scottshapell's Blog
Posted Thursday, September 30, 2010 03:31 AM
Right from the first Thursday night game of
the NFL season the weekly football betting routine can fly by at a
furious pace. NFL lines for the following week’s games are often posted
by online sportsbook
before we have even heard the final whistle on Sunday Night Football
but as fans and bettors, we wouldn’t have it any other way.
It’s
hard to believe three weeks have already passed and as we work through
the Week 4 card, it’s time to start focusing a little closer on
matchups and situational football handicapping.
The
bye weeks are here, starting with the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota
Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It means a little
less action from a viewing standpoint but the smaller card also frees
up more time to handicap the other 14 games on the card.
LONG DIVISION
In
Week 4, even with the bye weeks coming into effect, there are more
divisional games scheduled than in any other week through the first
month. Week 1 had seven, Week 2 there was only three and in Week 3 we
saw six divisional matchups.
The
road team will be favored in at least four of the nine divisional
contests, possibly five, depending which way the line moves in New
England at Miami.
There is
a trend developing this s... [More]
Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 01:04 AM
The second half of this week’s Champions League action kicks off today, but who will claim the points in today’s eight games? Let’s previews a selection of games.
Group C – Valencia v Manchester United:
The night’s biggest game comes from the Mestalla Stadium as La Liga leaders Valencia host second in the Premier League table Manchester United. Will United turn around their away form record this season with a victory? Valencia are the favourites to win the match with odds of 2.63, while Man United can be backed at 2.75 and the draw is available at 3.20.
Despite being massively in debt and selling off the majority of their top players, including David Villa, David Silva and Nikola Zigic, over the summer, Valencia have begun the La Liga campaign in fine form and top the table after five games. They have dropped just two points from their opening five games and they are ahead of Barcelona by a point and Real Madrid by two. They also thumped Bursaspor 4-0 in Turkey in their opening Champions League fixture, now can they add another win to their collection against Alex Ferguson’s men?
Manchester United sit second in the Premier League after an undefeated start to the season and, although they have shown glimpses of their brilliance, they are underperforming this season. They have played eight matches this season between the Premier League, Carling Cup and Champions League and they have won four and drawn four of these. Away from home they have drawn with Fu...
[More]
Posted Wednesday, September 29, 2010 12:43 AM
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Before the
season began, an argument could have been made for any one of three AFC
divisions to be the top of the class. Sorry West, you weren’t invited to the
party.
After three
weeks, not a lot has been settled in the debate for divisional supremacy. The
East and South divisions each contain three teams with identical 2-1
straight-up (SU) records while Baltimore and Cincinnati balance the
North.
Miami impressed with back-to-back road
wins to start the season but couldn’t handle the New York Jets Sunday night. New England has looked very good on offense for two
and-a-half of its three games but a defensive breakdown cost bettors against
the Bills and in the only half where the Pats offense was shutout, the Jets
made ... [More]
Posted Monday, September 27, 2010 01:34 AM
The Packers started the season with a decisive win in
Philadelphia and backed it up with a proper throttling of Buffalo in
Week 2 at Lambeau Field. Last season Green Bay had made a habit of
beating up on lesser foes (by an average of more than 25 points per
game) and last week’s 34-7 final was right in line.
Sportsbook have the line in this one posted as the Packers -3, with a Total of 46.
Chicago
barely avoided an opening week upset at the hands of the Detroit Lions,
while they were big underdogs Week 2 in Dallas, a game they won
straight up.
Now Chicago is 2-0 SU on the season and looking for
its first 3-0 start since a memorable 2006 campaign that ended with
Super Bowl loss to the Colts.
In 2009, the Bears did start the year with a 3-1 SU/ATS record but the loss was suffered in Week 1 against these same Packers.
HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
Chicago
won only seven games last season so it’s not surprising they were 0-2
SU/ATS against the 11-win Packers. Green Bay also swept the Bears in
2008 against the number. In fact Chicago bettors have not had a winning
season backing the Bears against the division since 2005 (4-1-1 ATS)
BACK IT UP
Green
Bay was 5-1 SU/ATS against low-tier opponents last year, all five wins
coming by a margin of 19 points or more (26.6 ppg avg). In the contest
that immediately followed the five blowout victori...
[More]
Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 07:05 AM
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There is another
full card of English Premier League matches this weekend and after the
excitement of last weekend’s games we’re expecting more fireworks this Saturday
and Sunday! Let’s look at the four biggest games.
Chelsea vs. Man City
The weekend
kicks off with the biggest game as Manchester
City host Chelsea at the City of Manchester Stadium in
Saturday’s lunchtime kickoff. Chelsea
have started the season off in impressive style, winning all six of their
Premier and Champions League matches and scoring 25 goals in the process. This
game will be their first big test of the season though and it was one they
failed last season, losing both games against Manchester City.
However, they look stronger a... [More]
Posted Friday, September 24, 2010 07:01 AM
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Upsets
ruled the board in Week 2 of the NFL season with underdogs going 5-10-1 against
the spread (ATS).
Divisional
favorites were a bad bet, as Baltimore, Carolina and New England were all on
the losing side – not only at the betting window – but straight-up (SU) as
well.
The
Patriots (-14.5) this week were already listed as the biggest favorite of the
season when sportsbook opened the
line for their game against the Buffalo Bills. Heavy action since Monday
though, has pushed the line has high as 15 points at some places. Given Buffalo’s performance so
far it is quite likely that number will touch 16 points by kickoff.
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Posted Thursday, September 23, 2010 05:21 AM
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UFC 119 is this Saturday September 25 in Indianapolis, Indiana
and online sportsbook
Sportsbetting.com has the odds on the upcoming fight card. This fight card may
not have a Championship title on the line, it does offer plenty of
opportunities to move into a position to challenge for one.
Frank Mir -250 vs
Mirko Cro Cop +180
This is the last gasp for two great warriors of MMA. Frank
Mir 13-5 coming off a devastating 1st round loss to Shane Carwin
gets a chance back on the road for the heavyweight championship against Pride legend Mirko Cro Cop. Cro Cop
27-7-2 is riding a 2 fight winning streak and coming off an impressive come
from behind win against Pat Barry. Cro Cop is a replacement for an... [More]
Posted Thursday, September 23, 2010 05:08 AM
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Parity is looming large through the
first two weeks of the NFL season with eight teams at 2-0, eight more at 0-2
and the remaining 16 teams sitting with a 1-1 straight-up record.
It has set Week 3 up as a pivotal
start for several teams and sportsbook
have posted some tight lines. Out of 16 games, online sportsbook,
Sportsbetting.com, has 10 teams favored by four points or less.
One way bettors can take advantage of
the situation is to look ahead to Week 4 matchups and check ‘Prospective
Betting’ lines that are currently being offered.
Prospective Betting involves picking
sides from an upcoming point in t... [More]
Posted Thursday, September 23, 2010 04:55 AM
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The Formula One World Championship is heating
up as the season nears its completion! There are five drivers who could
possibly win the title and they are all separated by fewer points than can be
claimed for winning a race, and this weekend we return to Singapore – the site of the biggest
scandal in Formula One in recent years.
The Singapore race was first held as
part of the Formula One World Championship in 2008 and that race was won by one
of this season’s title contenders Fernando Alonso in a Renault. Alonso started
the race in 15th and went on to win the race following a safety car
period after his team-mate crashed when he was the only driver to have stopped
for a pit stop. This allowed Alonso to control the race from the front, however
it later emerged that Renault had orde... [More]
Posted Tuesday, September 21, 2010 04:35 AM
In case there was any uncertainty, Indianapolis laid
everyone’s concerns to rest Sunday night in front of a national TV
audience: Peyton Manning’s offense is still one of the best in the
business, a championship defense can in fact be built on speed, and the
Colts are the top team in the AFC South (yes, Houston we know you scored
the victory Week 1).
A performance like Sunday’s win over the
Giants makes the price that sportsbooks have on the Colts (+400) to win
the AFC look attractive and the opportunity for such an offer is likely
only going to be around for a few more days.
Indianapolis is at
Denver in Week 3 and Sportsbetting.com has listed the Colts as a 6-
point favorite. After that one, Indy will face Jacksonville and Kansas
City, a pair of 1-and-1 clubs, and even though Indy may not cover the
spread in all three matchups, odds are very good they will be 4-1 SU
(straight-up) by Week 6.
- Houston improved to 2-0 SU with an
overtime win at Washington, who the Colts will meet in Week 6 and then
Indianapolis has a bye. When they return it’s a rematch with the Texans
on Monday Night Football!
Wouldn’t it be something if the Colts are 5-0 SU for that game since that loss in Houston Week 1.
‘Prospective Betting’ lines for that and every matchup from now through Week 17 are available now at the
sportsbook. The current line shows Indiana...
[More]
Posted Monday, September 20, 2010 01:44 AM
Monday Night Football is usually considered the ‘big’
game of the week during the regular season, but with the run the Saints
have been on, primetime matchups are starting to become old hat. In a
stretch that goes back to last year’s playoffs, tonight marks the fifth
consecutive game for New Orleans in front of a national TV audience.
The
Week 1 opener vs. Minnesota was not exactly the brand of football
Saints bettors have become accustomed to, but a 14-9 win was enough to
get the team past the mythical post-Super Bowl jinx that has sent
several past champions to the mat.
San Francisco not only lost
its first game, they were slapped hard by a divisional opponent
(Seattle) who this weekend at Denver proved they were not very special
after all. The pressure in this game for a strong performance is clearly
on the 49ers.
In Sportsbetting.com the Sportsbook have the line as New Orleans -5.
PAST PERFORMANCES
2010
marks the third straight year the Saints have opened the season at home
and followed it with a non-divisional road game the very next week.
They are 3-0 SU in the home portion and the games that followed the last
two years had completely different results (5 point loss – 26 point
win). Today’s Saints are nothing like the group from `08, however, so
it’s not worth putting too much weight into the trend.
It is
worth noting that the Saints are 6-9 ATS on Monday Night and they have
won five straight...
[More]
Posted Thursday, September 16, 2010 03:11 AM
Ex-Ravens coach Brian
Billick has stated many times that in his opinion, one of the hardest
things for any team to do is win its opener away from home against a
familiar division foe.
In 2010, Week 1 of the NFL season featured seven divisional matchups and oddly enough, the road team was favored in all but one.
Sportsbooks
are assigned a difficult task in the first week, predicting where the
public sentiment will fall but in games like San Francisco (-3) at
Seattle and Dallas (-3.5) at Washington, the books were left with no
choice but to favor the road team.
By now we are all aware how
things went for the 49ers and Cowboys, and you can add Indianapolis (-2)
and San Diego (-4.5) to the list of Week 1 divisional road team upsets
as well.
But where is the next step for these clubs?
All
four were favored to win their division when the season began and
Sportsbetting.com still lists the Colts (-175), Chargers (-275), Cowboys
(+150) and Niners (even) as the odds-on pick to take the title.
The
schedule sees all four teams at home for Week 2 and three-of-four are
favored once again, two (Dallas, San Diego) by more than a touchdown.
Bettors
will be tempted by these home favorites to make a correction and get
back to .500 pronto. After all, Indianapolis didn’t lose its second game
last year until Week 17!
San Diego are notoriously slow starters
under Norv Turner, however, going 2-3 straight-u...
[More]
Posted Thursday, September 16, 2010 12:52 AM
There is a full round of matches from England’s Premier League this weekend and we’re taking a look at the top plays.
The
biggest game of the weekend plays on Sunday as Manchester United take
on Liverpool at Old Trafford. Manchester United have played well at
home, winning both league matches 3-0, while Liverpool have already lost
in Manchester once this season. They were beaten 3-0 by Manchester City
in their first away game, and they were also held to a 0-0 draw against
Birmingham City last weekend. Will these form lines continue?
We
expect so and, while we’re leaning towards a home win, we’re going with
goals in this game, with our money on over 2.5 goals to be scored.
Sportsbooks have the current line at 1.94.
Also in action is
Arsenal, who travels to Sunderland following their mid-week Champions
League exertions against Sporting Braga. Last season Sunderland defeated
Arsenal 1-0 at the Stadium of Light in a shock result and after beating
big spenders Manchester City there this season, they will be confident
of another three points against the Gunners. Arsenal have been pretty
good this season as well, currently sitting in second place in the table
behind Chelsea and they will be sure of claiming all three points as
well.
This is another game we see goals in and we’re backing +2.5 goals @ 1.78 at Sportsbetting.com.
The
previously mentioned Manchester City are in action on Sunday as they
travel Nor...
[More]
Posted Wednesday, September 15, 2010 04:39 AM
In the weeks leading up to the kickoff of the new NFL season,
sportsbook offered lines on win totals for each team. These “Season Win Total” plays are always popular with the sports betting public.
However,
with the advent of free agency and so much movement and parity
interjected into the league these days, there is a sense it has become
more difficult for bettors to handicap individual teams on a
year-to-year basis.
With one week in the books we’ve now had a
chance to see the first teamers respond to different playbooks, new
teammates and coaching changes. Its knowledge we can use for betting
sides and totals on the Week 2 card, but there is another option
available that could offer even more value.
One sportsbook,
Sportsbetting.com, is giving bettors a chance to make plays on Adjusted
‘Season Win Totals’ with revised pricing based on Week 1 results.
So
now you can apply some of the things you learned opening week to
handicapping these bets, something that hasn’t been an option in the
past.
Favorites came out of Week 1 with a 10-6 straight-up (SU)
record and for the six teams that were upset, this could be a viewed as a
good buying opportunity as the loss gets swept under the carpet and
these teams prepare for Round 2.
One play you might want to look
at is the San Diego Chargers (Over 10 -120). The defending AFC West
champs we...
[More]
Posted Wednesday, September 15, 2010 12:57 AM
The second night of Champions League football this week arguably has
more anticipated clashes than last night. Where does the betting value
lie? Let’s look at some selections.
Real Madrid v Ajax:
Europe’s
big spenders take on the former European Cup holders from the
Netherlands in a match that sees last year’s Champions League winning
manager get back into action. Can Jose Mourinho get his attempt to win a
second successive Champions League title off with a win?
Bet365
make Real Madrid the 1.30 favourites to claim all three points, with
Ajax available at 9.50 and the draw can be backed at odds of 5.50.
Neither
of these two sides have looked particularly impressive at the start of
the seasons, with Real Madrid having scored just one goal in their first
two league matches and Ajax struggling to get into the Champions
League. Real are undefeated in La Liga under Jose Mourinho with a draw
and a win under their belt, but the highlight is that Mourinho has
worked his magic already and Real are yet to concede a goal. Ajax were
lucky to reach this point of the tournament, having overcome Greek side
PAOK on away goals and beaten Dynamo Kiev 3-2 on aggregate in the
qualifiers. However, they are joint top of the Dutch league having gone
unbeaten for five league matches, winning four and drawing one, but can
they remain unbeaten against massive superior opposition that the team...
[More]
Posted Tuesday, September 14, 2010 08:07 AM
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Champions
League Picks
The Champions Leagus returns to action this
mid-week, but who will start off their campaigns with a victory and the three
points? Let’s preview two of the opening Tuesday’s fixtures.
Group
A - FC Twente v Inter Milan:
The reigning champions kick off the defence
of their Champions League title in the Netherlands at the home of last
season’s Dutch league champions. They were slow out of the blocks last season,
but can they collect all three points first time around this season? Sportsbooks
make Inter the odds on favourites to win the match at 1.85, with Twente
available at odds of 4.50 and the draw can be backed at 3.40.
This season, Twente started off the defence
of their domestic league title slowly as the... [More]
Posted Monday, September 13, 2010 09:21 AM
Ravens at Jets and Chargers at Chiefs
What better way to cap off Week 1 then with a Monday Night Football doubleheader!
Sunday
featured its share of hard hits and upsets and tonight promises to
deliver more of the same when Baltimore stops in at the new Meadowlands
Stadium.
BALTIMORE AT NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -2.5
Over/Under: 35.5
Sportsbook
opened this game at New York -3 but the Darrelle Revis holdout and
65-70 percent support from Ravens backers edged this line off the key
number down to -2.5.
Both of these teams finished last season at
9-7 straight-up (SU) and put up a good fight in the playoffs. Key
additions to the offense will bolster the attack but the edge in QB has
to go to the Ravens. Joe Flacco is in his third year and having a
legitimate downfield threat in WR Boldin will stretch the field for a
passing game that ranked 18th overall last year.
Mark Sanchez was
prone to turnovers and rookie mistakes in 2009 and the absence of WR
Holmes (suspension) won’t help. New York will look to its ground game to
take pressure away from Sanchez but this Ravens defense ranked first
overall at limiting yards per carry.
New York also saw their
leading rusher RB Jones leave for Kansas City; although RB Greene did
show he was ready to take over. Veteran RB Tomlinson will also help and
LT showed in preseason he still has ...
[More]
Posted Thursday, September 09, 2010 03:03 AM
The long wait is over. The rosters have been cut, practice squads set and now the games actually count.
The
NFL serves up a true marquee matchup to kick everything off, as the
Vikings head back to the scene of the crime when they visit the New
Orleans Saints.
Sportsbook have been seeing heavy action on this one as the game gets closer.
The
last time Minnesota played here it was the NFC Conference Championship
game and we all remember how that finished for Favre and crew. Although
those bettors who backed Minny in that one were able to smile as they
cached in, playing the underdog at +4 in a 31-28 loss.
The
Vikings are underdogs again, this time by 5 points. They will play
without standout WR Sydney Rice, but otherwise have their usual
assortment of weapons (Adrian Peterson, Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin).
The
defending Super Bowl champs, as stated, are laying 5 points in this
game as they are again touted as one of a handful of Super Bowl
contenders. The team is mostly in tact, with the exception of safety
Darren Sharper, who was placed on the PUP list with a knee injury.
Will
the Saints enter the game with the dreaded Super Bowl hangover? Or will
they be fired up looking to defend their title? Will the Vikings avenge
the Conference Final loss from last season? Or will they start the
season the same way it ended last year? It s...
[More]
Posted Thursday, September 02, 2010 02:48 AM
We’re a week away from the kick-off
to the real 2010-2011 season, as the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans
Saints prepare to start it all next Thursday night. However, before
those festivities take us into the new season, there are still a few
questions that need answering during the Week 4 preseason.
Let’s look at the betting action on a few of the games from the final week of the exhibition schedule.
Washington at Arizona
Who
cares about this one? Let’s start with Willie Parker and Matt
Leinart…and maybe Albert Haynesworth. Actually Albert probably doesn’t
really care, but it is worth noting that everyone on the Redskins 1st
team defense is getting the night off, but Haynesworth is expected to
start and get a lot of playing time in this one.
On
offense, Willie Parker will start at RB, but for him, this is more
likely a showcase for other teams needing depth at running back, as it
looks improbable that he will make the ‘Skins.
For
the Cardinals, rumors are swirling that they’re actively shopping QB
Matt Leinart. Look for Anderson to start behind center as they try and
get a handle on that messy QB situation.
But bettors still like the home side, with 65% of the action at the ... [More]