scho525's Blog

NFL Divisional Round Picks

By scho525 | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, January 07, 2009 12:57 PM   11 comments
I posted my picks for the wild card round last week, and failed at my goal of the perfect playoffs.  In reality I counted on 3-1, instead fell to 2-2 after the Westbrook screen in the Philly game.  However, I was correct in saying at some point in that game you would feel like if you were the coach of either team it would be an improvement.  Now onto this weeks picks.  I'm not even going to bother guessing totals since at this point anything can happen.
 
Baltimore @ Tennessee -3
 
Buckle up your chin straps for this contest, because this is going to be a good old fashioned smashmouth football game.  The teams are pretty much mirror images of one another.  Both teams have outstanding defenses, great ground attacks, and QB's considered to be game managers that have been able to make plays to win games.  
 
When there is a matchup like this I generally side with the team who has the best player on the field.  It would be very hard to argue that on Saturday Ed Reed will not be the best player on the field.  Compound that with the fact Tennessee's passing game is comparable to the Miami passing game, and the fact is Kerry Collins is still Kerry Collins expect him to pick one off.  We all know when Ed Reed has the ball in his hands he is a threat to go to the house.  There will not be much relief in the ground game, last contest was the Titans worst rushing output of the season.
 
Injuries should also play a roll in this game, with the two highly touted defensive lineman for Tennessee Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth being banged up, they are unproven of their level of performance.  Even if they are good to go, look for conditioning for the big guys to be a factor later in the game.  Most importantly is the injury to C Kevin Mawae.  A veteran of his caliber can not be replaced at this position, especially against this defense.
 
Last game the refs kept the Titans alive on a horrible blow to the shoulder err....head by Terrell Suggs on the game-winning drive.
 
The Pick:  Baltimore 16 Tennesse 10
 
Arizona @ Carolina -10
 
I am the biggest hater of this Arizona Cardinals team on this site probably, so my opinion may come across as biased.  They will not be able to jump the snap count on the road (yes they were jumping the snap count not getting off the ball, evident by the number of offsides penalties).  They are not facing a lifetime backup running back who carried the ball almsot 400 times this year (might have overlooked that last week).  They face the best duo of RB's in the league.  It was a freak of nature play that turned around that Atlanta game.  Once they fell behind, contrary to what I beleive Matt Ryan turned into a rookie.  Jake Delhomme,  though not an amazing talent, is a poised veteran and has Steve Smith (who is still running past the Arizona secondary from last game) to throw to.  Arizona also does not have the luxury of facing the 24th ranked rush defense like they did last week, or having a great receiving duo cause Boldin will be a shell of himself this week if he is out there.
 
Most important stat for me Carolina 8-0 at home, Arizona 0 for the East Coast.
 
The Pick:  Carolina 31 Arizona 13  (Warner 3 TO's)
 
Philly @ New York -4
 
Does anyone really think they know what will happen in this game?  You are kidding yourself if you wager substantially on this game with any confidence.  Unfortunately for people like myself, it is tough to take a game off at this stage of the season.  The coaching difference is probably the greatest in this game out of all the other games on the board.  To me that is enough to win a game of this magnitude between two divisional rivals.  Aside from that, this game a is deadlocked.
 
The Pick:  New York 23 Philly 21
 
San Diego @ Pittsburgh -6
 
How many times will the disallowed touchdown that costed most bettors be brought up this week?  I had San Diego big that game, and I felt like I hit the lottery.  Not only was the last touchdown disallowed, but San Diego was outplayed on a massive level that game.  The team is beat up after playing 5 straight playoff games and unlike Indy, Pittsburgh will hit them in the mouth.  LT is probably a no go, Gates is still banged up.  The receivers are already thin, and now we know what Vincent Jackson does to bounce back from a no show game, get picked up for DUI.
 
A lot is being made of Darren Sproles.  No team has ever known going into the game they needed to key in on this guy, which I think helps explain some of the productivity.  This is the Pittsburgh D though, nothing comes easy against them.  Unlike the Colts, the Steelers play a 3-4 which means there will be more speed to combat Sproles.  The playing surface is also a Sproles equalizer.  Every football game in the state of Pennsylvania has been played on that field, and it resembles a practice field more than a NFL field.  I'm not sure of what the final record turned out to be, but how did west coast teams end up faring on the east coast this year.
 
The only thing that worries me is that if this becomes a field position game, San Diego Punter = Amazing
                      Pittsburgh Punter = Horrific
 
The Pick:  Pittsburgh 24 San Diego 16
 
 
11 comments
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shrimp1958 says:
01/07/09 01:19PM
Nice write ups.You know what happened in Ravens/Titans game first time...BS  penalty on Suggs kept that drive alive.
bigguy66 says:
01/07/09 06:29PM
Tenn. 21- 17 Baltimore is over rated and Tenn. is way better then Miami. Baltimore's rookie QB will not be able to do anything this time. I look for him to trow 3 ints.
davidoliver2406 says:
01/07/09 10:17PM
Just my insight........been cappin games 9 years..trust me or don't, I don't care.....DO YOU REALLY THINK THE GIANTS WITH A WEEK OFF, A BANGED UP WESTBROOK, NO RUNNING GAME, THROW 61 % EAGLES TEAM, CAN ACTUALLY BE IN THIS GAME AFTER HALF?.....Nice comeback to the playoffs Philly, 10-5-1 Philly team...But the Giants will handle them. I'm lookin 31-13, 34-17. Andy Reid has survived the last 3 years. He's done, argue that! Coughlin has made his team believe in him since mid last year. You have it 23-21. Is that a GW Giants field goal or back door cover fpr Philly. I like your other picks (expect Baltimore) and wish you luck. But give me a better reason to take Philly

GL and get that money

scho525 says:
01/08/09 02:30AM
Banged up westbrook..he has been banged up all year, our outside knowledge has no clue of telling, the giants with no running game you must be smokin something i want, especially with bj comin back. but this game is a crapshoot, either team can blow either team out and each team has proven so, when in doubt take the points or just dont bet at all
scho525 says:
01/08/09 02:32AM
but my personal forecast the eagles are trailin and andy reid mismanages the clock and eli cashes in on a last second field goal
scho525 says:
01/08/09 02:33AM
i meant the giants are trailing before andy reid makes his prototypical mistake
scho525 says:
01/08/09 03:17AM
bigguy66...im not attacking your thoughts on this game as much as i just want answers to a few questions...#1 you have the titans scoring 30 plus against the hottest d in the nfl right now explain....#2 is tenn really better than miami, cause if you take miami's first 5 weeks out, and tennessees last 5 weeks out they are the exact same team...#3 Flacco hardly did a thing last game and that was his 5th game, do you think he might be better in his 18th...#4 part of the titans success is based on their d, do you really expect haynesworth and vanden bosch to be effective all 4 qtrs. when this game will surely take 60 mins to decide #5 does the abscense of mawae not phase you what soever...and last but not least, do you not expect the ravens be able to bait the titans d i.e. finnegan into a personal foul, cause they do that better than anyone.

listen i understand if someone has the titans, at this stage of the season aside from the cardinals you can argue anyone can beat anyone, but you have this game mapped out as a clear blowout, this ravens team is a blown call to the titans, and a possible blown call against the steelers from being 13-3 and the only losses being to the giants, colts, and steelers on the road.....not exactly bad losses, and the actual 5 losses they had came to playoff teams, unlike the titans who were embarassed at home by a jets team that is sitting at home right now, lost to the texans, and needed an act of god to beat the jags

scho525 says:
01/08/09 03:18AM
either way, i should get to my task of countin the money i made off rutgers mens b-ball team tonight
mleavers2000 says:
01/08/09 07:54AM
I like all your picks this weekend except the Giants win by more than 4 and get the cover. Really like Baltimore and Carolina.

GL

Dougee says:
01/09/09 01:26PM
Giants cover all day. Do the titans put up more than 20 on Balt D?? Like the over but but only way Balt sticks this one out is to keep Titans O off the field. And does Pitt have what it takes with a struggling Roethisburger. Thoughts??
scho525 says:
01/10/09 11:10PM
that b.s. penalty on suggs is probably why there was a no call on flacco for delay of game, ha
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