senbet's Blog

Posted Wednesday, March 16, 2011 01:12 PM

This is how I think they come up with opening lines.

They use point differential for the point spread then add 3 points to the home team. This math here is always within a point to start off.

Then they adjust the line according to where the money is going.

Denver +4 point diff.
Atlanta +.6 point diff, round up is one + 3.
Tie game advantage home team.

Boston +6.5 + 3 for the home team so Boston -11
Indy -1.2

Detroit -4.4 + 3
Toronto -5.7
Pistons -5 should be the line

Miami +7.2
OKC +3.1
So you have the Heat by -7.

Just four examples but the math is there. You can find the point diff. on ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/team-comparison-per-game/sort/avgPointsDifference


For totals, I believe the opposing opponent points allowed is used to create the line. But it can by off by 10 points because bettors tend to favor overs I believe. I know ten is a lot but I think when you know public is going to bet the over or under no matter what, you to adjust to make them think about.


Atlanta allow 95 p/g
Denver allows 104 p/g
so 199

I just sharing what I think. Open up discussion, see if there's a system that can be developed from this or a filter of some kind.

I dunno, just something I wanted to share



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User: senbet
Joined: March 2010
Location: Florida
Team: Miami Heat
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