ratherBgambling's Blog

New York Jets @ New England Patriots Week 13

By ratherBgambling | View all Posts
Posted Friday, November 26, 2010 09:35 AM   60 comments
     I don't have a play on this game (obviously, as I don't think there is a line out anyway but I feel like we can start discussing it. The fact that I am a huge Patriots fan aside, this has to be the game of the season from an implications standpoint. Both teams are 9-2 and with each team continuing to win I'd say its fair to assume that this game is basically for the AFC East and a first round bye. Even bigger though is that the lose will be stuck with the 5 seed and almost definitely a trip to SD to play a dangerous team that nobody will want to see in the post season. For all the good each team has done this year and all of the narrow escapes (Pats getting by with sketchy pass D and the Jets winning at least 2 games (some would argue more then 2) that they shouldn't have) one team will be resting in week 18 and getting ready for a week 19 game in their own backyard while the other goes to SD to lose. Yes, I said it, whoever goes to SD to play whether its the Jets or the Pats will lose. If whoever gets the 5 seed is lucky enough to have the Chief's hold on to win the division then God bless them but I believe it will be SD.
     You'd have to think this line will be right around -4. Patriots are home with the revenge angle and are such a different team from when these teams played in week 2. The Jets have been winning but playing uninspiring football. They should have lost at least 2 of the games that they have won of late but managed to pull through. The Jets have to be thinking about what a blessing it is that they are still tied for the division lead and that they need to step up for this game. The truth is if the Jets win this game then everyone forgets about their lack luster performances against the Packers, Lions, Browns, Texans and Bengals (despite the score not being close they still looked blah). The Patriots have fought hard and grown as a team while maintaining a sparkling record, however, it all will almost be a waste if they lose this game. This game decides who has a real chance to make a deep playoff run. In a year where no team is that much better then the other home field will mean everything.
     In my humble opinion I think the Patriots pull it off a win. It will be the square side, I know, but Hoodie and Tom in a season defining game with everything on the line with a revenge angle is about all you could ask for. I think Hoodie as his coaches use the extra time to prepare just a touch better then Rex and his guys and that will be the difference. 

Not often that we get a game that almost means more then early rd playoff games in week 13. Enjoy it boys


Thoughts on the line? thoughts on the outcome? lets hear it!!!!

60 comments
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tpham89 says:
11/26/10 09:41AM

There is a line.. scroll towards the bottom.. lines are subject to change based on injuries, etc.. of course.. but week-over-week.. they tend to be relatively the same.. they will take down week 13 lines sometime on saturday.. as they do every week..

It's Pats -3.5 by the way..

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml

Jersey973 says:
11/26/10 09:57AM
I like the Pats.

- Belicheck has extra time to prepare and that is never good for the opponent. Ryan is a good coach, but Belicheck is the best, and you just know that the Patriots will be well-prepared and ready to play. 

- The Jets offense has made some great comebacks the past couple of weeks, but I didn't like the way they looked last night. Their offense has not scored a touchdown in the 1st quarter in the pass 7 games. As clutch and great as Sanchez has looked during parts of this season, he also has looked like shit sometimes. The Pats have the best quarterback in the NFL. Big advantage in the leadership/quarterback position for the Pats. (In my opinion)

- The revenge factor is big here. Pats not getting swept this season by the Jets. Once again, this will be demonstrated by Tom Brady. He will be the most intense player on the field. Sanchez doesn't have that killer instinct yet. He seems way too relaxed at certain times. 


The Jets have the better defense, but I think the Pats will find ways too score. 
ratherBgambling says:
11/26/10 10:10AM

i think the extra prep time is a distinct advantage for NE 

bigslickk says:
11/26/10 10:59AM

There is a good chance the #4 seed will be the loser of Chargers/Colts on Sunday night as both teams would be 6-5 and SD have an easier schedule the rest of the way and would own the tiebreaker on the Colts...

 

ratherBgambling says:
11/26/10 11:25AM

yeah agree
Europa says:
11/26/10 12:07PM

Week 13,

NYJ +3.5/NE -3.5

from LV Hilton.

Europa says:
11/26/10 12:13PM
Pats rarely lost to the same team twice in a season, didn't they??
ratherBgambling says:
11/26/10 12:16PM

very rare...particularly to the jets 
ratherBgambling says:
11/26/10 12:17PM

which is why im a bit surprised that this didn't open up at 4...
Europa says:
11/26/10 12:29PM

the line was set before Pats pounded Lions and Jets beat the lowly Bengals yesterday. And Jets did beat Pats earlier this season, so i think 3.5 is legit. It will be more suspected if it opened at Pats -3, in my opinion. 

ratherBgambling says:
11/26/10 12:31PM

well yeah, 3 would have been super shady...
Jay4Prez says:
11/26/10 04:18PM
I show NE fresh due down next week.  They now have moved their starting power number up 4 points since the start of the season.  This has been good for 67% ATS the fav on my end.  gl
kimoinsd808 says:
11/26/10 05:28PM
As a Jet fan, I'm horrified at the thought of Hernandez, Gronkowski and Welker having their way against any Jet DB not named Revis or Cromartie.  I think that RR will come up with enough schematically the hold down the Pats TE's and Slots.  If the Jets hold that aspect down, nothing else about the Pats O jumps out as a threat to me. 

I think BB has more to be worried about than RR.  Jets have way more on offense to stop and the Pats haven't been exactly stopping ANYONE. 

I disagree with your assessment that the Jets have been playing "uninspiring football".  It may not be pretty to us, but I think their ability to win in every way possible gives the team confidence in any situation....on the road, at home, in OT, coming from behind, holding teams off, winning with defense or offense ST.

Also, the Pats could have just as easily lost against the Ravens, Chargers and Colts.  The Lions were moving the ball against them  at-will as well.

Either way, there is no way in hell I'm betting this game. I'll just sit back and watch the fireworks!


Killer_B says:
11/26/10 05:42PM
Kim, Jets shutout at home 3 weeks ago, I'd call that quite uninspiring. Jets have been doing it with mirrors. Lucky PI call in Denver bailed them out or they would've lost to a team thats 4-15 in last 20. Sanchez continues to give up stupid/unnecessary interceptions.

Coach/qb is a huge advantage for New England, plus at home and revenge game. New England hammers them in this game.

Your smart not to bet this game and it gives away your true feelings. If you really loved them, homer or not, you'd be betting them.
kimoinsd808 says:
11/26/10 06:07PM


Jets were coming off a MNF game playing in elevation at Denver against the Broncos who just got their asses handed to them by the Ravens the week before..  That was a pretty tough situational spot for them, but they pulled it off.      Now you tell me, do you think that hurt their psyche or helped them?

Also, they've won every game and have out-yarded every opponent since laying an egg against GB.  Pretty safe to say they've bounced back don't you think?

BTW, why do you think I HAVE to bet this game?
ratherBgambling says:
11/26/10 07:29PM

Your comments about disagreeing with the uninspiring football comment i made are delusional. They have been the definition of uninspiring 
Killer_B says:
11/26/10 08:01PM
Kim, because your a gambler and it's your team. I know you don't HAVE to bet this game, because you can't convince yourself they'll hang with the Patriots in this spot.

"The Jets have way more on offense to stop." Please, do you think BB won't confuse a 2nd year qb that loves to give it up unnecessarily?

Enjoy the fireworks, I just think the Jets are going to be on the receiving end of a very, very motivated Patriot team that's going to shoot down the Jets.
kimoinsd808 says:
11/26/10 08:30PM


How so?
kimoinsd808 says:
11/26/10 08:40PM


Sanchez didn't look so confused in Game 1 did he?

You don't think the Jets are very, very motivated to keep the divisional lead and try to get home field advantage?

Me not betting this game has nothing to do with not convincing myself that the Jets have a good chance of winning the game.
kimoinsd808 says:
11/26/10 08:43PM


They've won every game right?  That would be pretty inspiring to any football team.

If you ask me, the way the Pats have been winning has been uninspiring.  Giving up 400+ yards a game and losing to the likes of the Cleveland Browns?!
Killer_B says:
11/26/10 09:13PM
Kim, The Cleveland Browns, the Cleveland Browns, oh yeah, went to overtime with the Jets. I remember now..... BTW the Browns beat the Saints in New Orleans as well. Their improved.

Please let me know when the Patriots get shutout at home after a bye week.

The Jets will be motivated but not as much a the revenge factor for the Patriots which we've seen thousands of times.

Good Luck with the Jets.....




kimoinsd808 says:
11/26/10 09:31PM
You remember the Browns?  Do you remember the Jets beat the Browns?  Do you remember the young, inexperienced, undisciplined, soft Pats D got their asses handed to them all up and down the field against the Browns?  I thought Defense was BB's specialty? 

You seem really hung up on the Jets loss against the Packers.....is that all you got?
5time786 says:
11/26/10 09:45PM

So what, they went into Pittsburgh and lit that defense up like this years Christmas tree

kimoinsd808 says:
11/26/10 09:57PM


That was a good game!  Great spot for the Pats coming off that ass-kicking in Cleveland, horrible matchup for the Steelers and a great gameplan by BB....the Pats won me a lot of money ATS and ML that night. 
Killer_B says:
11/26/10 10:01PM

It's not a hang-up it's a substantial fact. They got shutout at home after a bye week against a team that was missing many defensive players. I think it's significant. The Lions dragged them into overtime as well. I'm just not sold on them being up to this challenge on Monday night.

I wished you good luck with the Jets and I meant it.
kimoinsd808 says:
11/26/10 10:29PM


Every Jet fan knows that the Jets come out flat after their bye-weeks.  You know why?  Because RR gives the team the entire week off.  You think that would help a team, but it doesn't help this one.  They did the same thing last year after their bye week by losing to a crappy Jacksonville team.  I doubt the Jets will be taking any time off between now and December 6 so you bringing up that GB game does not fit into this game situationally speaking.

I understand that you aren't sold on the Jets and I'm not trying to sell them to you or anyone.  I'm just making counterpoints.  In fact, I like how the media and general public are more hyped on the Pats.   
ratherBgambling says:
11/26/10 11:22PM

not to mention the Browns OT scenario and the 1 in 500 win against Houston...
dnt_fade_me_bro says:
11/26/10 11:28PM
Too many fans on gambling forums.
Killer_B says:
11/26/10 11:34PM
Good point on Houston RBG. I forgot about last week, late td by jets cost me winning a contest (perhaps that's why I forgot).

My theory on why the Jets got shutout was because the entire city told them how good they were for 2 weeks leading up to the GB game and they believed them.

The general public like the Pats because they have a deep history of success, the Jets don't. Can we agree that the Jets seem to live on the edge and wouldn't be hard for them to have a 6-5 record (2 ot's, Denver gift & late drive last week) instead of 9-2?


ratherBgambling says:
11/27/10 09:58AM

ratherBgambling says:
11/27/10 10:06AM
one thing I will say for those who like the Jets is this. If they cover they will most likely win IMO. I feel like your best play would be to take the ML if you are inclined to bet Jets...just my .02 
ratherBgambling says:
12/01/10 07:21PM

Oh boy...anyone else thinking that Monday night can't come fast enough. I sure am...

 

ratherBgambling says:
12/01/10 09:58PM

wow man, insightful...
ratherBgambling says:
12/02/10 07:38AM

i especially love when people like this make accounts just to type a bone head post like that guy did. what a mess...
gales says:
12/01/10 10:53PM

pats could easily lose 3 of their last 5 with their soft d

we shall see

loss 1 comes on monday

Killer_B says:
11/27/10 02:09AM
NY teams always get higher lines (or their way) due to the number of NY bettors. Same reason the over-rated Giants coming off 2 losses as ugly as they were, are still favored by 7.5 this week. Do the Giants currently look like their 7.5 over anyone? The Jets are getting the same treatment here Kim, line should probably be 4.5 - 5.5 but you have to factor in the NY angle.
Jetfanmack says:
11/27/10 05:09PM
Also, just because the Jets won three close games doesn't mean you can write them off as losses. The Jets also lost week one by 1 point, mostly because of a roughing the kicker penalty and a few somewhat questionable pass interference calls.
scalabrine says:
11/27/10 12:25AM

if everyone knows this, including you, you still have confidence @ NE getting only .5 more than a FG? Pats are a legit 9-2....Jets are not....
glyde69 says:
12/01/10 08:16PM

  Lots of good info in this thread.

 

glyde69 says:
12/01/10 08:17PM

glyde69 says:
12/01/10 08:21PM

Good points here.  A lot of people saw shutout not realizing that believe it or not, they played better than the Pack but gummed it up.  Sanchez did seem confused with the Pack 3-4 though.  Do the Jets play any other teams that run a 3-4 before the end of the year?  Could be a good fade spot.

Ap1Bfreetorun says:
11/27/10 08:15PM
I am not playing the game but would certainly buy the Patriots down to -2 1/2.  I will just watch the game and pull hard for the Patriots.  I hate the Jets, they are always touted for the Super Bowl by the East Coast media.  Like Dallas is touted in the Southwest. 
PrimeTimeBoys says:
11/27/10 12:21AM
The Saints got many last minute wins last season & they went on to win the super bowl. Good teams get lucky but the only thing that has me stumped is is how the Jets lost 0-9 at home against G Bay. I guess good teams have bad days also but not like that.

I had the Jets over the Bengals & one aspect of the Jets that bothered me in that game & previous games I have bet on them is the qb position (Sanchez). This guy looks as if hes throwing interceptions on purpose, like too obvious. He is a qb that I would not want on my team & with that said, I believe the Jets go into New England in 2 weeks & win SU.
kimoinsd808 says:
11/27/10 12:38AM


Yes.
kimoinsd808 says:
11/26/10 11:56PM


You are placing WAY too much value on that GB game.  You act as if the Jets were dominated.  The Jets beat the Packers in just about every offensive statistical category except the final score (rushing yards, passing yards, total yards, first downs, total offensive plays, time of possession, etc.).  There was a missed field goal that changed the complexion of the game and some questionable calls that went against the Jets killed drives.

You don't have to tell me why the public and national media love the Pats.  I'll take the Jets as dogs all day, they play tougher that way.
kimoinsd808 says:
11/27/10 12:06AM


Wins nonetheless.

It probably chaps the assess of Pats fans the world over that the Jets are winning these close games and have the same record as NE.
kimoinsd808 says:
11/27/10 12:08AM


Everyone knows this.
kimoinsd808 says:
11/27/10 12:56AM


Four easily dropped passes by Jet WR's including one to Santonio Holmes where he was wide open and could've easily scored a TD if he caught it and two INT's that should not have been.  Dustin Keller and Jerricho Cotchery went to the ground with balls in their possession and had them ripped out of their hands AFTER they were down.  Both times the Refs called them interceptions even though the ball should've gone to the offensive player on 50/50 balls like that.  The Jets were moving the ball easily both times and both TO's were momentum killers.  Like I told Killer_B, the Jets beat the Packers in every offensive statistical category except the final score.  Not very often that that happens.
kimoinsd808 says:
11/27/10 12:57AM


They aren't clicking on defense. 

kimoinsd808 says:
11/27/10 01:07AM


I'm actually surprised the Pats aren't laying more with their 25 game home winning streak, high-powered offense, HOF QB and Head Coach, championship pedigree etc., etc.  I was actually hoping to catch 6 or more.  Maybe all the Pat love headed to the window all next week will get me 4 by kickoff.
kimoinsd808 says:
12/01/10 10:42PM


Don't quote me, but i think Miami and Pitt run a 3-4 D.

BTW, you seem to be the only non-Jet fan who recalled the details of the Packer game besides the final score.


Gold_Rush says:
12/02/10 03:32AM

perhaps yes, perhaps no. I mean this is a pretty even game in terms of action, you have a hot jets team vs a hot pats team,. NE unbeaten at home,. jets unbeaten on the road. Both teams have the same record, its a big game, books want balanced action as you know so if this line were 3 I would not say its shady.

if the jets were favored by 3 i might think that.
nice write up and good luck for your pats. i think this is the best game of the year with the steelers ravens game right behind it
Gold_Rush says:
12/02/10 03:33AM

typical jets fan.. no class! Should we expect anything less
ndsent1 says:
11/27/10 02:12AM
Moo5 says:
11/27/10 10:40AM

First off, the team who wins this game does not automatically win the division or get the number #1 seed.  Yes, they will have the lead however each team has tough games left on their schedule.  Both teams have to go to Chicago.  Jets have to go to Pitt and Pats have Pack coming to town. along with both teams have the fish and bills left.

As for putting stock in games all season, we all know that is meaningless.  We can pick out games all throughout the season for each team. Pats got manhandled by the browns and did nothing in the 2nd half against the jets.  They also should have lost to an injury depleted colts team at home.  The Jets you can list browns, lions, pack etc...the difference between the Pats and Jets is the Pats score consistently where the Jets win ugly.  Last time I checked its not how you win, its if you win.  Its easy to fall in love with the team that wins pretty.  The reason Jets and Pats have bettter records then others is they find a way to win....good teams do that as well as bad teams find ways to win. 

Now to the game, Pats no Moss and Jets have Holmes both different then the first matchup.  Jets were a desperate team in the first game after the Ravens lost.  Game is in New England, where they have 25 game win streak.  Last home regular season loss?  Believe it was Jets and favre?  Lets not forget they got manhandled in the playoffs by the Ravens last year. Jets have had success on the road.

Jets will have to get pressure on Brady to win.  Patriots will have to score 28 plus pts to win.  It will come down to special teams, field position and turnovers. Both teams are suspect with their field goal kickers.  Both punters are solid.  Kick and Punt returner edge would have to be to the Jets.

It will be a close game and most likely a classic no matter what the result is.  I will be waiting to game time and will be taking the points.  I  believe the Jets play down or up to their opposition. Think they will rise to the occasion and keep it close.

Also, making a bold prediction whoever wins this game will not win the division.  Both teams will end up with at least 3 losses and it will come down to the tie breaker in the division.  Remember you heard it here first.

 

mischkin04 says:
11/27/10 04:18PM

 

    Does it really take 2 weeks worth of posts to discuss next months game?

                                  

Howard_Jughes says:
11/27/10 12:29PM

Patriots defense is horrible, giving up 300-400 passing yards per game, typically.

But all they need to do is make a few stops and get a turnover or two.

The Mexican and the fat man are gonna look really bad this game.

Pats 31 Jets 20

 

Howard_Jughes says:
12/01/10 10:01PM

badass thugs, lol.

 

Howard_Jughes says:
12/01/10 10:03PM

"Big Body Braylon"

NYJ4Life says:
12/01/10 08:04PM
RatherB your a fcking punk.. You and your boys are going to smacked up by the Jets on Monday. Brady is a punk and i would knock the shit out bellicheat if i ever met him in person. I cant wait till the Jets D smack welker at the line and shut down Branch and your overrated TE's. Eric Smith is going to knock out welker the first chance he gets with a nice Helmet to Helmet shot, Thats what we do were a bunch of badass thugs and and were coming for you on monday. Jets will roll on monday you have no Defense

All u patriot fans are clowns. Keep bashing the fat man and the mexican as you call them. Your offense scored 14 against us and Big Body Braylan did the dougie on ur shit ass defense.
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User: ratherBgambling
Joined: November 2006
Location: District of Columbia
Team: New England Patriots
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