shepherd's Blog
Posted Sunday, December 14, 2008 08:18 AM
Here we go... it's my favorite time of the year... Bowl Season! These are my best bets:
CFB Game of the Year (Citrus Bowl): Georgia (-7)
This one is all about matchups! The first matchup is an SEC team playing against a Big 10 team. I have not been big on Georgia this year (other than betting against them, for the most part), but this will be their time to shine. The SEC has dominated the Big 10 in major bowl games over recent years, and this is the best matchup pitting these two conferences this year. The second matchup is the one-dimensional Spartans offense against what has been an underachieving Bulldogs defense. Despite the fact that UGA didn't live up to the hype, they are still good enough to tee off on the vanilla style offense that MSU brings to the table. We saw two games this year where Mich St faced a defense that could shut down their running game, forcing them into 3rd and long situations where Hoyer had to try to bail them out (Ohio St and Penn St). Those games exposed the achilles heal of the Mich St offense (throwing the ball), and Georgia is a prime candidate to take advantage of this same weakness. The third matchup is the QBs. I always look for QB mismatches during bowl season. Teams with a solid QB excel over teams that struggle with their QB play. The matchup between Stafford and Hoyer is the most lopsided QB matchup available this season.... [More]
Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2008 03:04 AM
Ok, before i get into my Bowl Season picks and write-ups, here are some tips for handicapping Bowl Season.
1) Offenses prevail: there are a number of reason it plays out this way... first, the games are played in warm weather sites (and domes)... totals progressively drop at the end of the CFB season due to bad weather, and bettors tend to hang on to the most recent results... this creates some value in the Overs... second, because the matchups involve teams from different conferences, they are usually unfamiliar with one another... this provides schematic advantages for the offenses... third, it's Bowl Season! this means teams play loose... the pressure of conference titles and national championship races are gone, and the only thing to play for is this last game... players are happy to be where they are, and often get caught up in all of the hoopla... psychologically, this favors the offenses... lastly, the teams that get into the bowls are the teams that were succesful offensively during the season, meaning frequent matchups between offensive juggernauts... look for games where plenty of angles favor the offenses and bet the over... some games to consider: Ok St/Oregon, Rutgers/NC St, Boise/TCU, LSU/Ga Tech, Tulsa/Ball St, OU/Fla, Tx Tech/Ol Miss...
2) QBs Rule: this has been a very useful angle for me over the years... probably has something to do with #1 above... QB play is essential in bowl games...... [More]
Posted Wednesday, November 05, 2008 02:52 PM
Bounce-back game of the week: Georgia (-9.5)
In honor of my goal to get a bounce-back win this week, i'm going with a team that shares the same goal. The Dawgs got smacked around last week (like i believe i said they would), and they aren't looking like a pretty favorite this week on the road in the SEC. But Kentucky is really beat up. They have issues on both sides of the ball, and are set up to be a punching bag the rest of the way. We already saw what Florida did to them... Georgia won't match it, but they still have some serious talent on offense and should be able to take out some frustrations on a youthful and banged up defense...
Georgia 38-17
Big 10 game of the week: Penn St (-7)
As i look at what these teams have done, i am surprised that some people are calling for a possible upset in this one. What i see from Penn St is very impressive... prior to beating Ohio St, they had beaten their 7 Div 1 opponents by an average score of 42-12, with the closest being a 14 win at Purdue... What i see from Iowa is not that impressive... They have blowout wins over Wisconsin, Illinois and Fla Int, a close win over Iowa St (yuck!), and close losses to Pitt, NW, Mich St and Illinois... The toughest game Iowa had to play this year was a 13-16 loss at Michigan St. The toughest game Penn St had to play this year was a 13-6 win at Ohio St. Ohio St beat Mich St 45-7 at Mic... [More]
Posted Tuesday, October 28, 2008 01:22 AM
Best bet of the week: SJ St (-16.5)
Loving this spot for SJ St. Took a shot staying off the Spartans last week hoping they might lose badly and get good value this week against the Vandals. Idaho is one of those teams that makes betting fun. They got a predictable cover against the most disappointing team in CFB this year (Fresno St), and meanwhile SJ St got waxed by a very good Boise St team. San Jose is well coached, has a very good defense, and against a team like Idaho, will not have trouble scoring points. I would have considered betting this up to 24... loving it at 17 or less... nice bounce back win!
SJ St 38-10
Big 12 game of the week: Texas (-6)
Texas Tech's win against Kansas was impressive, but not as impressive as Texas' win against Oklahoma St. And what needs to be understood about that win is the fact that Okie St was successful because they were able to throw balance at Texas on offense, and play physical with them on defense, establishing a consistent pass rush, and holding the running game in check. These are things that Texas Tech cannot do. When Oklahoma State was forced to throw the ball, they were working into the strength of the Texas defense. Texas Tech doesn't have that kind of balance on offense, and can't play the physical style of game on defense to keep Texas from putting up a lot of points. If this line was... [More]
Posted Tuesday, October 21, 2008 08:29 AM
Best bet of the week: Troy (-23.5)
This game pits the best team in the Sun Belt against the worst team in the Sun Belt (the who?)... the Sun Belt. It's basically the Bible Belt conference but college football likes to keep religion out of it! That's too bad for North Texas because it will take an act of God to keep this game close. North Texas is giving up 50.7 points per game on "defense"... good enough for them to rank 120th in Div 1 (FBS) football... that's pretty bad considering i thought there were only 119 teams...
Troy 52-17
Big 12 game of the week: Oklahoma (-19)
This game gives us our first opportunity to bet on one of the Big 4 against the sieve that is the Kansas St defense. After two straight non-covers (the last one because of a meaningless garbage TD by Kansas in the final :30), the OU bandwagoners have left the building. This allows me to enjoy the mini-bar while i watch the Sooners shred this "defense" on each and every drive. Give the punter the day off, Stoops...
Okla 58-21
Mismatch of the week: Ball St (-23.5)
This isn't the MAC game of the week because that honor goes to CMich - Toledo, simply because the line is more favorable. But this game pits probably the best MAC team against the worst. EMich is another one of those bet against teams in CFB. Don't really need to look ... [More]
Posted Monday, October 13, 2008 02:03 PM
Best bet of the week: USF (-23.5)
this game represents something of a perfect storm of handicapping... all angles point to USF:
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USF is coming off of a bye
USF off a loss at home on Thursday night
USF 9 additional days to prepare (compared to 'Cuse)
USF solid defense and play-making QB
Syr on 2nd of back to back road games
Syr travels from far north to deep south
Syr off of a cover against over-rated WVa playing without Pat White
Syr one of the doormats of CFB
Syr one of the worst offenses in CFB
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this is one of the best bets on the board since week 3
USF 48-10
Pac-10 game of the week: Cal (-1)
as i pointed out last week, Arizona is one of the most over-rated teams in CFB... strength of schedule ranks 103... have not played a single respectable opponent, outside of Stanford (not THAT respectable), to whom they lost... i wish Ariz had won because i knew i was getting ready to go on a run of betting against them for about 6 straight weeks... Cal off of a bye, playing excellent football... i hate Tedford as a play-caller, but they have a lot of talent, speed and play-makers... they are a much better team than Arizona...
Cal 35-24
SEC game o... [More]
Posted Sunday, October 12, 2008 11:07 AM
CFB Season breakdown:
Phase 1 (Wks 1-3): easy pickins... lines aren't established yet, so they are soft... favorites dominate... i always kill these weeks...
Phase 2 (Wks 4-7): books and public catch up... good spot to find big upsets... dogs rule... this is my achilles heal in CFB... grind it out and avoid disasters...
Phase 3 (Wks 8-13): YES! thank GOD phase 2 is over! the first 2 months show us who's really who... now we know who to bet on, who to bet against... bet on the perennial powers and new elites when laying short lines... find live dogs against over-rated teams... look for the top 2-3 to have bullseyes on their backs... the public and books fall behind again, because they fail to correlate opponents... but not me! back on track...
Phase 4 (Wks 13-15): rivalries take center stage... weather becomes a big factor... gotta pick your spots here... all about line value... same rules apply from Phase 3, but books and public are caught up again, so this requires very precise handicapping... knowing your CFB history (rivalries, trends) is key! i do well, but proceed cautiously...
Phase 5 (Bowl Season): this is what it's all about... everything you've learned the entire season must now be applied... lots of great overs early on (up through Dec. 28)... for me, Phases 2-4 are just waypoints between Phase 1 and 5... build your bankroll in Phase 1... supplement it with good disc... [More]