sean2114's Blog

Flyers @ +468 in Game 6.... $350 to win $1.638... What to do

By sean2114 | View all Posts
Posted Monday, June 07, 2010 07:38 PM   32 comments

If you read my other thread you know that I have a matchbook account and some people screwed up last after the 1st intermission thinking that market was an in-game market instead of the market for game 6. Bottom line i now have $350 to win $1.638 on the flyers on Wednesday night.

So my question is what should I do:

1.) Lay it off evenly and take my roughly $700 of free money.

2.) Lay off just the $350 or a little more and have a sizeable free bet to win on the Flyers.

3.) Lay off most of it on the Hawks and have a sizeable free bet on the Hawks.

I am really torn here, on the one side a free $700 is very nice to my bankroll (i have been cold so my bankroll has reverted to a grand) and that same note I lean Philly and could easily cancel out the $350 and essentially have the Flyers risking $0 to win $1,300 and double up my bankroll in one night if they win. It is going to be a long two days trying to decide what to do.

32 comments
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SportsGuruX says:
06/07/10 08:19PM

LET IT RIDE.

 

FLYERS GOT THIS!

billyweather says:
06/07/10 08:44PM

 

 

 

 

   LEIGHTON   

Johnboy85 says:
06/07/10 09:29PM
Normally hedging is a bad move, but in this case, with the Flyers goaltending being what it is, I might have to take the free money and run.
andarmac99 says:
06/07/10 09:40PM


You do realize Niemi has sucked in 4 of the 5 games in this series?
Johnboy85 says:
06/07/10 09:45PM


Of course I realize that, but whereas Niemi has at least shown the ability to make game-changing, momentum altering saves, Leighton and Boucher have been unspectacular despite their good numbers.  I think if you could pick between both teams which goalie you wanted for your team, you'd pick Niemi (maybe even Huet.)
Johnnypicks says:
06/07/10 09:52PM
take the free money
SteelUbaldo says:
06/07/10 10:12PM
I would take the free money...But good luck with whatever you decide...
sean2114 says:
06/07/10 10:57PM

i think i am leaning towards the free money, laying it off evenly, now that question becomes what kinda of line can I get.

Madden says:
06/07/10 11:05PM
Take the free money.

Anything can happen on that sloppy ice in Philly.

Nothing sweeter then watching knowing you've already made a profit on it.
sean2114 says:
06/07/10 11:43PM
just put out $900 to win $1,098 on the hawks, if accepted this would give me a little over $700 either way, hopefully it gets accepted
FrozenTundra says:
06/07/10 11:49PM
What I would do is take the hawks pl +1.5 ...yes a juicy ass wager, but you can middle.
JTFinn says:
06/08/10 12:05PM

Personally I would put 2/3 or more on the Hawks.  Alot of juice to try and midlle, but that would be an option.

BOL

sean2114 says:
06/09/10 12:41AM
with the line dropping so is my free money, hoping the line starts to push back up to +120 as we get closer to game time, am actually starting to think about just laying off the risk amount on the hawks and having 0 to win 1,300 prob won't do it unless that price keeps dropping
SportsGuruX says:
06/09/10 01:28AM

LET'S GO FLYERS

Blue_Chips says:
06/09/10 01:49AM

 

That's what I would do, as well.

sean2114 says:
06/09/10 09:03AM
too me the hawks PL is a tough bet to take because if the hawks are leading by one or more late the goalie will be pulled earlier because the flyers will be giving it everything they have. The only way i see a hawks 1 goal victory is in overtime. The problem I am facing is a line that is rapidly dropping. I am thinking about putting 600 on the hawks and near even money, taking my free $250 in the hawks win and collecting over a grand if philly wins, i really think this series goes 7 but the goaltending of the hawks is certainly suspect.
sean2114 says:
06/09/10 09:04AM

sorry i meant flyers, the goaltending of the flyers is certainly suspect

rjjm94 says:
06/09/10 09:56AM
I did the same thing but I hedged it. I actually did this for 3 games in this series and have made about 1,500 doing it.

Chicago at PhiladelphiaMoney LineChicagoChicago at

Philadelphia

Money LinePhiladelphia577.08

rjjm94 says:
06/09/10 09:57AM
Chicago at Philadelphia    Money Line    Chicago    +115    $755.22    $577.50
Chicago at Philadelphia    Money Line    Philadelphia    +458    $291.00    $577.08
rjjm94 says:
06/09/10 09:57AM
no opinion on the game so Ill just take my $577
sean2114 says:
06/09/10 10:06AM

orngcrsh says:
06/09/10 11:46AM
My issue doesn't stray from the topic, so please advise me.

Before playoffs I bet about $15 on Philly's championship, they were +5124 so I may win about $785...

So what should I do now? How should I hedge? I'm really in the spot... Cause If I bet $390 on Chicago today to win about $390, there may be a situation where Flyers wins today and lose in game 7 - in this case I can lose all about the line:/

If there was only one game left it would be easy...

I'm waiting for ideas


sean2114 says:
06/09/10 12:13PM

tought situation because you will be looking at about -175ish on chicago in game 7. without thinking much about it i would probably wager $75 on chi ml tonight then if chicago loses you are down $75 dollars so you can then ride chicago again for 262.50 to win 150 then if chicago loses you have lost 337.50 and would cash 447.50 and if chicago wins in 6 you would lose 15 and win 75 and would cash $60 and if they win in 7 you would have lost $90 and cash 150 so again you would cash $60.

 

orngcrsh says:
06/09/10 12:51PM
Thanks for these calculations, I'm in spot so I'll consider them...




I won't miss 15 bucks man  But I still hope I will win almost 800 for nothing... So I consider not hedging at all too...
orngcrsh says:
06/09/10 12:56PM
I've just contrived an idea... Maybe the best move is to wait for second intermission in game 6 and bet on Chicago in case of their lead...
gastown says:
06/09/10 02:57PM



Just let it ride out. Chicago won't win tonight. You'll piss your money away, and Flyers won't win game 7. Nice $15 investment though.
orngcrsh says:
06/09/10 04:42PM



Yup, nice investment but only if Philly wins both games... And that's why I start thinking how to get anything of it. Now I regret not betting Chicago and Pittsburgh, cause I knew one of these three teams would hoist Lord Stanley...
Johnnypicks says:
06/10/10 10:59AM

I hope you took ur gut feel here...

I missed what you did

sean2114 says:
06/10/10 11:04PM


yeah got greedy
sean2114 says:
06/10/10 06:41PM


ofcourse i didn't i layed 600 on thr hawks at +110, so i pocketed 300, i really thought the flyers were going to force a game 7, if the flyers won i would have cashed a grand
Johnnypicks says:
06/10/10 10:19PM

u had it middled...

ive done it before two...

Johnnypicks says:
06/10/10 10:19PM
shit goal
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