Much like espn.com's Bill Simmons it a life-long goal of mine to finish with a perfect playoffs. The best I ever had was the 2006 playoffs where I went 9-1-1 and my one loss was cause I took Brady and the boys against Denver when he had yet to lose a playoff game. That said this figures to be the toughest year I have seen in recent memory for pickin the opening round.
Atlanta @ Arizona PK 51
I posted a blog the other day to see if anyone was excited as I was to bet against Arizona. Part of this was because that was how I really felt about that game, but I also wanted to hear what the other side of the argument was. I was not given a good reason to take Arizona over the reasons I listed. Turner will be able to run wild, Matty Ice will be able to make a few big plays when needed. Arizona is no threat to run the ball, and Kurt Warner hasn't looked good in about 6 weeks. Not to mention his proclivity for turning the ball over.
The Pick: Atlanta, slight lean on the under as well
Indianapolis @ San Diego +1.5 50
This is probably the most difficult game of the bunch to pick, which is not the norm for a 12-4 team playing an 8-8 team. Then you consider the potential this 8-8 team has and how well they play, and how they have a history of playing the 12-4 team great. There is not a scarier player in the NFL to have money against than Peyton Manning. Whenever I have bet against him and won, I felt like I won three times more than my actual wager. Facts are facts and numbers don't lie, but for some reason Peyton does not play the Chargers well. Very overlooked in this game is the injury that will sideline Colts LB Gary Brackett, one of the bigger playmakers on defense. San Diego has a very versatile offense, and did beat this Indy team in Indy last year with a banged up Gates, LT, and Rivers. I have no rhyme or reason for this game what so ever, as a valid argument could be made to bet each team.
The Pick: San Diego (mostly because the worst gambler I know said this was the easiest game on the board, gettin ready for 3 hours of cursing Peyton up and down.) Slight lean on over.
Baltimore @ Miami +3.5 37
The purple-clad Ravens against the white and green Dolphins, not exactly the colors you would associate with what figures to be the most physical of all the opening round games. I am humored by the fact I proposed taking the Falcons and I get warned about taking a rookie QB on the road, yet it still seems most people like the Ravens with Flacco. This game is going to be decided by who wins the turnover battle, which normally would favor Chad Pennington versus a rookie QB. However, this is the Baltimore D, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed led and they are way to smart and way to disciplined to fall victim to the Dolphins trickery. I also like the idea that it seems half of Baltimores roster played college ball at Miami. Ultimately I don't think the Phins have enough pop to keep stride with the Ravens, who I figure to score once of D or ST.
The Pick: Baltimore, liking the over since most people forget this years Ravens team has an offense.
Philadelphia @ Minnesota +3.5 41
At some point during this game, you will be convinced you could coach either of these teams and be an improvement to either squad. There has not been a team that has let me down more this season than the Eagles. Whether is be through Westbrook being inconsistent in fantasy, or there ability to look like one of the worst teams in the league after a few weeks of looking like the best team in the league. The key to this game will be who scores first. If Philly gets down they will predictably pass every down and Minny has the pass rush to force McNabb into making some bad plays. That said Minnesota still have Tavaris Jackson and probably the worst special teams I have seen all year. Look for Peterson to keep this game close, but I think the hook will grab some people on this one.
The Pick: Vikings +3.5 (I expect the Eagles to win but not cover) slight lean on over
Best of luck to all, I'm sure I have at least one loser in there, but 3-1 and a profit is the realistic goal.