DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: Denver has moved up a tick from -4 to -4.5 because of their extra rest after a Thursday game and an impressive showing vs. the Giants. A lot of sharps made BIG money with the Broncos as a home dog on Thanksgiving. That was a syndicate play that had backing from many respected bettors. It's a different story here with a road favorite in a divisional game though. Not quite the same passion. The total has moved up a tick from 37.5 to 38.
OAKLAND AT PITTSBURGH: There was no line at press time in this game because of the status of Ben Roethlisberger. Sharps generally don't like taking big ugly dogs outside of their normal climate unless they're getting a lot of points. That could happen here...so we may see sharps take a flyer on the Raiders come kickoff. They'll be looking to take an Under if weather is going to be any sort of a factor.
HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE: Not much early action here because there some injury issues before press time. I can tell you this, sharps aren't in the mood to ask Houston to win a close game after what they've seen the last few weeks! Jacksonville looked awful as a dog at San Francisco last week, and is hard to respect as well. I don't expect much action here unless "somebody hears something" and it blows up into a syndicate play. Hard to trust either side at a short price based solely on handicapping factors.
TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Early respect here for the Titans, who opened at +7.5 but are now only getting +6.5 or +7 in most places as we go to press in the middle of the week. Sharps are impressed with how Vince Young lit a fire under the team...are of the opinion that the Colts are going to lose to somebody impressively and it might come after a wild three-week stretch for them...and you also have the teaser window involved at the opener. The LAST thing sportsbooks wanted was to give the whole world a chance to take Indy -1.5 in two-team teasers. All of that drove the line down. If the public hits Indy back up over the weekend, sharps will bet Indy in teasers, but Tennessee plus the points.
PHILADELPHIA AT ATLANTA: A lot of support for Philadelphia early on because of the Atlanta quarterback situation. The Eagles opened as a 3-point favorite but are now up to -5.5. That tells you how bad Atlanta looked on the TV screens most of the day in their close win over Tampa Bay. Philly hasn't exactly looked great lately. But, they do match up well with the Falcons in the minds of sharp betters. Should the line go to -6, you'll see some buy back from guys shooting middles. The total has dropped a tick from 44.5 to 44.
DETROIT AT CINCINNATI: Early support for Detroit at +13, as we saw a drop to +12.5 fairly quickly. Cincinnati didn't cover against Oakland or Cleveland in their last two games, two other horrible opponents like Detroit. Also, the Lions have a few extra days of preparation after playing on Thanksgiving. And, weather could be an issue in a December start. Cincy's offense didn't exactly explode last week in a late November game against Cleveland. Some old school sharps like taking all double digit dogs anyway because of longterm history. The Lions, as bad as they are, will be a popular team with sharps this week.
NEW ORLEANS AT WASHINGTON: Not much action in this one yet, with New Orleans sitting at 9.5 right now. Sharps want to go against the Saints in a letdown spot, particularly on the road against a team with a good defense. They'd prefer +10 to +9.5 though because that's a key number. So, they'll wait to see if the public jumps on the hot Saints. If the public is hesitant, you may see some "head fake" money on the Saints from sharps drive the line to 10 just so they can come back over the top on the Redskins. I expect sharps to be pretty strong on the Skins. They just haven't had a reason to act yet. The total has dropped a tick from 48 down to 47.5. That right there suggests support for Washington because Saints backers would be betting on the Over because of that great offense.
TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA: Big
drop on the total here from 43.5 down to 40. That's an indictment of
both quarterbacks really, and some respect for the defenses. It's rare
to see totals moves this big this late in the season. You'd have to
call that a pretty big miss for oddsmakers. Not much interest on the
team side. This is the kind of game where sharps take the underdog,
just because Carolina is playing so inconsistently that it's hard to
trust them as a favorite vs. anybody. Sharps will wait to see if they
get more points by kickoff. The totals guys sure didn't wait though.
ST. LOUIS AT CHICAGO: Another
game that's sitting in the 9.5 to 10 range...with sharps very likely to
take the dog at +10 when they see it. Oddsmakers know this, and
wouldn't mind if the game gets left alone at 9.5! The public may not be
interested in laying points with the Bears given how poorly they've
been playing lately. Kind of a cat-and-mouse game around a critical
number right now. The totals guys will step in on the Under if there's
any kind of weather issue.
SAN DIEGO AT CLEVELAND: There
was a big surge on San Diego -11.5 on the opener. I'm seeing -13
now...with the potential for higher. It's VERY odd to see sharps
betting on a warm weather team at that kind of spread when visiting a
cold weather site. I do believe some of this was position taking hoping
to set up a middle. Sharps figure the squares will love betting on a
red hot San Diego team against the horrible Browns. If the line makes
it to -14, we'll see some buy back on the dog. If not, sharps will
apparently be happy with their early bets given how bad the Browns are.
They lost by more than this spread in their last home game against
Baltimore. San Diego's playing better than Baltimore lately. A bad
weather forecast may change their minds. Tough to lay big spreads in
iffy weather.
SAN FRANCISCO AT SEATTLE: Here
we have another relatively dead game with a short spread where it's
hard to have confidence in either side. I don't expect this to be a
heavily bet game from sharps or squares unless big news breaks between
now and kickoff about a key player. If we see a line in the 1.5 to 2.5
range though, the dog will be bet by sharps in two-team teasers. Keep
that in mind.
MINNESOTA AT ARIZONA: There's
no line at press time because the status of Kurt Warner isn't certain.
Note that this is a time-change game that's been moved to Sunday Night
because of the flex scheduling from NBC. Vegas WILL have a line on the
game because they want square action on the TV games! You saw that last
Sunday when Roethlisberger was scratched. Personally, I'm hoping Warner
can play because seeing him vs. Brett Favre would be a lot of fun.
Sportsbooks will be hopping either way with a bunch of Favre fans, and
a bunch of Favre haters.
DALLAS AT NY GIANTS: This
one could get interesting. We're seeing numbers now in the Dallas by
1-2 range depending on where you look. Sharps would love to take the
Giants at +1.5 to +2.5 up to +7.5 to +8.5 in a home underdog divisional
rivalry teaser. Oddsmakers know this, and want to discourage it. That
could mean a line of Dallas -1. Squares know Dallas is winning, has
extra rest, and is facing a slumping Giants team led by a hobbled
quarterback. Pick your poison! Oddsmakers will either get flooded with
square money on Dallas -1, or sharp money on NYG teasers. Should Dallas
be laying a field goal, that would bring in sharp money on the home
dog. Awkward spot for the sportsbooks. Look for Under betters to get
involved if there's a forecast for strong wind or any sort of weather
issues.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI: Remember
this has been time-changed to an afternoon start. New England was hit
at the opener by sharps driving a line of -4.5 up to -6. I think that's
early position taking on the assumption that the public will pound New
England in the bounce-back spot. New England bounced back well from
that loss at Indy with a big home win over the Jets. Same situation
here. Except...it's a road game for New England instead. That has the
sharps' attention because New England hasn't won a road game yet this
year (the win vs. Tampa Bay was a neutral site game over in London). As
we saw in San Diego/Cleveland...sharps are hoping to buy back on a live
dog with a good middle, but will live with their favorite bets at low
numbers if the opportunity for a middle at a key number doesn't present
itself.
BALTIMORE AT GREEN BAY: Big
Monday Night game here, with both teams fighting for Wildcard spots in
their respective conferences. Green Bay opened at -3, and it's going to
take a lot of money to move off the field goal because either team
would be extremely popular with a half point in their favor. Squares
would pound Green Bay -2.5, and sharps would pound Baltimore +3.5 The
total has come down from 44.5 to 43.5, and may come down more if
weather is going to be a factor. We're talking about a December night
game in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Weather could be a BIG deal.