scsiegel89's Blog

Week 1 Preseason Line: 49ers @ Colts

By scsiegel89 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, May 03, 2010 01:02 PM   99 comments
For the past 5 years, Peyton Manning has played one-two series at most in the opening game before being benched. After Peyton Manning steps out of the game, the players DO NOT CARE ONE BIT about winning. This year, I will be placing a HUGE WAGER on the 49ers no matter the line. The Colts back-up QB's this year include Curtis "Mr. Fumbilitis" Painter and Drew Willy who they just elevated from their practice squad. Jim Sorgi left to sit behind the other Manning.  Jim Caldwell, like his predecessor Mr. Dungy, could care less about pre-season games. He has absolutely no interesting in winning the game as it is meaningless in his opinion. All he wants is the health of his starters to be in tact. 

I could care less about the lack of talent in the backups of the 49ers, because once Manning goes out, the Colts will score 3-7 points the rest of the game.

Don't believe me? check out the previous history of Colts opening games

2009: Home against the Favre-less Vikings: LOSS 3-13
2008: HOF game against Redskins neutral territory: LOSS 16-30
2007: @Cowboys: LOSS 10-23
2006: @ Rams: LOSS 17-19 (Colts did cover as the line went from Rams -2 to -3. Late kick and a crazy ending)
2005: Home against Atlanta Falcons: LOSS 21-27

Colts are 0-5 in their last 5 opening pre-season games covering only once. Do you see them making any difference with Curtis Painter and Drew Willy Wonka? I think not...

I'm guessing this line will be 49ers -3 and I will pound it hard, all day, and long.

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scsiegel89 says:
05/04/10 10:23AM
anyone else bet against the Colts pre-season? its money...
scsiegel89 says:
05/13/10 11:48PM
nobody? really?
yuice20 says:
05/14/10 12:16AM
training camp hasn't even started yet. its a little to early for discussion
markp851 says:
05/14/10 06:27AM
one of the best bets of the year...
Greyhound says:
05/14/10 08:28AM
And you think the oddsmakers don't know everything you said in this post?   





"I will be placing a huge wager on the 49ers no matter the line"    




That's something that a novice gambler says.   
scsiegel89 says:
05/14/10 06:54PM


I'm glad that you have your opinion on this matter, but I completely disagree. Either way, no need to be a dick.
dytide says:
05/15/10 12:37AM

It's probably been money to go against the Colts in the pre-season since their depth chart has pretty much been set.

I would read up about any position battles taking place in camp before making a large pre-season wager against them.

( I know RB is one of them )

ps. Colts also signed QB Tim Hiller out of Western Michigan

 

ratherBgambling says:
05/15/10 02:27AM

scsiegel89 says:
05/15/10 12:36PM
all im saying is that i've made this bet this past four years and won. I will continue making this bet until Peyton Manning retires. When the time comes, I will bump this thread with my wager and we shall see.
scsiegel89 says:
05/17/10 06:38PM
The colts signed Tim Hiller out of western michigan. I think this just confirms my bet. Once Peyton leaves after the first or second series, the Colts will not score and will be turnover prone the rest of the game. Meanwhile, Coach Caldwell is more concerned about dinner reservations rather than the outcome of the game.
scsiegel89 says:
05/17/10 06:40PM


as noted above, the colts signed Tim Hiller out of western michigan. 
I think this just

confirms my bet even more. Once Peyton leaves after the first or second series,

the Colts will not score and will be turnover prone the rest of the

game. Meanwhile, Coach Caldwell is more concerned about dinner

reservations rather than the outcome of the game.

TheBT says:
05/19/10 04:03PM
I appreciate the heads-up and will be checking the line when it comes out (can't wait for the NFL to start back up)... 
scsiegel89 says:
05/19/10 06:33PM


me too pal. as soon as the line posts, or I see it posted, I will let everyone know.
scsiegel89 says:
05/25/10 06:21PM
hopefully Peyton doesn't reach the 2014 superbowl in NY.
scsiegel89 says:
06/08/10 12:40PM
still no line out on pre-season games
Sharp__Action says:
06/10/10 01:58AM




Agree 100%, total polar opposites as to how to approach the season between these two HC's/organizations.

One looks to have his younng guys giving it 110% every game out, and playing for a spot on the roster..... the other has been a force to reckon with for awhile and chooses to play their best football down the stretch, late in the season, and rest guys. Colts never give a shit about preseason, too many injuries have riddled them to do that.

Like the play also, at -4 or less.
scsiegel89 says:
06/10/10 07:31PM
i love this play and I will be booking it hard as hell when the line comes out. I don't really care what the line is, but I can't see it being more than 4 because it is still @ Indianapolis. If it's 4 I will be very happy
scsiegel89 says:
06/13/10 10:52AM
I don't recall when they release the pre-season lines. If my memory serves me right, its sometime in late july which means i'm going to be waiting a long time to place this bet
rod_steel says:
06/13/10 01:09PM
Would you still bet it if the 49ers were listed as 8.5 point favs?
Jayhawk11 says:
06/13/10 04:12PM

Less then 2 months away, I can hardyl wait.

gilligansisland says:
06/13/10 06:29PM

I love this play.Colts couldn't care less who wins. I also think this could work with the NE Pats.Really these teams do not care if they win the first preseason game.Manning and Brady will barely get a sniff of the field.

scsiegel89 says:
06/13/10 06:37PM


I have not followed this trend close enough with the Pats organization as I have the Colts. I can not recommend that play as strong as I love betting against the Colts. Best of luck though and thanks for commenting.
scsiegel89 says:
06/13/10 07:28PM


i'm not sure if you graduated from 4th grade, but what the hell are you saying? I'm pretty sure that is not even a complete thought.
scsiegel89 says:
06/15/10 12:19PM
anybody know when lines are released?
Yavapai says:
06/16/10 03:59PM

preseason week 1 lines now come out later and later.

Maybe august 1st?

scsiegel89 says:
06/16/10 08:44PM


yah that's what i thought. wish they would come out a little sooner, but i understand how many variables are still left up in the air...
dl36 says:
07/19/10 06:09AM
This is a decent angle/trend/historical play....

there are 3 factors to consider...

1. Money management

You got a long season ahead of you and perhaps better games to put alot of money on...  If you lose big in week 1 of the pre-season, it might effect the rest of your season... 

2. The scoring/total

If you are giving -3 then this might equate more with giving -7 based on the pre-season and lack of manning resulting in a very low scoring game... There was only 16 total points scored in IND's 1st game of the preseason last year...

3. The other team (SF)

You are making your pick based on history, lets look at SF's history in game 1 of the preseason  in the last three years...

2009: DEN 16 SF 17
2008: SF 6 OAK 18
2007: DEN 17 SF 13

So based on averages you are looking at SF losing 17 to 12....

another thing to consider with SF averaging 12 points a game in week 1 of the preseason is that if you see IND scoring 3 times or more (which occurred  with opposing offenses in all three seasons), you will likely not cover your -3....


dl36 says:
07/20/10 01:06AM


I am guessing less then 5 years experience in serious betting on NFL...
BigEastExpert says:
08/15/10 10:32PM
Greyhound says:
08/02/10 05:01PM

I know nobody is going to convince you otherwise.   You're mind was made up a long time ago even before the line came out.    And nothing will change that.    



Something tells me the rest of us might have a nice fade on the Niners to start the season.       

Greyhound says:
08/02/10 05:06PM

The line could be Niners -10  and that still wouldn't stop you from betting the Niners.    

Greyhound says:
08/02/10 02:52PM

I'd do some research on Tom Brandstater if I was you.     From what I can tell some Broncos fans thought he was pretty good.    And Bill Polian snapped him up pretty quickly once he was on waivers.    Polian might be the best GM in the NFL.    

He played decently in a couple preseason games for the Broncos last year.     

Greyhound says:
08/02/10 03:28PM

June 7, 2010

Colts claimed QB Tom Brandstater off waivers from the Broncos.

Brandstater, 25, gives Indy a fifth quarterback behind Peyton Manning, Curtis Painter, Drew Willy, and undrafted rookie Tim Hiller. How quickly he picks up the scheme will likely determine whether Brandstater makes the roster. He's a superior talent to Willy and Hiller, and arguably Painter.


Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter
Greyhound says:
08/02/10 03:35PM

Sep. 4 2:13 PM ET -

Brandstater turned in a solid dress rehearsal. Next up just may be the real thing. With Denver's top two quarterbacks injured, Brandstater stepped in and guided the Broncos to a 19-0 win over the Arizona Cardinals in the preseason finale Thursday night.


Analysis: In a composed and effective performance, Brandstater completed 16 of 30 passes for 187 yards, and led the Broncos to scores on four of their first five possessions. The only blemish for the sixth-round draft pick out of Fresno State was an interception by Michael Adams just before halftime. Still, Brandstater could be a star in the making like Tony Rono of the Cowboys.
Greyhound says:
08/02/10 03:40PM

Sep. 1 5:29 PM ET -

With the Denver Broncos' top two quarterbacks sidelined by injuries, rookie Brandstater will start the team's preseason finale Thursday night against Arizona.


Analysis:  Brandstater played more than a half in Sunday's 27-17 loss to Chicago, leading the Broncos to two touchdowns after coming in for the injured Kyle Orton.
dytide says:
08/12/10 03:01AM
bump
dytide says:
08/15/10 10:30PM
credit where credit is due....

scsiegel89 called this shot on May 3rd

well done my brother  
markp851 says:
08/15/10 06:54PM



Good call by you + me
Urban says:
08/14/10 02:33AM

What do you guys think about Glen Coffee leaving?

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-49erscamp

How will this affect the play?

scsiegel are you still confident in the niners covering?

Urban says:
07/20/10 11:24AM
I am with you on this. Hopefully start the season out with a bang
Urban says:
08/01/10 12:31AM
SF -3  lets pound this beotch!
luckyly says:
07/07/10 11:06AM
WELL THE TIME IS GETTIN CLOSER..LOVE PRE.GAMES..LOTS OF UNDERS..LOTS OF DOGS...BASH THE MAN
tommymon says:
07/02/10 03:42PM
Sweet deal on Tebow Jersey on Ebay!  At $16.50 right now.

I already have one!

PrimeTimeBoys says:
08/10/10 01:55PM
Like the write-up & will be placing some money on the 49ers as well. Good luck with your huge wager! 
HeadOverHeart says:
07/13/10 12:42PM
Looking at the Colts pre-season lines is the only thing I do on a consistent basis in the NFL Preseason.

siegel is right on here...
HeadOverHeart says:
07/17/10 04:12PM


I really have no idea.  Maybe Colts -4.5 throwing a guess out there.
Bengalfan9 says:
07/13/10 11:59AM

Betting against COLTS in Preseason

scsiegel89 says:
07/17/10 01:23PM


. cant wait till they release the line. what do you think it will be?
scsiegel89 says:
07/17/10 11:20PM


In my opinion, there is NO chance that the Colts are favored in this game. The Colts pre-season losing track record is known and many people will probably be taking the 49ers. I believe the 49ers will be 2.5pt favorites at the minimum.

But then again, I could be completely wrong. I would love to see the Colts favored by 4.5 as I would hit the 49ers ML as well
scsiegel89 says:
07/01/10 10:57AM
just read an article about mike singletary and his demanding work ethic, not that i didn't already know about this....
scsiegel89 says:
07/18/10 11:17PM


. i completely agree. i hope it opens at 2.5 to be perfectly honest
scsiegel89 says:
08/01/10 01:55PM
SF -3.5 +105 @ 5dimes is my official play. Can't wait till game-day!
scsiegel89 says:
08/01/10 03:03PM


hope you take 3.5 @ +105. The Colts will NOT score more than 6-10 points.
scsiegel89 says:
07/20/10 08:42AM


. I don't even know who you are and that's the best part. I'll see you at the cashier
scsiegel89 says:
07/20/10 08:45AM


Not sure if you understand the differing philosophies of these organizations. Mike Singletary will have his players playing to WIN, while Jim Caldwell will have his players ready for pizza after the ball game.

That right there does it for me.
scsiegel89 says:
07/20/10 10:23AM


and you would have guessed wrong, but nice try
scsiegel89 says:
07/20/10 12:20PM


BOL Urban
scsiegel89 says:
08/01/10 08:01PM
yah i was pretty much on the mark with this line when i posted this in early May.
scsiegel89 says:
08/01/10 08:38PM
the real question is whether or not Tom Brandstater can challenge Curtis Painter for the back-up quarter back position. Painter was miserable in every appearance for the Colts last season, but maybe he has improved a little bit during the off-season. Regardless, Manning is the GLUE that gels the entire offense. Without him, all of their wide-receivers become MASSIVELY over-rated. Neither Brandstater or Painter can put the kind of touch and accuracy that Manning displays on a regular basis under the intense pass-rush the Colts typically face, as their running game is awful.
scsiegel89 says:
08/02/10 02:32PM
its up to +110 for 49ers -3.5 @ 5dimes currently.
scsiegel89 says:
08/02/10 04:51PM
he may have played decently last year, but that does not dispute the fact that the Colts management couldn't give two shits less about winning games in the pre-season. If there is a fourth and short early in the game, Caldwell will send in the punting unit. This type of philosophy is dramatically different than Mike Singeltary's 49ers who will be looking to win. Their motivation in this game should easily will them to victory over the hapless Colts.
scsiegel89 says:
08/10/10 02:35PM


THX PTB

Lets get this
scsiegel89 says:
08/02/10 05:28PM


come on let's be realistic now...
scsiegel89 says:
08/08/10 10:11AM
little over one week away
scsiegel89 says:
08/14/10 01:03PM

Urban,

To me, this means absolutely nothing because the bottom line still has not changed. The Colts have no interest in winning, while Mike Singeltary will have his guys fired up to win. The Colts offensive line stinks and only works because they are glued together by Peyton Manning. Once he goes out, the Colts QB's will FUMBLE and I can personally GUARANTEE 2 of them.

Not only am I confident Urban, but I placed my bet at -3.5 at +110. The Colts will score with Manning, but after that they still will not score. That has not changed one bit.

 

BOL

scsiegel89 says:
08/16/10 12:53AM
thx guys i guess i just got really lucky
earl1932 says:
08/15/10 04:08PM
YOU FLAT NAILED THIS.....I THOUGHT ALL ALONG IT WAS A BOOKIE TRAP...........How many suckers did it cost them
cc247 says:
08/14/10 01:21PM
Very seldom do you see a road team favored by this many points during

the preseason. The reason is the quarterback rotation and the 49ers have

a major edge once the Colts replace Peyton Manning in the first quarter

of this afternoon game. After Manning expect to see a combination of

Curtis Painter, Tom Brandstater, and Tom Hiller. Longtime back-up QB Jim

Sorgi has moved onto the Giants to play under Eli Manning and that

leaves a major void for the Colts once Manning is out of the game.

Curtis Painter had limited action late during the regular season last

year and played terrible. The 49ers have Alex Smith and David Carr as

their first two quarterbacks and both of them have started many games in

the league. That will allow them to be up at halftime and coast to a

victory in the second half. Mike Singletary is 3-1 in preseason action

during his tenure. Jim Caldwell is 1-3 in his four preseason games.

PeterPoker says:
08/15/10 04:18PM
 
Doxshund says:
08/14/10 03:37AM
Colts will be missing their center as well plus left tackle and Dallas Clark.
Manning will probably just play 1 series.
K4ngur13 says:
08/14/10 04:29PM
SCROG says:
07/18/10 02:54PM
Colts are 1-8 ats in final preseason game as well..
SCROG says:
07/18/10 02:57PM
Make that 1-7 ats last 8 years in game 4 of preseason. Correction.
Skubishack says:
07/06/10 04:35PM
I give you pre-season winner..... ALWAYS take Jets over Eagles. They play every year and I can't remember When the Eagles last beat the Jets in the preseason. Eagles fan for life here and I make money on the game every season. I'm not saying take the spread... Just the ML. Works every year.
Skubishack says:
07/06/10 04:36PM
HA,ha,ha.... I didn't even see you post Zeke... I read the original post only. Well... at least you backed up the Jets thing. Good Luck
TheBallDontLie says:
07/17/10 11:58PM
im thinking it opens at niners -3
SilvioDante says:
07/17/10 02:08PM
luky_kyle says:
08/12/10 03:02AM
sharpstick says:
07/19/10 07:24PM
This guy is a clown....

He tells people not to be a dick, then refers to people as 4th graders and other insults.

Your thoughts are based on a 5 game example?  That's gonna be your biggest wager? 

The other poster was right.... saying you're going to make a bet regardless of the line is EXACTLY what a novice gambler says.

Come to Vegas, I'll happily book all your action at -105 for football.

(Maximum of $5,000 per bet after establishing yourself with me)
TheBT says:
08/15/10 04:15PM
Good call, thanks man! 
Travel2GetCash says:
08/01/10 06:14PM

vchamcharas says:
08/15/10 03:45PM
Thank you..Thank you..Thank you.. that all i can say
gmitran says:
08/16/10 01:15PM
DoubleUp4Life says:
08/16/10 09:32AM

Nice Job Brother

Thanks for the $50....

This will be the only preseason Game I bet this season

scsiegel89 says:
08/16/10 04:17AM



scsiegel89 says:
08/16/10 11:12AM


same here buddy. i only bet 1 pre-season game and this is the one.
scsiegel89 says:
05/05/11 01:39AM
this logic applies to week 1 colts @ rams. eerily similar situation. young coach young team wanting to win game. Rams Depth is much greater and talented than Colts. Teams philosophies in the pre-season couldn't be further apart. I'll pound the Rams up to 6, but I'm assuming it will open 4/4.5
scsiegel89 says:
08/16/10 01:05PM


i'm pretty sure i said this three months ago, but thank you for confirming it.
scsiegel89 says:
05/31/11 02:39AM
wow its kind of funny re-reading through this thread and seeing how supportive some people were, while others were complete pricks for no reason at all. Oh well. It's funny how none of them ever showed back up to say anything.
scsiegel89 says:
07/22/11 05:00PM



scsiegel89 says:
08/12/11 04:41PM
oh I called this last year as well? I must have no idea what I'm talking about
scsiegel89 says:
08/12/11 05:42PM


Incorrect. 2008 he was hurt. Obviously they want to improve their blocking, every team wants to. But can they? Especially because of the lockout, I don't think so. It will be a major struggle
Professional1 says:
08/16/10 01:42AM
SCROG says:
05/31/11 09:40PM
Love the play.
mafioso says:
07/23/11 05:04PM

yes, many were supportive to your thread, including some of us with a little something you appear to be missing, and thats a little something called Class.

 

As you see above, I posted on your thread congratulating you even though I was on the other side of the game.

That was done because

1) Overall we are all trying to beat the man, were on the same team wether we like it or not.

 

2) What you seem to lack (CLASS)

 

3) Credit where credit is due, you went out on a limb and you would have looked like what I beleive you still are (A Village idiot) if you were wrong and a genious if you were right, and right you were and you deserve all the praises.

 

4) it was for most of us who take the preseason a-lot less seriously a preseason game, Most of us didnt lose more than a hundred dollars on the game, While you had most of your bankroll bet on it, so Yes, we, I didnt mind losing a bet knowing someone who had 30 to 40 times more money on the other side. Once again its called having CLASS.

 

Good luck this year too, maybe you can show what you lacked a few weeks ago should you win this one, I again will be rooting for you since you go out on a limb on a presseaon game, good luck and try to win or lose with a little CLASS

mafioso says:
08/16/10 06:08AM
Ill congratulate you, You called it all the way, Myself I went with Indy, had too, everyone and their mothers were on the 49ers and line hardly moved, Like I said, Congratulations
Gunner10 says:
08/16/10 01:04PM
Do NOT play on the Colts in the pre-season.
trying2makeabuk says:
08/12/11 05:11PM

every game isnt the same so i dont see the point of bumping this thread cause you were right bout a preseason game. things change, game planning change, players change.

trying2makeabuk says:
08/12/11 05:30PM
yeah and peyton has been hurt for 2 training camps in a row. i think the colts will be lookin for a suitable #2 quarterback. his injuries has proven that he isnt superman. also last year was the most times peyton has ever been hit during a season. i guarantee they'll be using this game to improve their blocking
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User: scsiegel89
Joined: December 2007
Location: Indiana
Team: Denver Broncos
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

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