6 Team ACTION!!!

So we had a long day at work in the rain and decided to cap out a few games.  A few people pointed some games out then things got creative.

We call it the "I saw the odds on Pineda and it made my Dick Harden so then I ran into a girl and then I tried to Fister but then I ended up beating my Wang while riding the D-Train on my way to the Beachy.

That's degenerate for a Seattle-Oakland-Detroit-Cubs-Cincinnati-Atlanta  6 team parlay.  Which is English for problem gambler.

$5 to win 337.18 though.  Sign me up.

Mavs-Heat is like Drago-Creed

So this morning I went for a run.  On my Ipod I happen to have every song that ever appeared in  Rocky movie, because I'm "that guy".  The song "Living in America" by  James Brown came up and it immediately reminds me of the scene in Rocky 4 when Apollo Creed enters the ring before his bout with Drago.  He is flamboyant, cocky, and things this whole thing is gonna be a breeze.  Then I started thinking, that's basically the same way the Heat were at that Arrival Party in Miami.

Then I really got to doing something thinking these two events compare.  Let's cast the key characters of the series and movie real quickly.  Now the one difference will be the protagonist and antagonist will be reversed.  There are some other slight modifications but bear with me.

Drago- Dirk
Drago's Trainer- Carlise
Russian Diplomat- Mark Cuban
Creed- The Miami Heat
Rocky- LeBron
Creed's Trainer- Spoelstra
Adrian Balboa-  Chris Bosh (Kinda annoying, really has nothing to with anything, but still comments and people still pay attention)

So let's get to the fight.  While Heat are busy with their Living in America spectacle, Dirk is waiting in the ring cold and silent.  The fight starts out much like Game 1 and 2, with Creed dancing around and slipping shot in here and there against Drago.  Kinda like how Miami for a little had control of everything.  But what's really happening is Drago and his ... [More]

Fade the Big East

I think there is a good chance to net a profit in fading all the Big East teams ATS on the opening weekend.  There are 11 teams from the conference in this tournament.  Yet I have been seeing the posted total for the Big East total wins at about 15.5 with over being at about -140.

With 11 teams in, and all the hype surrounding it, I think this is the books way of telling us they don't value the Big East.  This is especially alarming since in 9 out of the 11 First Round games the Big East is the higher seeded team.  There are even some circumstances where Big East teams can meet in the 2nd round and guarantee another win for the total....and yet that number is still 15.5. 

I think a smart play for the first round would be to take the Big East opponent in all 11 First Round games.  With straight bets across the board on a standard -110 vig, 6 wins would net a 4.5% profit.
7 wins would net a 23.6% profit, 8 would be 42.7%.

I feel almost certain I can get 6 covers, pretty confident I will get 7, and hoping to score big and hit 8 or more.

NBA Coach of the Year- most pointless award in Sports

I'm just saying this because the past 3 winners are Byron Scott, Mike Brown, and Scott Brooks.  Scott had the runner-up (and arguably the real) MVP, Brown had the MVP, Brooks had the runner up.  Fast forward to present day and Scott is gone, Brown might as well be, and for some reason I have a feeling when this Oklahoma City team really makes a run at things Brooks will not be there.

It seems more time than not, the Coach of the Year can be closely linked to the MVP, but not so much towards the title.  I mean here we have in the early 90's MJ winning (or derserving to win) every MVP, but Phil Jackson only getting coach of the year once.  Same can be said about Pop in San Antonio.

Aside from Hubie Brown in Memphis during the 03-04 season I can't really think of many times a coach has really made a team better than it actually was, which is what coaches are supposed to do.

I

Week 11 Plays By Scho

The second I saw Troy Polamalu go down last week, I knew I was losing the Pittsburgh game.  I can't begin to emphasize how big of an effect he has on a game.  In hindsight though, I should have realized no matter what Cincy is way to be good to be getting 7 from anyone in this league.  I have a feeling this is going to be a crazy week for betting with all these higher spreads and home underdogs.  On with the picks.

Jacksonville -8.5
I live very close to Buffalo, so I know this team very well.  I even used to consider myself a fan (the firing of Jauron might spark some interest, and a complete front office overhaul).  That being said, the Bills defense is absolutely gutted with injuries.  Two backups will be starting at DT, which also means lack of depth at an important position.  The Bills even have DB's playing OLB these days, and even the secondary has its own wave of injuries.  Can MJD break 200 rushing yards in this game?

Green Bay -6.5
The battle of the 2005 NFL Draft!  I think Aaron Rodgers will be able to handle this highly touted matchup.  I'm not sure how many of you have enough self-hatred to have actually watched the 49ers game last week, but I did.  It does not bode well for a team when they get 6 turnovers, have allowed 6 points, and STILL have to hold the opponent at the goal line.  Aaron Rodgers does not throw INT's like Cutler, so the 49ers better bring some offense.  Not... [More]

Week 10 Plays by Scho

Had my best week of betting in a while last week.  Was perfect on my posted picks and hit an array of parlays.  Been feeling it the past 2 weeks, and I think I have this league figured out a little bit.  With that said this will prob be the week I go up in flames, but I'm gonna enjoy riding this hot hand.  On with the picks.

Pittsburgh -7
REVENGE GAME! REVENGE GAME! REVENGE GAME!  Cincinnati took one at the end from Pittsburgh last time, Big Ben threw a pick 6, and the Bengals drove the field at the end for the go ahead score.  Tough to imagine them being able to accomplish such a feat with Troy Polamalu roaming around out there.  Fact of the matter is Pittsburgh is playing Steeler football now.  I still think the Bengals are a very good team but I'm not sure if they will be able to handle this one.  This game is basically for the division, and is in Pittsburgh where the terrible towel will be waving in full force against this hated rival.  After a game of this magnitude you will understand why the Steelers wear the rings.

Carolina +1.5
I'm surprised people have not been bringing up how the home team always wins in the NFC south.  DeAngelo Williams is back to his form from years ago, and ever since Carolina realized when Delhomme throws less than 15 times in a game they actually have a chance.  The Falcons offense has just not looked so hot to me this season.  If Turner isn't going Matty Ice ... [More]

Week 9 Plays By Scho

Had a pretty solid outing last week for my plays.  Bet against Favre out of hatred, which is never a wise reason to make a bet.  I did later get down on the Falcons +11.5, but also took the under.  Thought for sure that would be the game Monday Night actually went under, really think it will be this week though.  Here are my Week 9 Picks.

Cincinnati +3
This line makes absolutely no sense to me.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Bengals go into Baltimore and compete in a hard fought game (which they were covering most of the way) and then pull away for the win in the end.  No idea how Cincy flies so far under the radar when they have such a balanced offense, and solid D.  The Ravens secondary to me still has some problems, because there corners are not good at covering down field.  If Benson gets going early, it will nullify Ed Reed, and the Bengals should be able to get a few chances with man coverage down field.  Bengals are coming off a bye, and with wins the next two weeks put themselves in the drivers seat for the division.

Miami +11
In an intense divisional battle like this one, I will take double-digits more times than not. I'm not sure what the Dolphins have to do to get some respect in this league, but they are a legitimate team.  As long as they don't have to throw the ball.  The ground game is very solid, and I'm not sold on this Pats run D.  I'm not totally convinced this Pats of... [More]

Gambling Pet Peeves

I have just come across my biggest pet peeve in gambling.  I actually do a descent amount of work in preparing my picks, whereas I have friends who just listen to whatever is on ESPN. 

Yesterday I got a call from 3 friends asking him if I liked New Orleans -11.  I said either take Atlanta or don't play because it was way to many points to give.  Immediately I start hearing "Dude Saints are going to romp, are you crazy!"  Something along these lines happened each of the 3 calls.

Pet Peeve 1:  Why would you ask me if you were just going to disagree anyways?

I eventually just end the conversation with well I'm going to try and double up what I won on sunday (3-1 on my posted picks for the record) on Atlanta.  This prompted them to follow my lead and ask me to put in the bets, and by the time I got the bets in it was Atlanta +11.5. 

I'm getting texts in the 2nd quarter while the game is tied telling me it looks like the Saints are going to pull away with it soon, I know it.

Pet Peeve 2:  Expecting the worst to happen. 

Drives me absolutely insane when someone has to point out everything that can possibly go wrong, or is currently going wrong.  Sit back and watch the game, especially in a tie game when your +11.5.

Sure enough as I'm telling people to calm the fuck down at 21-14, Matt Ryan throws a pick 6, 28-14.  Phone is blowing up again, telling me were fucked, and the... [More]

Week 8 Plays by Scho

Another split ticket in the biggest money making week for bettors ever.  I was sketched out by some of the spreads being too good to be true, but they were actually just too good.  However with each week, we all get a little wiser.  With that said here are the Week 8 Picks.

Philly -1
I came to the conclusion the this last week, that these teams are really not as good as perceived.  The Giants sorely miss Plaxico Burress, and if you look back at the games they have not been the same team offensively without him.  The Cardinals were able to win the battle up front against the G-Men, and I don't consider the Cardinals unit as good as the Eagles.  The Eagles are not so great themselves, as it seems they live and die by the big play.  I think they will be able to get a few big passing plays against a depleted Giants secondary.  Defensively look for them to blitz Eli early and often too force some turnovers and make the Giants play from behind, which I'm not convinced they can do.

Miami +3.5
Last game these guys played the Dolphins were able to impose their will on the Jets, and they have not been the same team since that game.  The hot dog thing has been good for Mark Sanchez since they are showing that shot of him on the sidelines, and not him looking very uncomfortable and on the verge of tears in the Bills game.  Braylon Edwards also seems to have gotten back to his usual disappointing form, who was a big fac... [More]

Are You Sure Giants are THAT Good?

Don't get me wrong, I think the Giants are a solid football team, but ever sense there Super Bowl run they have been considered elite.  Since Harris Smith...I mean Plaxico Burress went down last year have they really played an impressive game?  The win over the Cowboys was good, but 4 picks and you by 2 at the end of the game?  I'm not so sure this Giants team is as great as its cracked out to be.  Great lines, but there secondary is average, their backs are underperforming, and the receivers are over achieving against some marginal opponents.  That't my opinion anyways......

Week 7 Picks By Scho

Split the ticket last week, and learned a few things.  One of them is that I can never allow myself to back Jay Cutler ever again.  For some reason when he drops back I fear the worst rather than expect the best.  From now on if I feel his team has the edge I will just  no play, but will look to bet against him when I can.  He is too careless with the ball and when he overthrows someone the ball is always begging to be picked off.  Also I don't think that Denver win was evidence Denver is as great as there made out, but rather an indictment of how bad San Diego is.  How in gods name do you allow two returns without laying a hand on someone. Onto the picks for the week.

Green Bay -9
I am usually not a fan of laying more than TD on the road, but this game is an exception.  I don't think this Cleveland offense is capable of putting up more than 10 points.  For them to top that they usually need a defensive score, a Cribbs return, or points in garbage time.  Throw in the fact swine flu is running through the Cleveland team and they may be forced to play with guys on the practice squad and you have a recipe for disaster.  The Browns will be down at least a starting corner, which does not bode well against this Packers passing attack.

Carolina -7
This game sums up how sketchy this week is to me. I'm willing to back Jake Delhomme.  Of course I feel if this pick hits it will be in spite of him, not becaus... [More]

Week 7 Lines

I usually draw up my own spreads before I look at the opening line, and generally I am within a point or so either way on them.  I was off by quite a few points on numerous games this week.   I feel like how good easy this picking the games have been the first few weeks.  Every double digit favorite seemed to be covering until last week, and now not so much.  This weeks spreads are just completely fucked.  The Colts might the best team in football, and St. Louis might the worst and this game opened at Colts -11.5 coming off a bye week, while St. Louis loses there best WR.  Does Vegas think Steven Jackson is going to run for 300+ and 5 TD's or something.  That's only the first one I'm worried about.  I will just say I'm taking mostly a back seat this week cause none of the lines make sense.

DENVER- ESPN FLAVOR OF THE WEEK

Everyone who is talking up Denver I just want to know, have you actually watched these games play for play on your own, or have you just watched the same clips on ESPN over and over again? 

Yes, the Broncos D did play well against the Patriots last week down the stretch, however I'm not sure if we that means as much this year as it did before.  The Pats were shut down by the Bills for most of their game, shut down by the Jets, played okay against the artists formerly known at the Ravens D, and were not explosive against the Falcons.

Most of the numbers that people are drooling over were the ones generated against the Browns, Raiders, and Cowboys.  Those 3 games have accounted for 8 turnovers, and those QB's aren't known for being very cautious with the ball. 

At the same time their offense is still just an average offense in my eyes.  Watching their games it seems they scored a lot on short fields caused by turnovers.  Well most of these turnovers came against the aforementioned. 

I respect the fact they did drive down the field twice against the Pats with the game on the line.  But this is also the same Pats D that made Trent Edwards look like he belongs starting in the NFL  in week 1. 

I might be wrong, but I have not seen the visual evidence of this team that suggests they are really that great.

Week 6 picks by Scho

I took a week off, which no lie turned out to be a good week for me.  Not lying, just have better things to do like work, go to school, and having a life.  Well its a slow week again, so posting some more picks.  I always enjoy this cause if someone rips my pick apart and actually has a well thought out argument I learn something.  The ones who contribute terrible arguments against solidify my points and make me feel good. Here is the week 6 picks though.

Baltimore+3
I'm obviously a Favre hater, but I still don't see why this team is considered better than Baltimore.  Minnesota strikes me as the college football team that plays a bad schedule and looks good because of it.   Given the records of the AFC North opponents, this game is an absolute must for the Ravens.  The Ravens have the weapons out of the backfield to neutralize the aggressive defensive line of the Vikings.  Also add the fact Baltimore can handle AP, and won't have to overly commit to the run, the Vikings will have a hard time throwing against this defense.  I think Favre will be on his back a few times this game, and Ed Reed will make a play that turns the game.

New Orleans -3
Has anyone else noticed that New Orleans can run the ball and play stellar defense this year?  The Saints actually have a legitimate defense this year,  and they blitz very well, which I think will cause Eli Manning some problems.  The Saints will probab... [More]

QB's Better Than Favre

I will start this off by saying I was very impressed with Brett Favre last night.  That may have been one of the better performances of his career, all things considered.  Of course the Favre dick sucking by ESPN and others has gotten to the absolute ridiciulous point that you think that Favre is still the best QB in the game today.  I'm not even willing to consider him the best all-time QB playing today, I beleive Peyton Manning holds that honor.  That being said I thought it would be fun to go through all of the starting QB's in the league today and see who the better QB TODAY is.  Going by division:

AFC EAST
Tom Brady-  Better than Favre.  No explanation needed.

Mark Sanchez- I'll take Favre, but will be curious to what the reaction would be if Sanchez took the same Jets offense minus Coles to the playoffs.

Trent Edwards- Take Favre.

Ronnie Brown- Take Favre over whoever or whatever takes snaps for Miami.

AFC NORTH
Ben Roethlisberger-  Take him today over Favre.  Last I checked winning Super Bowls was a big deak.

Joe Flacco- I'll take Favre here, but not might much.  Flacco might really be something special.

Carson Palmer-  I'll consider this one a PUSH.

Brady Andersen-  Ill take Favre.

AFC SOUTH
Peyton Manning- No questions, Manning.

David Garrard- Ill take Favre.

Matt Schaub- Ill take Favre.

Kerry Collins-  Ill take... [More]

Week 4 Picks By Scho

Went 2-2 last week on my posted plays.  Did end up loading up on San Diego -6 and Indy +2 at last minute, but that was more of a degenerate impulse than really liking the picks.  Now for this weeks picks that I like.

Chicago -10
I'm happy for Detroit that they finally ended their losing streak, but they will be sure to continue their losing ways when they travel to Chicago this week.  Despite leading his team from behind in the past 2 games, Jay Cutler has still not had his huge breakout performance for the Bears yet.  What better way to get the fans off your back than lighting the score board up against the Lions weak pass defense.  Same for Matt Forte, as the Lions should prove to be like the fat chick at the end of the bar, nothing more than a slump buster.   Kevin Smith is banged up so it will be tough for the Lions to stay in this game early.  I'll take my chances against Matthew Stafford on the road.  This game also takes on added significance for the Bears who are already 0-1 in the division, need to keep stride with the Packers and Vikings facing off this week. 

New Orleans -7
When I first saw this line I thought it was WAY to high.  Then I really started thinking and realized I almost found myself on this Jets bandwagon that seems to growing exponentially by the week.  Don't get me wrong, I have been impressed with what they have done, but at the end of the day its still the Jets.  ... [More]

Worst Person To Wager Against

After cashing in last week on Colts -3.5 I have finally come to the conclusion that there is not a worse athlete in sports to bet money against than Peyton Manning.  Anytime you wager against the Colts whenever the Colts offense takes the field you literally cringe the moment you see him yelling out calls at the line.  His performance the other night was borderline sickening, as the Colts scored 1 out of every 7 plays.  The Colts possessed the ball for 15 minutes and he still threw for 300 yards and put 27 points up on the board.  He can pull a TD drive out of his backside on at any point.  Like anyone else he will have his 1 off game a year, but I now have reached the point where I will only bet for the Colts and if I don't like them in particular game, I will just stay away.  Peyton Manning is the world person to wager money against in sports, and Kobe Bryant being 2nd in my opinion.  Thoughts?

Week 3 Picks by Scho

I haven't posted picks with a write-ups since last year during the NFL playoffs.  I miss making picks and have people rip them apart, its a good for of constructive criticism.  So far this season I have been doing well, so hopefully this continues and I can share my wisdom with others.  Now for the Week 3 NFL Picks. 

San Fran -7
The 49ers have been my sweetheart team of this young season.  This has been the 3rd year in a row I have had them marked as a sleeper team.  The difference is this year they have the right man lighting the fire in Coach Mike Singeltary.  Frank Gore has shown signs of resurgence as a dominant back.  For the reputation of such a stout rush defense, the Vikings have not looked quite at dominant this season.  The Vikings are a highly hyped on team, and keep in mind have been trailing at halftime to both the Browns and Lions.  These teams both do there best to find ways to lose, but this 49ers team is not an easy out.  MLB Patrick Willis is one of the best in the business, and should be relentless in his pursuit of Adrian Peterson.  Until Brett Favre shows he is still capable of taking a game over, rather than manage it, I can't trust myself to back him against a team I believe to be legitimate.  I'll take the 49ers getting 7, and would not be surprised if they won outright.

Houston -3.5
This Jaguars team might be one of the worst teams in the NFL, and would not be surpri... [More]

T.O. is the NFL's version of a attractive woman with warts

Conference Championship Game Picks

Aside from the Carolina-Cardinals game last week I was pretty much spot on last week.  I honestly don't regret that pick though.  How many people thought after Carolina marched down the field for a score, and then held the Cardinals, that this game would not be a blowout?  I also thought the Giants were going to come back, bust not get the cover on the Eagles, but Eli was Eli.   Last week I was 3-1, if you looked at my final scores I was 3-1 with the totals, so I think I will attempt to guess them this since there are only 4 possible bets on the board.   Pickin ATS for the Playoffs 5-3   Philly @ Arizona +4 49.5   Here we are, at the moment I have been fearing the most.  The Arizona Cardinals are one home game away from making it to the Super Bowl, and burying my foot in my mouth.  I originally started posting with how excited I was to bet against this team. I said they couldn't run or stop the run. I said Kurt Warner was a turnover waiting to happen. I lost some substantial wagers on them in this postseason, but luckily had the Steelers and Ravens to bail me out.   The Eagles have probably been an even bigger enigma than the Cardinals.  They tie the Bengals, McNabb gets benched against the Ravens, and the season is in disarray. This act is followed up by reeling off a few impressive victories, only to no show against the Redskins.  They get a blessing in a Raiders win over the Bucs, then beat th... [More]

Cards pull wool over our eyes

NFL Divisional Round Picks

I posted my picks for the wild card round last week, and failed at my goal of the perfect playoffs.  In reality I counted on 3-1, instead fell to 2-2 after the Westbrook screen in the Philly game.  However, I was correct in saying at some point in that game you would feel like if you were the coach of either team it would be an improvement.  Now onto this weeks picks.  I'm not even going to bother guessing totals since at this point anything can happen.   Baltimore @ Tennessee -3   Buckle up your chin straps for this contest, because this is going to be a good old fashioned smashmouth football game.  The teams are pretty much mirror images of one another.  Both teams have outstanding defenses, great ground attacks, and QB's considered to be game managers that have been able to make plays to win games.     When there is a matchup like this I generally side with the team who has the best player on the field.  It would be very hard to argue that on Saturday Ed Reed will not be the best player on the field.  Compound that with the fact Tennessee's passing game is comparable to the Miami passing game, and the fact is Kerry Collins is still Kerry Collins expect him to pick one off.  We all know when Ed Reed has the ball in his hands he is a threat to go to the house.  There will not be much relief in the ground game, last contest was the Titans worst rushing output of the season.   Injuries sho... [More]

Wild Card Round Picks

Much like espn.com's Bill Simmons it a life-long goal of mine to finish with a perfect playoffs.  The best I ever had was the 2006 playoffs where I went 9-1-1 and my one loss was cause I took Brady and the boys against Denver when he had yet to lose a playoff game.  That said this figures to be the toughest year I have seen in recent memory for pickin the opening round.   Atlanta @ Arizona PK 51 I posted a blog the other day to see if anyone was excited as I was to bet against Arizona.  Part of this was because that was how I really felt about that game, but I also wanted to hear what the other side of the argument was.  I was not given a good reason to take Arizona over the reasons I listed.  Turner will be able to run wild, Matty Ice will be able to make a few big plays when needed.  Arizona is no threat to run the ball, and Kurt Warner hasn't looked good in about 6 weeks.  Not to mention his proclivity for turning the ball over.   The Pick: Atlanta, slight lean on the under as well   Indianapolis @ San Diego +1.5 50   This is probably the most difficult game of the bunch to pick, which is not the norm for a 12-4 team playing an 8-8 team.  Then you consider the potential this 8-8 team has and how well they play, and how they have a history of playing the 12-4 team great.  There is not a scarier player in the NFL to have money against than Peyton Manning.  Whenever I have bet against him and won, ... [More]

Is anyone else as excited