Alright guys, I've got a discussion topic for the board. A lot of us have been doing this for a while and more specifically been hanging around this board for a while. I have been trying really hard to commit more time and effort to not just individual game picks but more so the process in which I go about handicapping these games. I think we would all agree that a variety of aspects going into capping games such as but not limited to the quality of teams, injury, weather, venue, the situation of the team (do they need a win/are they unmotivated), travel schedules, and lastly the good old "gut" feel. I suppose that is what I want to discuss. I have found myself time and time again in situations like tonight. I personally thought the Redskins were a great play tonight. I was an inch away from placing a fairly large wager on them. I had them available to me at +3 (-130), ML or alternative line which I believe was -3.5 (+190) or so. I had settled on +3 and literally just had to push confirm. I didn't push it. Many times before in this situation (live home dog in a divisional game is a spot I like) I have pulled the trigger without hesitation but not tonight. Tonight I hesitated. Some sort of internal bell went off in my head and said "I know you like this play but something isn't right" I laid off and played the under for $150 and lost. Sure I lost, however, I lost about 10% of what I was going to wager and truthfully it didn't have a huge impact on me. I saved myself from a big loss and and I am thrilled. In the past i have gotten burnt in spots like and won a fair share as well. But here is the million dollar question: How do we as handicappers take measures to minimize these land-mines going forward. Probably twenty guys who post quality picks and give good insight were on the Skins tonight and this was by all accounts the smart/sharp/informed side tonight but it was a total dud. So when is the obvious too good to be true and when is the obvious just something we shouldn't question and roll with? I understand that nothing is 100% but all I am looking to do is improve myself as a handicapper and add a dimension to my thought process. I am not someone who purely fades the public or purely bets the "obvious". I made my picks based on all the above stated criteria but I just never would have bet the Giants tonight. It just wouldn't have entered my thought process. So to you folks who had the Giants, can you please share some insight? What indicators did you see that made this play right for you? Please bear in mind that I put care into this thread and would appreciate that you don't write "the Skins suck" or "i just bet the better team". I am looking for some real ways to expand my thought process and do my best to see something next time that I missed this time.