redskinsnut's Blog

Posted Saturday, October 16, 2010 01:28 PM

NFL Sharps Report: Week 6

SAN DIEGO AT ST. LOUIS: Early support for San Diego, which is odd considering how badly they've played on the road. But, St. Louis hasn't run into a perennial playoff team yet this season, and they may be outmatched by Philip Rivers and the Chargers. An opener of 7.5 is up to 8.5. Note that we're in the basic strategy teaser window there. Sportsbooks may be less concerned about that here though given San Diego's inability to win on the road against opponents like Kansas City, Seattle, and Oakland. The total is up a point from 44 to 45. Biggest factor here is probably the St. Louis blowout loss in Detroit last week. The Rams are still way below the really good teams in Power Ratings.

KANSAS CITY AT HOUSTON: An opener of 3.5 moved up to 4.5 for Houston. Sharps didn't think the squares (public bettors) would come in on the dog regardless of the price...so they went ahead and bet early. I've told you often that sharps will hit +3.5 immediately if they like the dog because the key number of three is involved. If they like the favorite, and the public isn't going to bet the dog to give them any line breaks, they'll come in immediately there as well. Houston is in a bounce-back spot after a very badly played game. Kansas City is playing back-to-back on the road, and hasn't shown much offense all season. Not much interest yet on the total.

BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND: New England opened at -3 with a total of 46. The big move has been on the total, which has... [More]

Posted Sunday, December 06, 2009 08:07 AM

NFL sharps' report: Week 13

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Denver has moved up a tick from -4 to -4.5 because of their extra rest after a Thursday game and an impressive showing vs. the Giants. A lot of sharps made BIG money with the Broncos as a home dog on Thanksgiving. That was a syndicate play that had backing from many respected bettors. It's a different story here with a road favorite in a divisional game though. Not quite the same passion. The total has moved up a tick from 37.5 to 38.


OAKLAND AT PITTSBURGH: There was no line at press time in this game because of the status of Ben Roethlisberger. Sharps generally don't like taking big ugly dogs outside of their normal climate unless they're getting a lot of points. That could happen here...so we may see sharps take a flyer on the Raiders come kickoff. They'll be looking to take an Under if weather is going to be any sort of a factor.


HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE: Not much early action here because there some injury issues before press time. I can tell you this, sharps aren't in the mood to ask Houston to win a close game after what they've seen the last few weeks! Jacksonville looked awful as a dog at San Francisco last week, and is hard to respect as well. I don't expect much action here unless "somebody hears something" and it blows up into a syndicate play. Hard to trust either side at a short price based solely on handicapping factors.


TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Early respect here for the Titans, ... [More]

Posted Sunday, November 22, 2009 07:51 AM

NFL Sharps Report Week 11

CLEVELAND AT DETROIT: Moving to Sunday, the opener of Detroit by 4.5 has come down to 3.5. It's hard to believe that Cleveland's horrible play Monday Night inspired much betting! What's happening here is that nobody believes Detroit should be favored by that much over anybody. The Lions are still a very bad team. Many sharps believe these teams are equally helpless and want the points. They don't see the public coming in on Detroit on Sunday in non-marquee game like this that will hardly be televised anywhere. Might as well get the Browns early before other sharps step in and take the value away. The total has dropped from 39 to 38 because Cleveland has been playing Unders with a decent defense but no offense.

BUFFALO AT JACKSONVILLE: There was an early line move from Jacksonville -8 up to Jacksonville -9. I think that was a defensive move from sportsbooks though who didn't want to deal with teaser bets. If the line is -8, then everyone takes the Jaguars down to -2 in two-team teasers. With Buffalo changing coaches this week, that's a very appealing play for sharps. Maybe some money came in on the Jags when it was announced that Dick Jauron was fired. Sharps would much prefer Jacksonville -2 in teasers to Jacksonville -8 straight up though. Sportsbooks have gotten very cagey about dodging those basic strategy teasers when they don't like the situation. The total is up a half a point from 42 to 42.5, probably on the feeling that Buffalo's offense will score more w... [More]

Posted Sunday, November 15, 2009 07:54 AM

Sharps' Report Week 10

JACKSONVILLE AT NY JETS: Early support on the Jets, as the opener of -6 moved up to -7. Sharps have noticed that the public has been betting favorites off a bye this year. The Jets qualify in that category. Might as well get position early to set up a middle. Sharps who like the dog can come back at kick off at a line that might be higher than the TD. Or, they could stick with a Jets team that might really shut down an inconsistent visitor from out of climate. I think oddsmakers underestimated the position-taking for the rested favorite. The total is up a full point from 39 to 40. Weather was mild last week. If that changes, we may see this number go back down. Mark Sanchez doesn't look like he's ready to be a cold weather quarterback just yet.

DENVER AT WASHINGTON: Interesting move here, with an opener of Denver -4½ falling down to -3½. There wasn't enough passion to get the line all the way down to a field goal though. Normally sharps would wait before pulling the trigger on the dog figuring the public would drive the line higher. So, there was enough passion to do THAT, but not enough to get down to a field goal. Not sure what to make of that. Most of the guys I'm talking to are either passing the game, or looking to take the home dog with the good defense at the best price they can find on Sunday. The total has gone up from 36 to 37½. There seems to be an impression that Washington is going to keep opening things up because being conservative has bee... [More]

Posted Saturday, November 07, 2009 02:58 PM

Sharps Report Week 9

KANSAS CITY AT JACKSONVILLE: The line here opened at Jacksonville -7, and dropped fairly quickly to -6½. Jacksonville hasn't been playing very well this year (with a few exceptions). Sharps figured the public probably wasn't going to drive this line any higher than 7...so they might as well step in on the dog right away. Remember that the Jags went overtime on this field with lowly St. Louis...then lost badly to previously winless Tennessee last week. Kansas City is an ugly dog the sharps have no trouble backing because the favorite has been playing so poorly. Note though that they line didn't come down any more than a half point...so the bet is Kansas City +7 from sharps, not Kansas City +6½.


BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: This is one of those games that's going to sit right near the field goal. Everyone will bet Baltimore -2½ with extra juice, or Cincinnati +3 with extra juice. Different stores have one or the other of those prices for the most part. The sharps I've been talking to are impressed with Cincinnati this year, and are hoping the public hits revenge-minded Baltimore Sunday so their Bengal game day bets will have more value. Note that Baltimore was a very big syndicate play last Sunday morning at home against Denver. Easy winner in a 30-7 victory against a cheap line.


HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: We have another big move on the dog here, as Houston opened at +10 but dropped down to +8½. That's a bit of a surprise because sharps kn... [More]

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User: redskinsnut
Joined: October 2007
Location: Virginia
Team: Washington Redskins
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