I think there is a good chance to net a profit in fading all the Big East teams ATS on the opening weekend.  There are 11 teams from the conference in this tournament.  Yet I have been seeing the posted total for the Big East total wins at about 15.5 with over being at about -140.

With 11 teams in, and all the hype surrounding it, I think this is the books way of telling us they don't value the Big East.  This is especially alarming since in 9 out of the 11 First Round games the Big East is the higher seeded team.  There are even some circumstances where Big East teams can meet in the 2nd round and guarantee another win for the total....and yet that number is still 15.5. 

I think a smart play for the first round would be to take the Big East opponent in all 11 First Round games.  With straight bets across the board on a standard -110 vig, 6 wins would net a 4.5% profit.
7 wins would net a 23.6% profit, 8 would be 42.7%.

I feel almost certain I can get 6 covers, pretty confident I will get 7, and hoping to score big and hit 8 or more.