scottshapell's Blog

Day 8 Wimbledon tennis picks

By scottshapell | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, June 30, 2009 09:03 AM   0 comments

A look at the top picks for today's quarterfinals action on the ladies side of the draw at Wimbledon....

WOMEN'S QUARTER FINALS

Venus Williams v Agnieska Radwanska


Head-to-head: Williams leads 3-1; never met on grass

Last Meeting: Williams won 6/1, 6/2 at Rome 07/05/09

Venus Williams has been making serene progress through the draw as she looks to claim a third successive Venus Rosewater Dish and a sixth in total. After four matches she has dropped just 16 games and extended her winning streak at SW19 to 18 matches with the last 15 coming in straight sets. She has won each of her matches so far this year by at least seven clear games and back to the 2000 Championships has won all eight of her matches against 6-16 seeds with six wins by six or more games.

Agnieska Radwanska has lost half her six Wimbledon matches against seeded players and in particular three of four against top eight seeds. Each of these three defeats was by seven or more games. As well as her heavy defeat against Venus in Rome back in May she was also thrashed at the US Open in the last 16 last year – winning just four games – and similarly managed to win just four games in each of her two meetings with Serena Williams. Her record in quarter-finals of Tier One and Grand Slam events does not make good reading as she has gone W1-L7 with all seven defeats in straight sets and six by at least a six game margin. Furthermore she has lost 15 of her last 20 matches against top 10 players in straight sets.

Recommendation: Venus Williams to win -5.5 games – awaiting prices


Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka

Head-to-head: Williams leads 2-1; never met on grass

Last Meeting: Azarenka won 6/3, 6/1 at Miami 04/04/09

Serena Williams is yet to be tested at Wimbledon this year but she does not have the greatest record in Grand Slam quarter-finals having W12-L7 from 2002 onwards, compared to W11-L1 in the semi-finals during this time. Williams has won the first set in just four of her 10 Wimbledon matches from the quarter-finals on against top-eight seeds, with two of those first set wins coming via a tie-break.

Victoria Azarenka has an excellent record against the top players for an emerging player, having lost only 11 of her last 19 matches against top-10 players and four of seven against top-five. Of the seven matches against top-five players she has failed to take a set only once. She also has a good record in the later stages of tournaments having won five of her six Tier One quarter-finals although she did lose her only Grand Slam quarter. Azarenka has won the first set in nine of her 11 Wimbledon matches – losing the other two 6/4 and 7/6. Azarenka has won the first set in seven of her 11 matches this year against players currently in the top 10 – including both matches against Serena Williams – with one first set loss coming in a tie-break.

Recommendation: Azarenka 1st Set Handicap – awaiting prices


Elena Dementieva v Francesca Schiavone

Head-to-head: All-square 4-4; never met on grass

Last Meeting: Dementieva won 5/7, 7/5, 6/2 at Dubai 29/02/08

Elena Dementieva has won the opening set by three or more games in 24 of the 45 matches she has played since the start of the Dubai Tennis Championships in February 2008 last year where she has been 1.15-1.50 to win. Dementieva has won the opening set by three or more games in 13 of her 22 Wimbledon matches against non-seeds since the start of 2002 and has also done so in four of her six matches since moving onto the grass this year.

Francesca Schiavone has lost the opening set in six of her last seven matches against top-10 players, losing in straight sets five times. Against players currently in the top-10 she has lost the first set by three or more games in half her last 10 matches back to the start of May last year. This will be her first Grand Slam quarter-final for almost six years having last made it this far at the US Open in 2003.

Non-seeds have only upset top-five seeds once in 11 matches past the last 16 at Wimbledon since 1997 (Anna Kournikova against Iva Majoli in the QF in 1997). Six of the 11 first sets were won by a margin of three or more games by the seed.

Recommendation: Dementieva to win the first set – awaiting handicap prices


Sabine Lisicki v Dinara Safina

Head-to-head: Lisicki leads 1-0; never met on grass

Last Meeting: Lisicki won 7/6, 4/6, 6/2 at Australian Open ‘08 15/01/08

Sabine Lisicki has won seven of her last nine matches against players ranked 1-20 including four wins in her last five matches against top-10 players. Lisicki has won eight of her last 11 matches when she has been the underdog and won the only Tier One quarter-final she has ever been in before going on to take the title in Charleston back in April.

Dinara Safina has reached the quarter-finals at Wimbledon for the first time having never previously been beyond the third round. Seeded players have a surprisingly poor record against non-seeds from the fourth round on when they have dropped a set in their previous match. In this situation the seeded player has won eight and lost seven times in the previous 12 years.

Recommendation: Lisicki to win 3.5, Stan James

0 comments
comment Post A Comment
Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 
Advertisement