Posted Sunday, December 14, 2008 08:18 AM
Here we go... it's my favorite time of the year... Bowl Season! These are my best bets:
CFB Game of the Year (Citrus Bowl): Georgia (-7)
This one is all about matchups! The first matchup is an SEC team playing against a Big 10 team. I have not been big on Georgia this year (other than betting against them, for the most part), but this will be their time to shine. The SEC has dominated the Big 10 in major bowl games over recent years, and this is the best matchup pitting these two conferences this year. The second matchup is the one-dimensional Spartans offense against what has been an underachieving Bulldogs defense. Despite the fact that UGA didn't live up to the hype, they are still good enough to tee off on the vanilla style offense that MSU brings to the table. We saw two games this year where Mich St faced a defense that could shut down their running game, forcing them into 3rd and long situations where Hoyer had to try to bail them out (Ohio St and Penn St). Those games exposed the achilles heal of the Mich St offense (throwing the ball), and Georgia is a prime candidate to take advantage of this same weakness. The third matchup is the QBs. I always look for QB mismatches during bowl season. Teams with a solid QB excel over teams that struggle with their QB play. The matchup between Stafford and Hoyer is the most lopsided QB matchup available this season.... [More]
Posted Wednesday, December 10, 2008 03:04 AM
Ok, before i get into my Bowl Season picks and write-ups, here are some tips for handicapping Bowl Season.
1) Offenses prevail: there are a number of reason it plays out this way... first, the games are played in warm weather sites (and domes)... totals progressively drop at the end of the CFB season due to bad weather, and bettors tend to hang on to the most recent results... this creates some value in the Overs... second, because the matchups involve teams from different conferences, they are usually unfamiliar with one another... this provides schematic advantages for the offenses... third, it's Bowl Season! this means teams play loose... the pressure of conference titles and national championship races are gone, and the only thing to play for is this last game... players are happy to be where they are, and often get caught up in all of the hoopla... psychologically, this favors the offenses... lastly, the teams that get into the bowls are the teams that were succesful offensively during the season, meaning frequent matchups between offensive juggernauts... look for games where plenty of angles favor the offenses and bet the over... some games to consider: Ok St/Oregon, Rutgers/NC St, Boise/TCU, LSU/Ga Tech, Tulsa/Ball St, OU/Fla, Tx Tech/Ol Miss...
2) QBs Rule: this has been a very useful angle for me over the years... probably has something to do with #1 above... QB play is essential in bowl games...... [More]