sergio1994's Blog

***Copa Mundial 2010***

By sergio1994 | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, June 10, 2010 09:32 PM   38 comments
Welcome to Copa Mundial 2010 Sud Africa 

No big write ups here...just the plays and what I'm thinking as we go along.

Spain +400 To Win the Cup

To advance out of group play:

Australia +230 (.43)
Denmark EVEN (1)
Chile -140 (1.4)

Total points;

S. Africa Under 3½ -130 (1.3)
Greece Over 3½ -1.02 (1.02)
USA Under 4½ -150 (1.5)
Australia Over 3 +106 (.94)
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sergio1994 says:
06/10/10 09:56PM
Mexico pk -118 (1.18)

I realize that it'll be a most hostile environment and the hosts can ride the wave of support for a while, but I just don't see S. Africa winning...not even here in the opener. I'm thinking, worse case scenario I'll get my play refunded.

Not sure if I'll have a play for the 2nd game. I think there's some value in seeing a tie @ +210, but i'll have to give some more thought.
sergio1994 says:
06/11/10 08:55PM
0-0-1

Day 2

Greece/S.Korea DRAW +200 (.5)
Argentina/Nigeria OVER 2.5 (1.15)

Note: I have Spain to win it all risking 2 units for 8

still giving the US/England game some thought
lutz says:
06/11/10 09:48PM
Good luck, Sergio!
sergio1994 says:
06/12/10 02:29PM
Eng/USA DRAW +305 (.4x)
sergio1994 says:
06/12/10 10:14PM
1-2-1 -.43

Slovenia pk 1.55/1
Serbia 1/1.25
Germany/Australia under 2½ 1.25/1  Pretty descent value on the under also. As Lee Corso says, I see this game "closer than the experts think"
sergio1994 says:
06/13/10 09:54PM

1-2 -1.25

We'll, those Germans certainly made a statement today didn't they. Guess we can stop talking about Ballack not playing

 

Netherlands/Denmark under 2½ 1.30/1

Japan vs Cameroon DRAW .5/1.13

Paraguay pk,+½  1/1.01

sergio1994 says:
06/14/10 09:54PM
2-1 +1

A pair of group stage team total goals prop that was just ripe for the picking...

N Korea UNDER 1½ 1.55/1
New Z under 1½ 1.05/1

Today's games offers little to get excited about. Going under especially in the 1st game of the day is a trend I'll ride for now.

I'll be interested to see Brazil's form. I can't imagine they'd be very interested in creaming Kim Jong Ill's red army of footballers My thinking is if Germany can spot 4 goals on an arguably better team in Australia, a better Brazil would present an even wider spread.

Ivory Coast responds well after fellow Africans Cameroon laid an egg vs Japan.

New

Zealand/Slovakia under 2½ 1.35/1
Draw (Ivory Coast vs Portugal) .5/1.13
Brazil -2½ 1/1.26

sergio1994 says:
06/15/10 07:55AM
adding;

Brazil/N Korea OVER 3 1/1.11
Dith says:
06/15/10 07:57AM

GL my friend 

sergio1994 says:
06/15/10 09:41PM
2-1-1 +1.13

How bout them N Koreans . They were not intimidated and did not back down. Well done . It seems like these guys are playing for more than just their soccer careers 

WED

Chile/Honduras UNDER 2,2½ 1.28/1 This'll be a hard fought match. I really feel that the value here is with Honduras +1, but I'd be playing against Chile advancing if I played that .

Spain/Switzerland UNDER 2½ 1.20/1 Switzerland is sound technically. Spain a heavy fave. Other heavy faves did not impress in their 1st game (England, Argentina, Brazil)

South Africa/Uruguay DRAW .5/1 Aside from Camaroon, Africans teams are outperforming their opponents thus far. We'll see if this holds in the second round of games.


Dith says:
06/15/10 11:39PM
Gl bro
sergio1994 says:
06/16/10 09:45PM
Dith Uruguay with an impressive showing today. Didn't see them, but something tells me I'll see them in the knock-out stages

2-1 +1.5

Thursday

Argentina 2-0 .2/1
 
A better effort is expected here.

Greece/Nigeria under 2 1.20/1

Two underperforming sides = 1-0 for somebody...

France vs Mexico DRAW 2 .5/1.05

Evenly fought match = draw.



sergio1994 says:
06/18/10 12:24AM
0-3 -1.9

Draw (Slovenia vs USA) .5/1.15 This game stays in the midfield for most of the day.

Germany/Serbia under 2½ 1.30/1 I think Serbia gets blanked 1-0 or 2-0

over 2½ ALGERIA vrs ENGLAND 1/1.05 I have England scoring 2.5 goals and Algeria scoring .5 goals. Either way, I like the over play better than betting on the Brits and whoever play keeper to keep a clean sheet, even with an inferior Algeria.
sergio1994 says:
06/18/10 10:01PM
2-1 +1.15

Felt like such a fool playing the over in the England game. LOL to them, their prize next round is perhaps their stiffest competition and a defacto elimination game. Have fun going home early to all your reasonably fair-minded fans England! 

SATURDAY

Denmark/Cameroon Under 2 1.13/1 Somebody's not scoring here. 1st goal wins!

Japan (Alt 1)/Netherlands (Alt 1)  Under 2½ 1.26/1 The Dutch blank the Jap's 2-0.

Ghana vs Australia Draw  .5/1.18 I do give the Aussie's hope to keep it square for 90 minutes. Value play here as Ghana is getting heavy support just because of what the Germans did to the Aussie's.

It's a draw/unders kind of day.


sergio1994 says:
06/19/10 03:29PM
2-0 so far but may lose my last one. hope both teams find some defense and stay off the scoreboard this half

SUNDAY

Slovakia/Paraguay DRAW .5/1.1
Italy & Brazil to win 1/1.09

May have a 3rd play but totals in the Brazil and Italy game may be tricky.
sergio1994 says:
06/19/10 08:55PM
2-1 +1.05

12-11-3 +.43 WC so far minus futures.
sergio1994 says:
06/19/10 09:33PM
upon second thought, I can take comfort that Italy can net 2 AT MOST and NZ gets blanked.

under 2½ NEW ZEALAND vrs ITALY 1.15/1
sergio1994 says:
06/20/10 11:20AM
whatever the result here. I'm assured of a loss. therefore, I'm making one added play to stem the tide...

Brazil 1st half (Alt 1) -½ 1/1.4
sergio1994 says:
06/20/10 10:32PM
2-2 +.9

Monday

Going back w/a 2 team parlay. This time, not including those lame Italians . It also includes a conviction play on Spain. If they are to advance, they'll need to get it going here.

Spain -2 & Portugal to win 1/1.58

Spain -2 1.1/1

Spain/Honduras over 2½ 1.40/1

Draw: 

Chile/Switzerland .5/1.08 I like Chile and gettting Suazo back will pay dividends. Still respecting the Swiss and giving them a punchers chance to keep this square. It's at least worth a half unit.


MWdePro says:
06/20/10 10:47PM

your wife is hot...........

sergio1994 says:
06/21/10 09:37PM
1-2-1 -1.55

Spain not converting that 3rd goal cost me a winning day Many opportunities throughout the game, Honduras hung on to keep it somewhat respectable. Oh well. I can't believe Wimbledon is going on! I might have to dip my toes in the tennis forum soon. Hearing Federer struggle in his 5 set opener had me salivating with the dogs out there lying in wait, just needing a shot

Nigeria vs South Korea DRAW .5/1.1 if either this or the next draw plays come in, I'll be.

France vs South Africa DRAW .5/1.1 The French are taking their quitter reputation to a whole new level .

Uruguay 

PK 1/1.06 Value play here as I feel Uruguay is still a bit of an unknown to the betting world.

ARGENTINA vrs GREECE under 2½ 1.20/1 Greece won't give in here. Argentina may rest a few players. I see a 1-0 result for Argentina.

sergio1994 says:
06/22/10 09:45PM
3-1 +2.56

USA win 1.02/1 US will win as they typically turn in their best and most complete effort in the final game

of the group stage.

Ghana/Germany

Over 2½ 1/1.01 Germany/Ghana may start off as a game where neither side take chances,

but i think the Germans will put up a pair of scores before making Ghana have

to respond with at least one of their own.

England/Germany wins 1/1.14 I think both Germany and England will win, but England may very well

lose - Ha! how about that for a predication!

Australia vs Serbia .4/1.02 Australia will battle to a draw, don't know how.

sergio1994 says:
06/23/10 10:00PM
2-2 +.74

Los Yankees made all of us sweat it out till the bitter end, but how sweet is to go from being eliminated to winning the group with one goal in stoppage time! As we wind down group play, the playoff/knockout rounds have already started for some teams, while others are playing out the side, like Cameroon and Netherlands.

only in action with half the games on Thursday. The addition of Pirlo for Italy should be enough to get them the W but it's not worth my $

Denmark vs Japan .5/1.1

New Zealand/Paraguay Under 2½ 1.28/1


 
sergio1994 says:
06/24/10 11:55AM

Denmark vs Japan DRAW .5/1.1

 

Yo Italy & France - na-na-na-na, na-na-na-na, hey-hey-hey, goodbye - YOU SUCK


sergio1994 says:
06/24/10 10:16PM
1-1 .5

Brazil 1/1.25 Even with reserves and without Kaka, Brazil gets it done here vs Portugal who blew their load on NK

Switzerland & Ivory Coast to win 1/1.14 Honduras and NK offer little competition today.

Chile +1 1/1.1 Spain continues to be overvalued. Chile has the motivation to not lose and to steer clear of being matched up with Brazil in the knockout round.
sergio1994 says:
06/25/10 10:16PM
0-2-1 -2

3-6 -3.3 group play futures

Welcome to the Knock out round 

Uruguay vs Korea Republic 1st Half DRAW 1/1

Ghana  PK 1st half 2.04/2
USA 2ND HALF .6/1.11
Draw USA vs Ghana .5/1.08

sergio1994 says:
06/26/10 10:49PM
3-1 +3.19

Draw Germany vs England .5/1.05

Argentina/Mexico UNDER 2½ 1.38/1
sergio1994 says:
06/27/10 08:55PM
0-2 -1.88

Netherlands -1 1.22/1
Netherlands & Brazil to win 1/1.26
Brazil/Chile over 2½ 3/3.60 This one could get ugly. This matchup screams up and down/end to end action as Chile's style does not change with their opponent. Problem is, the Selecau is near deadly in the counter attack role.
Brazil wins 3-1.
sergio1994 says:
06/28/10 10:47PM
2-0-1 +4.86

It's bittersweet to have my best day when Chile got predictably worked over and sent home in a cloud of gun smoke . upward and onward...

Tuesday

Spain vs Portugal DRAW .5/1.1
Paraguay vs Japan DRAW .5/1.1

Two competitive games, solid defensively. This is really just a bet that at least one of these to go to OT.
tdogsSC says:
06/28/10 10:49PM
sergio1994 says:
07/01/10 11:00PM
1-1 +.6

Holland/Brazil under 2½ 1.4/1
Uruguay vs Ghana .5/1.08
sergio1994 says:
07/05/10 11:02PM
2-0 +2

Draw (Netherlands 1st Half vs Uruguay 1st Half) 1/1.05

Netherlands Total Offsides/Uruguay Total Offsides

Under 4½ 1/1.08

sergio1994 says:
07/05/10 11:15PM
28-27-6
+10.03 excl futures
sergio1994 says:
07/06/10 10:20PM
1-1 +.05

Over 2½ SPAIN vrs GERMANY 1/1.2
   Both teams to score 1.2/1
sergio1994 says:
07/10/10 02:51PM
0-2 -2.2

Germany/Uruguay over 2/2.5 1.25/1

live bet placed minutes b4 Muller's goal 
sergio1994 says:
07/11/10 02:34PM

1-0

+1

 

WC Pick

Draw .5/1.2

sergio1994 says:
07/11/10 02:43PM
+ Spain to win the Cup 2 to win 8 units
sergio1994 says:
07/03/10 09:40AM
1-1 0-.32 (ghana pick was suppose to be DRAW)

Germany pk,+½ 1.12/1 I think Argentina is the favorite, but if they win i think it'll happen in OT/shootout. Germany does have a point in saying the Argentines are tempermental and impulsive. We saw Brazil lose composure yesterday after they let the Dutch back in the game with the own goal. It's unknown how the Argentines will react to playing from behind. One thing's for sure...the Germans are determined to life difficult today. 

Paraguay +½ 1.21/1 1st Half I like Paraguay to keep things square for a half. I don't like their chances in the 2nd as legs/fatigue may be an issue after their OT game with Japan and the inevitable subbing out of Torres for Llorente will be a double advantage for La Furia Roja in the 2nd.
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