scottshapell's Blog

Posted Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:33 AM

Champions League Picks: Matchday Six

This midweek sees the final games from the group stage of the Champions League, who will reach the knockout stages? We’re looking at the biggest games.

Group A sees Tottenham Hotspur and Inter Milan locked at the top of the table with ten points from their opening five matches and both are playing away games this Tuesday, with Spurs at FC Twente and Inter facing Werder Bremen, with the aim of topping the group. Of the two sides, Spurs are in better form and are unbeaten in their last six matches, while Inter have lost three of their last five games. How will these games go? Let’s look at the matchups and the updated Champions League odds.

Spurs face a tough task to claim all three points against an FC Twente side that has lost just one of its last 22 games at home in the last year, however they have not won in this year’s Champions League at home and have drawn both games played. Spurs are patchy on the road and have lost four of their last seven away games, and they have drawn one and lost one away in the Champions League this season.

However, with winning the group at stake we expect them to win this match and we’re backing them to win the game. Sportsbook have the current odds @ 2.00.

Both Werder Bremen and Inter Milan are in poor form, with Werder having collected one win their last nine games and they have earned just two points fr... [More]

Posted Tuesday, December 07, 2010 09:12 AM

NBA Betting: Tuesday NBA Picks

NBA Betting: Not one of the seven matchups Tuesday features two teams that each have a win-loss record above .500 but this Western Conference rivalry between the Suns and Trailblazers is a close as it gets.

Portland started last season at 12-8 before going on to win 50 games but the Trailblazers are 2-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. Sportsbook have the home side favored.

Phoenix (11-9) at Portland (9-11)
Line: Trailblazers -3
Over/Under: 204
Portland started the season 6-3 but fell into six-game spiral that sent their fans into a tizzy.

The Blazers led at half-time in three of the six losses and three were by four points or less, but was Sunday’s win against the Clippers a turning point or an aberration?

Strong play in the defensive zone will a key for Portland but the Suns (109.8 ppg) lead the league in scoring and for seven-straight games have notched 105-plus points per game. Look for the Trailblazers to fall behind in the second-half and for this game to finish with a margin of less than three.
Pick: Take the Suns

Washington (6-13) at L.A. Lakers (14-6)
Line: Lakers -13
Over/Under: 206.5
The Lakers won their first game in over a week Friday, beating Sacramento 113-80 SU/ATS. It was LA’s most convincing win of the season, covering the spread by more than 20 points, and after a three-day layoff t... [More]

Posted Monday, December 06, 2010 03:26 AM

NFL Pick: Monday Night Football – New York Jets at New England Patriots

Monday Night Football betting action for tonight’s contest have favored the Patriots by more than 60-percent throughout the week, but online sportsbook haven’t moved the line off 3.5. New England is 11-3 ATS in its past 14 games as a home favorite by 3.5-to-10 points but in the most recent; an ATS loss Week 11 vs. Indianapolis, the Patriots needed a Red Zone takeaway in the final minute just to avoid the straight-up loss.

New York doubled up the Patriots 28-14 in Week 2, but it’s worth noting that in the past seven seasons, Bill Belichick’s squad holds a 12-4 advantage in 16 meetings, playoffs included. The Jets’ Mark Sanchez tossed three TD passes in the first meeting and for a while, it seemed the sophomore QB had curbed an interception tendency that tied him for second-most (20) in the league last season.

Bad decisions in his past six games have added up to eight picks, however, and the improvements we’ve seen from this young New England secondary since Week 2 could pose a serious threat to the Jets passing game.

UNIVERSITY OF BELICHICK

The Patriots are plus-11 in turnovers this season while the Jets have a rating of plus-7. New England has won the turnover battle in seven of its past nine games and the defensive minded head coach/D-Co Belichick h... [More]

Posted Monday, December 06, 2010 03:24 AM

Premier League Pick: Aston Villa v Liverpool

The Premier League’s weekend action draws to a close this Monday as Liverpool take on Aston Villa at Anfield. Who will take all three points?

Aston Villa v Liverpool

The final game of matchday sixteen in the Premier League sees twelfth placed Liverpool take on sixteenth placed Aston Villa in what promises to be an intriguing match. Who do the bookies will walk away with the spoils? Bet365 make Liverpool the 1.57 favourites to collect all three points, with an Aston Villa win available at 6.50 and the draw can be backed at odds of 3.80.

This season has not been a good season for Liverpool and with manager changes and the club being taken over, they have won just four of their opening fifteen games. However, they have collected a total of nineteen points in the league and thanks to the closeness of the league this season, a win in this match will send them rocketing up the table to seventh place. Their home form has been good recently and they have won all of their last three home games against Blackburn Rovers, Chelsea and West Ham. For this game they are missing both Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher through injury and Fernando Torres is still not hitting the heights that he can do when in form, so will they continue in their winning form?

Aston Villa are very much out ... [More]

Posted Monday, December 06, 2010 12:01 AM

NFL Betting: Cowboys at Colts Pick

The words “Indianapolis Colts” and “losing streak” go together like Irish Cream and lime juice, also known as a Cement Mixer. It’s the kind of prank you play on your best enemy and this week the Dallas Cowboys (3-8) are the intended target.

Indianapolis (6-5) has lost three in a row and Peyton Manning has thrown seven picks the past two weeks after throwing just two the first seven games this season. It’s given sportsbook little choice but to post a modest betting line for the perennial favourite and the Colts look like a strong play for anyone making NFL picks this weekend.

DALLAS AT INDIANAPOLIS

Line: Colts -5.5

Over/Under: 47.5

Dallas is 3-0 ATS since making the change from Wade Phillips to Jason Garrett and they could very well be 3-0 straight-up had Roy Williams been more aware of the situation vs. New Orleans. That turnover was a key to the game and Indy’s -8 turnover ratio in the past two weeks is a key to why the Colts are on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in.

Indy is having huge problems running the ball but gets RB Hart back this week and the tandem of Hart and Brown should be more effective. The Colts are 10-1 SU at home the past five seasons off a home game (6-5 ATS), and 3-0 SU... [More]

Posted Saturday, December 04, 2010 04:38 AM

Premier League Picks

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This weekend sees the 16th round of games from England’s Premier League a... [More]

Posted Saturday, December 04, 2010 04:30 AM

SEC Championship Pick: Auburn vs. South Carolina

It’s round two for Auburn and South Carolina, as these two faced off earlier in the season. That meeting resulted in a come-from-behind 35-27 win for the Tigers. Now they meet in the SEC Championship game, the first time since 1994 Auburn has played in the Conference title matchup. 

The Tigers come in fresh of that wildly entertaining victory last week vs. Alabama in which they overcame a 24-0 deficit. Falling behind early only to rally for wins has become somewhat of a trademark for Auburn this season, as they’ve done it in eight of their 12 wins.

Sportsbook have this game set with Auburn as a 5.5-point favourite and a Total of 61.5. The Tigers have a record of 7-1 ATS versus conference opponents this season. 

While Auburn fans are excitedly booking tickets to Arizona to watch their team in the BCS Championship game on January 10th, the Gamecocks have a real shot at upending all those plans. Coach Spurrier’s team already proved they can hang with the Tigers in that 35-27 loss in late September. It was four South Carolina turnovers that snapped the defeat from the jaws of victory, as they let Auburn off the hook. 

The Gamecock defense has been impressive all season, and while controlling Cam Newton and Co. Is a very difficult proposition, if they can get some help from the offens... [More]

Posted Friday, December 03, 2010 03:50 AM

Serie A Picks

Serie A Picks: This weekend’s Serie A action runs from Friday night to Monday and Sportsbook is here with some great tips on the biggest games from the games being played.

Inter Milan vs. Lazio
The weekend begins on Friday night with the biggest game of the 10 being played as former league leaders Lazio entertain fifth placed Inter Milan the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. After losing top spot in the league at the start of November thanks to two straight defeats to Roma and Cesena, Lazio have bounced back with two wins and two draws in the following four games. They lie second in the table, just three points behind AC Milan, and they are four points ahead of Inter. Inter have won their last two matches, and even scored five goals in their last game, but they have not won away from home since the end of October. Despite this, they are improving again. We feel that this game will end as a draw. Sportsbooks have this line at 2.73, which we are backing.

Juventus vs. Catania
Sunday’s late game promises to be an excellent game as Catania host Juventus at the Stadio Angelo Massimino. Catania are eleventh in the table and have lost just one of their last eight games and are unbeaten in 2010 at home, a run of 21 games. Juventus are third in the table, just three points behind Lazio in second, but have drawn nine of their last fourteen games. However, they hav... [More]

Posted Friday, December 03, 2010 01:58 AM

La Liga Picks: Valencia vs. Real Madrid

La Liga Picks: Following Barcelona’s 5-0 thumping of Real Madrid last weekend, we’re back to business in Spain’s top division and we’re here to preview the biggest games.

Valencia vs. Real Madrid
For a second weekend running, Real Madrid are involved in the match of the weekend and they will be looking to claim all three points as they host Valencia at the Bernabeu on Saturday night. Their loss to Barcelona was their first defeat all season. Jose Mourinho has to be feeling that his side will collect all three points after winning each of the nine games played at home this season by an aggregate scoreline of 32-4. The last time they were beaten at home was in April and that loss came to Barcelona. They followed that up by beating Valencia in the next game. Will they do the same? We believe so.
We’re backing them to win. Sportsbook have them at odds of 1.23.

Villarreal vs. Sevilla
The weekend’s other big game sees third placed Villarreal take on the side in eighth, Sevilla, at the Camp El Madrigal stadium. Villarreal have a home record almost as impressive as Real Madrid as they have played ten matches at home in all competitions this season, winning nine and drawing one. Sevilla have lost both of their last two matches and they have lost two of their last three away games, conceding ten goals in those three matches. However, we are not expe... [More]

Posted Thursday, December 02, 2010 06:52 AM

NFL Betting: Early Week 13 Pick

Some say the league didn’t come down hard enough on Denver head Coach, Josh McDaniels for his part in the Spygate II scandal but after watching the St. Louis Rams pummel the last place Broncos Sunday on their own turf, is there any more discipline required?

McDaniels is on the hot seat in Denver and after the success Jason Garrett (3-0 ATS) and Leslie Frazier (1-0 ATS) have experienced since taking over the head coaching jobs in Dallas and Minnesota, a change of scenery in the Rockies could be eminent.

Denver lost a close one to the Jets in Week 6 that they had every right to win. Since then, the only two highlights for the Broncos have been a 35-point scoring spree in the first-half against the Chiefs and 20 fourth quarter points against the Rams in Week 12.

Online sportsbook set the betting odds for Denver and Kansas City this week at Chiefs (-7) but that line did not last through Arizona’s first fumble in the Monday Night Football game vs. San Francisco.

Sportsbetting.com currently lists the Chiefs (-9) and picks on Kansas City at home this season have produced a 4-1 ATS record – that’s a profit of plus-2.9 units.

Kansas City’s veteran coaches will have learned from their mistakes of the last meeting but in this short turn-around situation between division rivals we predict a much lower scoring game than the 49-29 final... [More]

Posted Thursday, December 02, 2010 05:23 AM

NBA Betting: Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Basketball betting storylines for the first month of the season have led to Thursday night’s matchup between the Miami Heat (-4.5) and Cleveland Cavaliers.

Online sportsbook were projecting the Heat as nine-point favorites for this contest when the season began (with NBA Prospective lines), but given Miami’s current seven-game streak of losses against the spread (ATS), it’s a wonder they’re even favored at all.

Cleveland has posted a 4-4 ATS record the past while but they were underdogs in 7-of-8. The Cavs have an illustrious 5-0 record straight-up (SU) and ATS vs. Miami since March of 2009, but LeBron James was Cleveland’s leading scorer in four out of five games.

Ah yes, King James. Where would the Cleveland franchise be without their deserting leader? James averaged more than 28 points per game the past five years with Cleveland and so far this year with the Heat is netting just 23.7 points per contest.

James was good for 31.6 points in the past five meetings between these teams and this season through 17 games the King has crowned 32-plus points only three times.

Sportsbooks are giving bettors a chance to bet on nearly every aspect of this game, offering betting prop and Over/Under odds for how many points LeBron will score, does Chris Bosh remain an afterthought (O/U... [More]

Posted Wednesday, December 01, 2010 10:55 PM

49ers vs Cardinals: Monday Night Football Picks

49ers vs Cardinals: The Arizona Cardinals were in Kansas City last week while the San Francisco 49ers endured their first home shutout since 1977 at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

After Sunday’s results the NFC West race has been transformed into a three-team race. The competitors are Seattle (5-6), St. Louis (5-6), and the winner of tonight’s game.

SAN FRANCISCO (3-7) AT ARIZONA (3-7)
Sportsbook have the number on this one set as the 49ers -1 and the Total is 40.

The fantasy ride for quarterback Troy Smith could be short-lived but this week he gets one more chance. Coach Singletary said he wouldn’t hesitate to bench QB Smith if he’s playing a miserable game and Alex Smith is second on the depth chart.

TE Vernon Davis, who left the game against Tampa Bay with an ankle injury, should be fine but San Francisco needs to hitch its wagon to Frank Gore.

Gore (foot) is coming off his worst game of the season against Tampa Bay and it could have partly been due to his injury, but this week he is ready to go. Arizona’s front seven is beat up right now and Gore could be the key to opening up room for the passing game.

Arizona HC Whisenhunt is under pressure to produce on offense and critics are starting to question why the team won’t bring in an offensive co-ordinator. The Cardinals will go with Derek Anderson at QB but l... [More]

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