I looked over the win totals and the only thing left that I'd consider (if you can no longer get the Texas o 9.5, Seattle o 7, or StL o 5.5) is the Patriots under 12.5.
With regards to NFL week 1 the only games I would consider betting on are games that fall on or around key numbers. Anything 2.5, 3, 3.5, 6.5, 7 or 7.5 - just trying to get on the right side of that 3 or 7 basically.
My NFL GOY is Houston -1.5 over GB in week 6. I expect Houston to at the worst case win and cover by at least a full touchdown, but the Packers are going to be overvalued for most of their games thanks to the public.
WEEK 1 PLAYS:
1.) HOUSTON -7 over MIAMI ( 1pm, Sep 9)
The Houston Texans are my favorite to win the super bowl. This team lost Mario Williams after 5 games last year, Andre Johnson for 9 and Schaub after week 10 and still played at a high level and made a postseason run. Imagine them fully healthy? If Tannehill somehow wins the starting job in Miami it's going to be growing pains opening up against this relentless defense of the Texans, this is going to be a B-L-O-W-O-U-T !!!!!
I'm risking 550 to win 500 on this game. Some books have Houston -6.5, that's excellent line value.
2.) NEW ENGLAND -7 over TENNESSEE
You don't make money over the course of an NFL season betting against Bill Belichick. I hate the guy but he knows how to put the pieces together to win games and make a run at a chip. The only weak spot on this New England team is their 31st ranked pass defense, but with acquiring 2 defensive starters (both LB's) in the 1st round of this draft should take some pressure off the secondary and bolster the coverage and pass rush. The Titans had a horrible season out of Chris Johnson last year and only managed around 89 rush ypg, ranking them 31st in the league. I do like how they added WR Kendall Wright of Baylor, but this defense ranked in the bottom half against the rush last year and 14th against the pass, and will all the screens Bradys going to be pulling out its going to be a long afternoon in Tennessee.
I'm risking 330 to win 300 on this game, again some books have Patriots at -6.5, great value.
3.) St Louis +9.5 over Detroit
I think Detroit is being overvalued here in week 1. Last season Bradford was banged up, he should be ready to go here plus they have upgraded their coaching department by bringing Fisher in. The Rams will be competing for multiple superbowls in the next 3+ years due to the fact that they ripped off Washington in the RG3 deal for all those draft picks (ala Herschel Walker to Minnesota, LOL - which brought Aikman, Irvin, and Emmitt Smith to Dallas), adding the massive run stopping DT Michael Brockers from LSU will help tremendously a defense that ranked 31st against the run last season. Detroit is going to be stepping out with their team from last season for the most part with the same one dimensional look (ranked 4th in passing, but 31st in rushing) with Jahvid Best as their starting RB. I think Detroit can eek out a close win here, but 9.5 or 10 points is simply way too many.
I'm risking 110 to win 100 on this game.