UFC 102 Odds and Picks:
A fight in UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira that holds a lot of interest
for me is the Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski match-up.
This
is a light heavyweight fight that will solidly place one of these
fighters on the track towards the title. While Vera looked like he was
on his way in the heavyweight division once, he eventually dropped
weight to light heavyweight.
He
was expected to start chewing up competition. So far, he has yet to
dazzle and we are patiently waiting for him to make his break here.
He's 10-3. While Vera is definitely talented and skilled, we're just
waiting for consistently capable.
Overall,
he remains quick, dangerous and threatening. Vera's fan's know he has
devastating and somewhat unorthodox muay thai and a solid ground game
to round himself out. We recognize his talent and we can see the
potential in Vera, we just hope that he can put it all together.
Fighting against Soszynski will definitely give him a chance to show us
how seriously we should take him.
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On the other hand, Soszynski has had great exposure through "The Ultimate Fighter" and hasn't disappointed yet. While Soszynski's been around, but he's a fairly new face in the UFC. His overall record is 18-8-1 and in the UFC he's 3-0.
He's
fought under a few different promotions, most notably IFL and had some
exposure on Strikeforce. This will be Soszynski's second time on the
main card PPV. I believe this is an excellent opportunity for
Soszynski. His fans believe in him.
So
does Dan Henderson. Soszynski's a humorous, well spoken guy that people
are noticing. If he keeps submitting with authority and showing us his
knock-out capability - like he did when he KO'd Andre Gusmao at UFC 98
- he'll definitely have the momentum to start challenging for a
contender position.
When
asked about Vera, Soszynski said, "He's probably the first person in
the UFC that I'm fighting that's really well-rounded, from striking to
wrestling to his jiu-jitsu. It's going to be a huge test for me, but
I'm really excited for the opportunity. I'm looking forward to this
fight. I think it's going to be fireworks. We're going to stand and
bang and see what happens."
I
expect Vera's takedown defense to be sharp Saturday night, as Soszynski
is quite comfortable on the ground. I think Soszynski is showing some
maturity here in the pre-fight game because I really don't think he
would want to stand and trade with Vera. I think he would much rather
press for the take him down and use his size and strength to control
Vera while looking for the submission.
I
expect Vera to look like the early aggressor and gain control of the
stand-up, but I think Soszynski will weather it and get him down to
control him from the top.
I'm
putting another win in the column for Soszynski. Second round
submission, I almost said by decision. Either way, money's on
Soszynski. I like this underdog bet.