schiman's Blog

Posted Sunday, January 27, 2013 04:37 PM

2H system chase plays for NBA

VF:  Visiting Favorite
VD: Visiting Dog
HF: Home Favorite
HD: Home Dog
2HL:  2nd Half Line
1HT: 1st Half Total
GT: Game Total
QD: Qtr Score Diff: 2Q score – 1Q Score
D2HL:  2HL – 1HT:  Diff in 2nd Half Line vs 1st Half Total
DGTL: GT/2 – 1HT: Diff in ½ the game total vs 1st Half Total
p: play

The Chaseable indicator is for the whole category (VF, HD, etc...)

Leading at half:             Rules                                           Play
VF :                        D2HL <= -1 & -3< QD <=3                : Over
       15p/67%  Not Chaseable (too erratic)      

HD:                         D2HL b/w -4 & 5    and  DGTL > -6   : Under  
       29p/62% Chaseable

HD:          &... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 25, 2012 04:47 PM

2H system plays for NCAAF 2nd half yr

My 2H system plays:
a) Play 2H Under when a home team is covering the spread by more than 100%
b) Play 2H Over when a home fav is covering by more than 19pts
c) Play 2H Fav when Game's Away Fav is winning or losing ATS by > 19pts.

I've found these scenarios come in fairly well in the 2nd half of the season up to the bowls.

 However, also found that ALL 2H system plays are trendy. i.e.  There may be 2-4 big weeks and the others are b/w 40-60% outcome. 

Lastly, because the trends above are usually > 60% winners, I will chase losers.  ie.  Noon games profit < 50%, 3:30pm bets double... Same for 7pm games (quadruple if 12 & 3:30 games lose, double if just 3:30 games lose)



User: schiman
Joined: December 2010
Location: North Carolina

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