]

Posted Friday, July 06, 2012 03:14 PM

Best Value Bets for UFC 148

Sonnen +220 over Silva
While it is true that Sonnen has a high likelihood of being submitted again, with 72 percent of his losses coming in this fashion, and though Silva's stand-up is always a factor, there is no reason to believe that this fight should go any differently than it did in the first 4½ rounds of the first match. That being said, it seems there is plenty of value here for Sonnen at plus-220, given his ability to control the fight again.
Ortiz +260 over Griffin
If you're simply basing it on past odds, what you have in Forrest Griffin versus Tito Ortiz III is as close to a coin flip as you can get in MMA. In their previous two meetings, Griffin and Ortiz have split, with both fights ending in a split decision. So why is Ortiz such a considerable underdog to Griffin in this matchup?
True, there might be a slight age advantage of four years, and Griffin does historically out strike Ortiz with 4.27 (SLpM) compared to Ortiz's 2.47 (SLpM). But from a technical perspective, Ortiz has the ability to beat Griffin by taking this fight to the ground, with his average of 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. Given there isn't any good indication that this third fight won't be as close as the first two, getting more than 2-1 odds on Ortiz is a very good value.
Kim -135 over Maia
Maia went a pathetic 0-for-7 on takedown attempts in both fights vs Munoz and Weidman, leading to two one-sided losses. This fight should be no different, as Kim is very good at stayi... [More]

Posted Monday, July 02, 2012 02:35 PM

Best NFL Week 1 line values

I looked over the win totals and the only thing left that I'd consider (if you can no longer get the Texas o 9.5, Seattle o 7, or StL o 5.5) is the Patriots under 12.5. 
With regards to NFL week 1 the only games I would consider betting on are games that fall on or around key numbers. Anything 2.5, 3, 3.5, 6.5, 7 or 7.5 - just trying to get on the right side of that 3 or 7 basically. 
My NFL GOY is Houston -1.5 over GB in week 6. I expect Houston to at the worst case win and cover by at least a full touchdown, but the Packers are going to be overvalued for most of their games thanks to the public.
WEEK 1 PLAYS:
1.) HOUSTON -7 over MIAMI ( 1pm, Sep 9)
The Houston Texans are my favorite to win the super bowl. This team lost Mario Williams after 5 games last year, Andre Johnson for 9 and Schaub after week 10 and still played at a high level and made a postseason run. Imagine them fully healthy? If Tannehill somehow wins the starting job in Miami it's going to be growing pains opening up against this relentless defense of the Texans, this is going to be a B-L-O-W-O-U-T !!!!!
I'm risking 550 to win 500 on this game. Some books have Houston -6.5, that's excellent line value.
2.) NEW ENGLAND -7 over TENNESSEE
You don't make money over the course of an NFL season betting against Bill Belichick. I hate the guy but he knows how to put the pieces together to win games and make a run at a chip. The only weak spot on this New England team is their 31... [More]

Posted Thursday, April 26, 2012 06:48 PM

NFL DRAFT - PAC-12 OVER/UNDER 7

I have a few different online accounts and one through a bookie. The one through the bookie is a shittier overall website, but they offer something not available on legends, 5dimes, or bovada. They offer you a chance to bet on how many players are drafted from each conference in the first round.

Here is something I found value in:

Number of PAC 12 players taken in RD 1:

7011- o7 +125
7012- u7 -155

Looking at this especially after reading up on the draft all week I think there is good value on the under here, a max bet as I have it off by two full players. This should really be +/- 5. 

Todd McShay has as his final mock draft a total of 5 PAC 12 players ( 1- Luck, 6- Kalil, 18- DeCastro, 23- Martin, 32- Fleener)

Mel Kiper Jr. also has 5 PAC 12ers going in his final mock-
(1- Luck, 3- Kalil, 20- DeCastro, 23- Martin, 32- Fleener) 

I think this is the best prop that I've found out there and I'm putting it in my pocket. Risking 465 to win 300. Best of luck gents! 


Posted Monday, April 16, 2012 11:12 PM

2nd date difficulties

Recently met a beautiful young woman on match.com, petite little jewish princess, we met at a byob in the country, just outside the city. Nice place, it's like a mansion. The conversation went nice and we continued the date over at a nearby bar, got a few pints and continued chatting. She's jewish, I'm catholic and she was just feeling out if that's something that would bother me. I tell her it honestly wouldn't as I'm pretty much an atheist at this point in my life anyway. Well i drop her off at her car and make a move, just a kiss with a little bit of tongue but not too much. Then kissed her hand and off she went. 
We talked the next day and texted a few times and she said she would be available on Tuesday to go out for a second date. I just happen to scan the local sports schedule and see that it's the 76ers last home game (vs Pacers). I ask her if she likes basketball and she tells me that she's never even been to a game before. So i scan stubhub and let her know it would be fun and then *bang* order 2 courtside seats. Now courtside Sixers tickets are wayyy cheaper than the Knicks or anybody, I'm only paying a Stubhub price of 320 for both tickets and that is knocked down off the original sellers price by about 100 bucks. But as I'm looking forward to it because I this girl is hot, has a great personality and I'm pipe dreaming might be the one for me she sends me a text "hey (my name), i feel so bad doing this to you but i just found out they need me to work tomor... [More]

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User: rated91
Joined: October 2011
Location: United States
Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Occupation: Engineering

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