Green Bay -9 (money)
There are a few reasons why I like this play; none more pertinent than Aaron Rogers 102 passer rating, his 19 TD’s with only 5 int’s. Culpepper is on the bench for a reason; he was a star tossing to Randy Moss, and never did anything since. The real vulnerability for GB it their secondary, which just got a lot worse when they lost Al Harris for the season; though I think their defensive line will dominate the Lions O line and not give Culpepper enough time to get it down field, but he will try to force it. Culpepper is going to be rushed, and sacked all day long. He is as susceptible to injury as he is suseptable to ‘forcing’ the marginal throws, and his getting ‘bounced out’-hurt- of this one is not all too improbable. GB’s O line can consider this game as a break… Detroit is not all too good getting to the QB (24th in nfl); which has been GB’s only issue on offense. Rogers aerial attack should be his best this season. GB have 11 plays over 40 yards this season (3rd in nfl). Lastly, Detroit averages giving up 30 pts per games this year with the dead last in passing yards surrendered (2,753), and GB averaged scoring 26 pts per game with the 7th most yards passing in the nfl (2,549)…. Rogers should have atleast 450 yrd passing in this one, and should put up 38 points.
I like the over 48.5 (but not enough to play it, Detroit (Culpepper) could end below 10):
GB should/could put up 38, but can the Lions score 10+? I think so, as long as Culpepper is in the whole game. He has nothing to lose, and his career is nearly over, he will ‘sling it’ and take chances, and against GB’s depleted secondary, he should be good for 2 td’s and a field goal.
GB 38 Detroit 17 (Detroit could let me down on their side, but this is where I see it)