Went 2-2 last week on my posted plays. Did end up loading up on San Diego -6 and Indy +2 at last minute, but that was more of a degenerate impulse than really liking the picks. Now for this weeks picks that I like.
Chicago -10I'm happy for Detroit that they finally ended their losing streak, but they will be sure to continue their losing ways when they travel to Chicago this week. Despite leading his team from behind in the past 2 games, Jay Cutler has still not had his huge breakout performance for the Bears yet. What better way to get the fans off your back than lighting the score board up against the Lions weak pass defense. Same for Matt Forte, as the Lions should prove to be like the fat chick at the end of the bar, nothing more than a slump buster. Kevin Smith is banged up so it will be tough for the Lions to stay in this game early. I'll take my chances against Matthew Stafford on the road. This game also takes on added significance for the Bears who are already 0-1 in the division, need to keep stride with the Packers and Vikings facing off this week.
New Orleans -7When I first saw this line I thought it was WAY to high. Then I really started thinking and realized I almost found myself on this Jets bandwagon that seems to growing exponentially by the week. Don't get me wrong, I have been impressed with what they have done, but at the end of the day its still the Jets. You never know when midnight will strike on them and when they will show their true colors. The win at Houston is not as impressive in my eyes anymore as the Texans have once again failed to meet expectations. I think Mark Sanchez has a bright future in this league, but I can't realistically see him keeping stride with Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints offense. I know the Jets D has looked great but I'm not sure if there is D in the NFL that can contain the Saints at home. Look for Sanchez to finally look like a rookie in this shootout.
Denver +3I seem to notice that when you see a team getting 3 at home, they seem to fare well ATS. Would be curious to find out the exact numbers on this, but I have a strong feeling +3 homedogs cash in more times than not. Many people think that the Broncos are not as good as their record indicates based on their opponents, but does Dallas beating Tampa Bay and Carolina really impress anyone? Dallas does run the ball well, but are banged up in the backfield. Tashard Choice is more than serviceable as a starting running back, but does not offer the homerun threat that Barber and Jones do. With the Cowboys passing game basically being a series of 7 yard passes to Jason Witten, I have a hard time seeing them keeping the chains moving. Brian Dawkins is also no stranger to the Cowboys, and as a defensive leader should be able to provide valuable insight to teammates. The Cowboys run D has been suspect this season, so look for the Broncos to run it with their plethora of backs.
San Diego +6.5Philip Rivers continues to in my eyes go under the radar for how good he really is. Has anyone in the NFL been throwing a better deep ball than Rivers. Tomlinson being out of this game has no bearing to me since the Chargers have never been able to run the ball on the Steelers. The loss of Troy Polamalu should prove to be more costly when Rivers will have one less thing to worry about before and during every snap. These teams tend to play down to the wire. Which is why in a game like this I will take 6.5 points all day long. Would not be surprised if the Chargers win outright, but Pittsburgh doesn't win by more than 4.
Last Week: 2-2Season: 2-2