runlines's Blog

Runline discussion thread - Sunday 16 Aug 09

By runlines | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, August 16, 2009 01:17 AM   8 comments
Good day again yesterday guys -- the Cards covered, as did the Cubs, Angels, Rays, and Rangers -- the lattermost as pretty big underdogs.

The "system" (which we don't support or oppose, but which I know interests some) is now 12-4, and + 8.9 units on a one-unit-per-day application.

On to Sunday....

8 comments
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pfly1987 says:
08/16/09 01:29AM
What's the Systema??
pfly1987 says:
08/16/09 01:29AM
Come on---Let a plaaya know!!
allamay1608 says:
08/16/09 01:37AM
nice
andy88c says:
08/16/09 02:11AM
I assume the system he is referring to is an RL play on the largest juiced ML.

I run a chase system with the same idea.

Watch out for Chicago tomorrow. Ohlendorf is terrible on the road, but Harden is terrible during day games. Lou has even said that this is an issue and they have tried to slot him so he pitches at night. Normally this may be a insignificant statistic, but in Harden's case, it's becoming a trend and problem.

Harden Day 2009: 48.2 IP, 6.66 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, .270 BAA
Harden Night 2009: 62.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .204 BAA

Harden Day Career: 294.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .226 BAA
Harden Night Career: 429 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .214 BAA

The career numbers show that he walks a high # of guys during the day...142 in day games over his career in comparison to 167 in night games. This is significant because  he's also pitched 130+ more innings at night.

The Pirates are terrible and I really think the Cubs sweep, but just watch out.

Don't like Detroit. Galarraga is sick and may not even start. Davies has actually pitched quite well on the road over his career. Not sure why.

Slight lean to Chicago, despite the caveat, but I think Tampa and NYY are the best plays tomorrow.

Ace on the mound for Garza, who is a home warrior. Team is going to want to get back in the thick of things after winning today...get the ball rolling. Zip isn't bad, but Tampa hits lefties and he's got spotty command for a kid who has to hit spots to miss bats.

Looking at his Minor League numbers here, this Fister kid is nothing special (also unranked in the Mariners' organization by BA and MILB) and is not the guy the M's want out there to stop the sweep. He's a groundball pitcher who throws froma  6'8" downward angle, but I really don't see how the Yanks don't exploit this. Joba is inconsistent, but the Yanks should finally have an offensive breakout in Seattle tomorrow against the kid.
runlines says:
08/16/09 04:48AM
The "system" play today would be the Cubs, but I agree with Homer, that's not necessarily the most attractive one on the board... 

I think Tampa looks better as a runline play.  And maybe the White Sox.  I'm not in love with the Yankees that much either -- they're due to lose one, and Joba's regressed.


sports_Network says:
08/16/09 05:55AM

I coincide with your insight, good info attached, Yankee bats will be to much for the youngster, NY middle relief has held patt the last 8 games..  NYY RL / TAM RL  get the strongest RL leans on Sundays Card..On the opposite; TOR ML 35% / SEA ML 22% both carry 'value' as dog plays/capable, but not probable...

SN 

runlines says:
08/16/09 07:36AM


One thing I like about Fister -- about 12 walks in more than 100 innings pitched at Tacoma.  He certainly can throw strikes if he wants to.   That plus the feeling that the Yankees have a sort of Laker mentality -- that they're due to "take a day off" -- has me off the NYY.  Not going to bet Seattle...  just looking for a better matchup at a price more fitted to what I see as the real risk.


andy88c says:
08/16/09 02:08PM
Yeah, I agree with that statement runlines. I bet Tampa already so we'll see how that goes.

LAD is an interesting road runline pick. Arizona can't hit anybody and Petit had two back to back no ER outings, but he isn't this good. Plus LAD has seen him a good amount over his young career and should be able to hit him.
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