Critique My Method (NHL)

Ladies and Gentlemen,

This will be my first full season working with NHL data.  I'm using a formula very similar to the MLB underdog formula which has worked extremely well for me for the last two years.  I compare the road team's average points scored on the road against the home team's avg points allowed at home, and vice versa, and then have a second formula that weighs the net performance of the team against their strength of schedule to get an output similar to Sagarin's rankings.

The final step is a comparison of my expectations to the line in an attempt to find a moneyline value. 

In short, we're looking for underdogs with a big ML but a reasonable chance of upset.  The determination of value is made by dividing the ML into 50%, which tells me the frequency of wins necessary to break even.  There is an extensive discussion of my method in this regard on my thread 'Critique my Method (MLB)'.

In MLB I started off with a progressive method, and used this to great success.  However, due to binomial distribution, you're bound to end up with some long losing streaks, and this can lead to some big bets. 

Therefore, I'm going to attempt to increase the total number of events and stick with a fixed-amount per event.  The upside is we eliminate the risk inherent in any progressive system, the downside is you lose the benefit of eliminating losses with an immediately succeeding win, a rather frequent oc... [More]

Critique My Method (NBA)

I've got enough data now to begin sharing my NBA picks.  I've posted extensively on my methods during the MLB and NFL seasons.  No touting here, I'm just posting my daily picks as I play them.

The model is logical regression.   10 seasons of data are used to formulate the model, then tested against current season data to determine the mean error, bias, etc.

Reminder:  I recommend a 50 unit bankroll, that's 2% per event, and I focus on the maximum number of opportunities.  I don't shop lines, I pick from one of three books I use.  The lines available to you may be better or worse.

Cleveland -7
Detroit -4.5
Chicago +1

Critique my Method (NFL)

Those who have been following my MLB thread ‘Critique my Method’ will be familiar with my strategies and money management method.  Last year I did very well with the NFL, but of course making money in the NFL is different from MLB so I’ll explain a few things.

A brief overview of my strategy: I look at offensive pass efficiency less sacks vs  defensive pass efficiency plus sacks, offensive run efficiency vs defensive run efficiency, offensive interception rate vs defensive interception rate, offensive fumble rate, penalty yards per play and home field advantage.  Then I calculate a ‘strength of schedule’ rating and finally, I look at the spread. 

My first look at the line is to look for statistical advantages or disadvantages.  This is purely statistical, e.g., 1 in 6 NFL games last year ended in a 3 point margin, but only 3% ended in a 5 point margin.  So, I compare the probability of win and the likely margin of win against the line.  Remember that the line is based not simply on the bookmaker’s expectation of game performance, but on public betting as well, and line movement of even half can significantly alter the value of the bet.

There isn’t much subjective about my approach.  I don’t follow the teams closely enough to know about personnel issues or drama, although occasionally if I hear about a significant change I will ignore the game altogether, but don’t count on that as a factor because my formula is bas... [More]