nfl week IV

6-4 +1.93 LW16-9-2 +6.73 YTD
Unders came back in a hurry in week 3, after overs had their run the opening two weeks.
Here are the plays this week:
1:00's
Cinci +3 and ml .8/1.08 
Sure Buffalo is the darling of the league right now, but did ya know that Cinci has the 3rd ranked D in the league? I smell a let down on the road after upsetting NE
ST Louis +3 and ml .8/1.04 
Terrible spot for Wash. The week after Dallas and before the bye and having to prepare on a short week. I can't imagine everyone will be on the same page here vs a desperate Rams team getting Stephen Jackson back. 
Pitt/Hou over 44.5
Pitt's Def is not what it used to be. Texans hold various weapons and can dictate pace. Having Arian Foster will help them stay balanced. 
4:00's 
AZ +1.5 
NY is still not well enough to be laying points vs a Card's team who I got a feeling get on track with a signature effort. 2nd straight roadie for NY, made more difficult by traveling to the far west. 

Leaving room for another play and the Sunday nighter where i think i like the over and the Jets. Still have to look at a few more things. ... [More]

nfl picks for week 1

I don't ever play futures, but i do like one this year...

 

Baltimore to win the Super Bowl 1/10

 

Thursday

 

#1 Minn/NO under 24.5 1st half 1.1/1

 

 BOL to all this season and may all your wagers win (except where we disagree of course)

MNF winner with write-up!

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What’s up donkeys! Had a great day yesterday, going 10-2 in the pro’s!

We’ve got a good one tonight. Last time these two met was week 6 in Tampa and the Panthers got rung-up for a 27-3. You think this one isn’t circled in red for the Panthers?? One thing I consider when I cap games is the line of scrimmage. Games are won and lost in the trenches. Taking a look at tonight’s lines, the Buc’s have D-line issues with DE Haye out and DE Adams dinged. That’s the equivalent of 20% of the D Line being down. Advantage = Carolina. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers D Line got dominated last time out. DE Pepper’s was ineffective, getting 3 tackles and 0 sacks. Since that TB game, the Panthers have out-rushed and won 5 of the following 6 opponents. RB Williams has 9 TD’s since that debacle in Tampa. Advantage = Panthers. Del Homey is not playing as well as Garcia, but the strength of this team is running the ball. Of late, the Panthers are gaining 6.2 yards per carry!

 

Some situational trends I uncovered in capping this game:

 

Panthers boast a 35-18 ATS mark

(66%) since ’98 after the holiday weekend

 

Carolina is 16-10 (62%) as a post-Thanksgiving weekend

... [More]