NFL Sharps Report Week 11

CLEVELAND AT DETROIT: Moving to Sunday, the opener of Detroit by 4.5 has come down to 3.5. It's hard to believe that Cleveland's horrible play Monday Night inspired much betting! What's happening here is that nobody believes Detroit should be favored by that much over anybody. The Lions are still a very bad team. Many sharps believe these teams are equally helpless and want the points. They don't see the public coming in on Detroit on Sunday in non-marquee game like this that will hardly be televised anywhere. Might as well get the Browns early before other sharps step in and take the value away. The total has dropped from 39 to 38 because Cleveland has been playing Unders with a decent defense but no offense.

BUFFALO AT JACKSONVILLE: There was an early line move from Jacksonville -8 up to Jacksonville -9. I think that was a defensive move from sportsbooks though who didn't want to deal with teaser bets. If the line is -8, then everyone takes the Jaguars down to -2 in two-team teasers. With Buffalo changing coaches this week, that's a very appealing play for sharps. Maybe some money came in on the Jags when it was announced that Dick Jauron was fired. Sharps would much prefer Jacksonville -2 in teasers to Jacksonville -8 straight up though. Sportsbooks have gotten very cagey about dodging those basic strategy teasers when they don't like the situation. The total is up a half a point from 42 to 42.5, probably on the feeling that Buffalo's offense will score more w... [More]

Sharps' Report Week 10

JACKSONVILLE AT NY JETS: Early support on the Jets, as the opener of -6 moved up to -7. Sharps have noticed that the public has been betting favorites off a bye this year. The Jets qualify in that category. Might as well get position early to set up a middle. Sharps who like the dog can come back at kick off at a line that might be higher than the TD. Or, they could stick with a Jets team that might really shut down an inconsistent visitor from out of climate. I think oddsmakers underestimated the position-taking for the rested favorite. The total is up a full point from 39 to 40. Weather was mild last week. If that changes, we may see this number go back down. Mark Sanchez doesn't look like he's ready to be a cold weather quarterback just yet.

DENVER AT WASHINGTON: Interesting move here, with an opener of Denver -4½ falling down to -3½. There wasn't enough passion to get the line all the way down to a field goal though. Normally sharps would wait before pulling the trigger on the dog figuring the public would drive the line higher. So, there was enough passion to do THAT, but not enough to get down to a field goal. Not sure what to make of that. Most of the guys I'm talking to are either passing the game, or looking to take the home dog with the good defense at the best price they can find on Sunday. The total has gone up from 36 to 37½. There seems to be an impression that Washington is going to keep opening things up because being conservative has bee... [More]

Sharps Report Week 9

KANSAS CITY AT JACKSONVILLE: The line here opened at Jacksonville -7, and dropped fairly quickly to -6½. Jacksonville hasn't been playing very well this year (with a few exceptions). Sharps figured the public probably wasn't going to drive this line any higher than 7...so they might as well step in on the dog right away. Remember that the Jags went overtime on this field with lowly St. Louis...then lost badly to previously winless Tennessee last week. Kansas City is an ugly dog the sharps have no trouble backing because the favorite has been playing so poorly. Note though that they line didn't come down any more than a half point...so the bet is Kansas City +7 from sharps, not Kansas City +6½.

BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI: This is one of those games that's going to sit right near the field goal. Everyone will bet Baltimore -2½ with extra juice, or Cincinnati +3 with extra juice. Different stores have one or the other of those prices for the most part. The sharps I've been talking to are impressed with Cincinnati this year, and are hoping the public hits revenge-minded Baltimore Sunday so their Bengal game day bets will have more value. Note that Baltimore was a very big syndicate play last Sunday morning at home against Denver. Easy winner in a 30-7 victory against a cheap line.

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: We have another big move on the dog here, as Houston opened at +10 but dropped down to +8½. That's a bit of a surprise because sharps kn... [More]